Actually, you are wrong! I compliment those who are correct, unless, of course, they are predicting on a 50-50 event in which case there's an even chance to win or lose.
As for today's results: I've listened to a lot of "pundits" just like I did in 2016 and the anti-never Trumpers seem to be saying the same thing based on ..... "polls"! As a practical matter there is insufficient data upon which to make a legitimate "prediction" when races get within the margin of error (which is why it is called a "margin of error" BTW).
This election is breaking new ground. And I heard the flaw last night when one of the "pundits" started talking about "their turnout (Democrats) in the "early voting"! "Flaw" ... because I am a Democrat and I know some "Democrats" that voted early. I also know from them privately for whom they voted.
In most of these races that are within the margin of error based on the polling who ever PRE-GUESSES (it's not really a "prediction") the result is doing nothing more than tossing a coin. We see that a lot on Saturday and Sunday these days...and during the week.
If one has ever actually run a campaign (set the tone and strategy, then crunched the numbers) one is aware of the variables in the decision making that can CAUSE the results to go one way or another. The 2016 election is a CLASSIC EXAMPLE of poor decision making based on some weak assumptions.
While folks were marginalizing Trump and his Team as "jokes" and people to be disrespected, the Trump Team was approaching the electionS with a "marketing attitude" as though they were planning the development of a property. The Number One job in a "marketing strategy" is to determine "THE MARKET"!
He did. She didn't. And with all due respect, SpeedRacer, you didn't either. The bottom line is:
The 2018 MidTerms are: "Much Ado About Nothing"!
Originally Posted by LexusLover
Thank you for your civil response. I disagree with little in your post other than your final statement:
"The 2018 MidTerms are: "Much Ado About Nothing"!
If Democrats take control of the House, difficult as it was for Trump to pass legislation in his first 2 years with a Republican Senate and House, he will get much less passed in the next 2 years.
Most of your statements on predicting the outcome of the voting are correct. Although at the House level polling is much less meaningful than at the Senate level. I just find it fun and interesting to see what people believe will happen and why they believe it will happen. If I am right and others are wrong, I won't make a big, or even little, deal out of it.
This has been a very interesting campaign. Based on early voting, records will be set for a mid-term election. People are energized and that is good. Again you are correct in that there are many contests that can go either way in both the House and Senate and those races will determine who controls what. But I disagree with you if you think that the mid-term results won't have consequences for the next 2 years.