November 5, 2019 Elections

So we just went full circle as to what that single metric of approval rating means in the scheme of things. Does it matter what the opponents metrics are in the same arena at time of election?

Other much more researched and tracked statistics are in place leaning toward a Trump victory at this stage.

But as we keep discussing, it's way too early to prognosticate with any accuracy.

Many people at this point in 2011 didn't think Obama would pull up his approval by the election. He averaged underwater for his whole two terms, worse even than GW in the end.

It's certainly yet to be seen where numbers land a year from now. Originally Posted by eccielover

If you look at Trump's approval ratings while he has been in office the difference between his highest ratings and his lowest ratings have been the narrowest in the history of approval ratings. By far.

I agree that most models and predictions have Trump leading the 2020 presidential race. Just as the same models and predictions had Clinton ahead of Trump in 2016.

At this point we have our opinions. Sometimes supported by facts as one sees them and others supported by nothing more than "no one will vote for" a certain candidate.

I enjoy the back-and-forth, whether others agree or disagree with me.

So we just went full circle as to what that single metric of approval rating means in the scheme of things. Does it matter what the opponents metrics are in the same arena at time of election?

Other much more researched and tracked statistics are in place leaning toward a Trump victory at this stage.

But as we keep discussing, it's way too early to prognosticate with any accuracy.

Many people at this point in 2011 didn't think Obama would pull up his approval by the election. He averaged underwater for his whole two terms, worse even than GW in the end.

It's certainly yet to be seen where numbers land a year from now. Originally Posted by eccielover

Exactly. Following the polls a year out is a fools errand. Predicting how many electoral votes Trump will win is another waste of time. The only number I care about is 270. If Trump wins 370 great. It doesn’t make him more of a POTUS than if he wins 270.

And if he is drummed out of DC? Will that make him less of a POTUS? I think it may.

The approval ratings are based on polls. The same methodology has been used since approval ratings began during the Truman administration.

https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/...ked-questions/

Here are examples of questions used on certain surveys:

https://www.wufoo.com/gallery/templa...tial-approval/ Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

But again, my point what methodology or is it just "feeling" that says the approval ratings of the sitting POTUS are actually going to effect the voting?

If you look at Trump's approval ratings while he has been in office the difference between his highest ratings and his lowest ratings have been the narrowest in the history of approval ratings. By far.

I agree that most models and predictions have Trump leading the 2020 presidential race. Just as the same models and predictions had Clinton ahead of Trump in 2016.

At this point we have our opinions. Sometimes supported by facts as one sees them and others supported by nothing more than "no one will vote for" a certain candidate.

I enjoy the back-and-forth, whether others agree or disagree with me. Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

And yes "facts" are a tricky business. It's largely opinion.

And if he is drummed out of DC? Will that make him less of a POTUS? I think it may. Originally Posted by HoeHummer

When you get anywhere close to showing that the Senate is going to do that, come back and see us. Otherwise.

And if he is drummed out of DC? Will that make him less of a POTUS? I think it may. Originally Posted by HoeHummer

When you get drummed out of Eccie again what will be your new hand?

Your mum. Or your buttshole. You drone on about both ad nauseum. Both could double as troop carriers, by the way. LOLLING!

Your mum. Or your buttshole. You drone on about both ad nauseum. Both could double as troop carriers, by the way. LOLLING! Originally Posted by HoeHummer

Butthole fits perfectly!!!!!!!!

But again, my point what methodology or is it just "feeling" that says the approval ratings of the sitting POTUS are actually going to effect the voting?

And yes "facts" are a tricky business. It's largely opinion.
Originally Posted by eccielover

As I've pointed out -- several times -- since the time of Harry Truman when presidential approval ratings began, there has been a 100% correlation between approval ratings and the election of an incumbent POTUS: when positive the POTUS is reelected. When negative the incumbent POTUS loses.

On the other hand, if someone does not approve of Trump in a poll, that does not mean he/she will vote against Trump. And if someone approves of Trump in a poll that does not mean he/she will vote for Trump.

If any POTUS can reverse the approval rating fact cited, I think it would be Trump.

It is still a debate about an event a year in the future - and the DPST's are desperate for new candidates to counter the stable of Socialist idiots presented so far.

Bloomberg is anathema to the DNC - old, white male and Jewish.

Deval Patrick is more palatable to the DNC - and will have Obama's endorsement - they will likely see him as a 2020 Obama savior against Trump.

More DPST DNC race baiting plantation politics.

Exactly. Following the polls a year out is a fools errand. Predicting how many electoral votes Trump will win is another waste of time. The only number I care about is 270. If Trump wins 370 great. It doesn’t make him more of a POTUS than if he wins 270. Originally Posted by bambino

Yet Trump follows the polls on an almost daily basis. When Rasmussen shows him with a 50% approval rating, he mentions it. When FOX News polls, which have been kind to him in the past, show his support flagging, he criticizes them. Trump sees polls which showed Bevin losing in Kentucky by 17% and losing by a handful of votes after his campaign visit and takes full credit for it. Trump commented on Warren's rise in the polls and immediately attacked her in a rally in Louisiana. Trump is very aware of the impeachment polls.

In the 2018 and 2019 November elections, exit polls showed a major weakening of support among Republican voters in the suburbs, especially women.

"The strategy behind Trump’s sizable female staff is simple: optimize the campaign’s outreach to suburban women — an enormously important voting bloc — by having women oversee the outreach themselves."

So while you and others think following polls a year out from the election, Trump seems to think otherwise.

Yet Trump follows the polls on an almost daily basis. When Rasmussen shows him with a 50% approval rating, he mentions it. When FOX News polls, which have been kind to him in the past, show his support flagging, he criticizes them. Trump sees polls which showed Bevin losing in Kentucky by 17% and losing by a handful of votes after his campaign visit and takes full credit for it. Trump commented on Warren's rise in the polls and immediately attacked her in a rally in Louisiana. Trump is very aware of the impeachment polls.

In the 2018 and 2019 November elections, exit polls showed a major weakening of support among Republican voters in the suburbs, especially women.

"The strategy behind Trump’s sizable female staff is simple: optimize the campaign’s outreach to suburban women — an enormously important voting bloc — by having women oversee the outreach themselves."

So while you and others think following polls a year out from the election, Trump seems to think otherwise. Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

All politicians and the media breathlessly follow polls. They choose the ones that fit their narrative best. Trump knows today’s polls have no bearing on next years election. They just don’t.

All politicians and the media breathlessly follow polls. They choose the ones that fit their narrative best. Trump knows today’s polls have no bearing on next years election. They just don’t. Originally Posted by bambino

Then why does Trump follow them so closely and react to them?

If the polls have no bearing on next year's election he would ignore them and move on. He doesn't.

Then why does Trump follow them so closely and react to them?

If the polls have no bearing on next year's election he would ignore them and move on. He doesn't. Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

The media spouts the polls everyday. Mostly negative regarding Trump. They’re trying to shape public opinion. Trumps merely fighting back. He finds polls that are favorable to him. Just last week Warren was leading Iowa, this week it’s Mayor Pete. They don’t mean much until Election Day. Trump understands that more than anyone.

Then why does Trump follow them so closely and react to them?

If the polls have no bearing on next year's election he would ignore them and move on. He doesn't. Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Yeah SPEED this faux impeachment circus is getting funnier every day...CNN (no friend of Trumps) is now shaking their heads at the "STAR" witness...heard it from a friend who heard it from a friend!!!
If you think this isn't going to have any bearing on the election then your TDS is COMPLETE!!

I can't believe you're not up in arms about your precious house not get the people that elected them their monies worth. SPEED you're a poll conasiuor...what are the numbers of voters glued to their screen on this "historic occasion"???

You're awful silent about how proud (or dejected) you are about the complete crash and burn the house you are so proud of is in the process of complete MELTDOWN.

As I said to you before...if this is a good strategy for victory...I don't want to be on your side.

You're response to this will be to divert and minimize but reality is something that we all have to face...including you SPEED!!!

November 2020...where the rubber meets the road!!

What a tit!