We all know the economy will be the big issue in 2012- but we all so know that traditionally National Security has always been a big issue as well. Let's be honest traditionally Republicans have been the party that was "stronger" on defense and National security.
However, with all due respect Obama has done very well in this area that it's going to be hard for the GOP to make him look weak. I recall during the first or second GOP debate when the question was asked of national security nearly all the candidates (GOP)said Obama has not done a good job- but the facts say the opposite. Many GOP like Palin stated that Obama was leading from behind on Libya and Fox news hammered him- but look at the end result- a dictator is in hiding- Egypt got rid of their dictator and is heading towards a Democracy ditto for Tunisa. Syria's govt looks very vulnerable to being overthrown. Also, factor in the equation that the Obama administration has captured and/or killed more Al-Queada, Taliban militants/insurgents in 3 years than both Bush terms combined is a remarkable record. The biggest accomplishment is the killing of OBL- the face and voice of Al-Queada.
Today the 2nd or 3rd most important Al-Queada terrorist- depending on who you asked- Anwar al-Awlaki was killed. This only makes Obama look stronger on national defense and boosters his resume.
I am beyond convinced that if the U.S economy was stable or icking up huge steam and I think it could have if the GOP and Congress would get off their asses- but my feelings would be that Obama would win in a landslide in 2012.
What's going to hurt the GOP is that many americans believe that Obama has good intentions but most Americans realize that there is gridlock in Washington- specifically Congress.