I disagree. He's been wrong a lot. But when additional data became available he'd get back on the right track. This is far preferable to sticking to a position when you're wrong. And far, far preferable to going with your gut when you have no experience with and little knowledge of what you're dealing with.A nicely reasoned response.
There are some parallels between criticism of Fauci and criticism of forecasts, like the ones prepared by IHME/University of Washington, used to estimate cases, deaths, hospital bed and/or ventilator usage. IHME comes up with estimates based on the available data and specific assumptions. When the data changes or the assumptions change, they change their model. And when that happens their predictions can change radically. IHME has been kind of a laughingstock here, as people believed their numbers were far too pessimistic. Well, it turns out it's the other way around. For a given set of assumptions, I'd take their numbers over any of the self professed experts holding political positions. And similarly I'd believe Fauci over any of the politicians in the White House or state houses, even though Fauci has been wrong from time to time.
Fauci has shown himself to be flexible on re-openings, correctly cautioning the nation to proceed with masks and social distancing. Originally Posted by Tiny
But, I put the word "wrong" in quotes for a reason. Fauci did take care to hedge his bets and state that the projections could vary a lot depending on how people reacted to them.
Early projections were for 200K or more dead if NOTHING WAS DONE. Then after a month or so of lockdown, that got reduced to 63K deaths. But that was because people changed their behavior and bent the curve. In other words, we had some initial success.
And, as I and many others had predicted, the assholes on this board would use that success to claim that the danger of CV-19 was exaggerated. So the benefits of the lockdown were used as evidence that the lockdown wasn't needed.
But then, we dropped our guard. It wasn't just that we began reopening. It was that people were not wearing masks and not social distancing once the stores, restaurants and bars began to reopen. So, the cases started to take off again.
None of that can be blamed on Fauci. We have known all along - and some people conveniently forget or deny - that the trajectory of the disease changes as people change their behavior.
Fauci cannot control how people react, he can only advise based on how people react. So, he cannot really be wrong in that sense. But, I'm sure he is frustrated and depressed beyond belief that his warnings have not been sufficiently heeded and have been undermined to a large degree by Trump.
I don't remember if Fauci was one of the ones who said early on that masks weren't necessary. If he did, he was wrong. But the question remains whether that was deliberate or a good-faith mistake.
It is widely believed that early on disease experts may have deliberately lied and said that masks were unnecessary to prevent the general population from wiping out the mask supply and preventing the doctors and nurses from getting the supplies they needed. If so, it was a well-intentioned lie, but a lie nonetheless.
Alternatively, it could have been a good faith mistake if experts believed that the disease was not able to spread until you began to show symptoms.