Here were the unemployment numbers at the end of 2019, before the onset of Covid:
Overall: 3.6%
Black Americans: 5.5%
Hispanic Americans: 4.3%
These were the lowest numbers in 50 years, since 1969!
I don't see Biden coming anywhere close to these numbers during the next four years, or the next eight years, if he's able to implement his platform. Why?
1. He has proposed a $15/hour minimum wage. He wants to apply this to everyone, including restaurant and bar workers who receive tips, many of whom do quite well, much better than $15/hour. Estimates are this will cost 700,000 jobs, just among those who work for tips. I suspect it will cost millions of jobs in total. Don't get me wrong, I've got no problem with a minimum wage. But it should be set at the local or state level. What works in New York City doesn't work in McAllen, Texas. And for that matter it should vary with economic conditions. My community could have easily supported a $15 minimum wage a year ago. Right now, given what's happened as a result of Covid, $15 would put a lot of employees out of work and a lot of business owners out of business.
2. He says he will shut down oil and gas drilling on federal leases, and in the longer term will put policies into effect to achieve "0" net carbon emissions. This would effectively shutter the oil and gas industry in the USA in the long term. Look for hundreds of thousands of lost jobs in the short term, and if future administrations and Congresses continue these policies, millions of jobs lost.
3. Biden will use the bully pulpit and probably get more people to use masks and social distance, which I believe will actually help preserve jobs. However, he'll also be promoting lockdowns more than Trump. I expect the net effect will be lost jobs.
4. Biden wants to increase the federal corporate tax rate to 27% or 28%. While a step backward, this by itself isn't extremely onerous. However, add in an average 5% tax at the state level, and the U.S. again will have one of the higher corporate income tax rates in the world. This will stifle employment as the government takes more money out of the private sector and shifts it to government to be used for who knows what. Higher tax rates on unincorporated businesses will also hurt.
5. According to Larry Summers, economic advisor to Democratic Presidents, when you add Biden's stimulus proposals to what we've already spent, we're covering 3X the output gap, being the GDP we lost from Covid. A lot of this money will end up in programs that will incentivize some people to avoid work. Not most people, but some.
6. Biden will ramp up regulation on business. This will cost jobs.
When unemployment fails to come down like it should, who will Democrats blame? You can look for hints from what happened during the Obama administration, and who they assigned the blame to then.
Originally Posted by Tiny
I think you have put together a solid rationale for your position, my thoughts in addition or in compliment
1. how a minimum wage increase will play out remains to be seen. a dramatic increase like that proposed, one in excess of a 100% increase, has a shock value to the economy. employees of small business and those of businesses that can be further automated in some way are likely to face uncertainty in their employment. few employees are at the exact minimum wage of $7.25. those that are, or are near the minimum, are likely to lose their jobs. why? because they aren't worth $15.
there is word for the suppression of wages below the "worth" or contribution a worker makes. its called monopsony. its where a business has the power to make an "excess" profit on some workers. in other words the worth of a minimum wage worker may be more than $7.25. in those cases an incremental rise in the minimum wage might not greatly affect employment. but a shock increase to $15 seemingly would. mom and pop will sweep their own floors for that.
and what is the effect of more continued and increased illegal immigration on employment coupled with a shock increase in minimum wage?
and what of the human cost? the training of kids to the work ethic and to see them rise. they might never get a chance at this rate
2. oil and gas, you have it pegged. and energy, and its attendant cost, has its reach in all areas of life, so its not just the direct employment, for, as costs rise, employment in many areas are affected. certainly the cost of energy will increase, and might increase dramatically
like a shock increase in the minimum wage, shock increases in energy costs take time to absorb and in the interim, jobs are lost
you may recall the oil embargo under carter and the fuel shortages where gasoline was rationed and there were lines for blocks for the few stations that were open- that was a job killer but not so bad for the domestic oil industry
and of course selective blackouts, that may be needed as a transition takes place, like what happens in California, effect businesses and some may well shutter and there goes employment.
ive also read that the energy required to make energy efficient equipment negates a lot of the carbon savings ..don't know myself
you know the blackout in north korea at night , where satellites reveal the stark differences between the two koreas? is that our future under these scoundrels?
4. the tax rate increase- its also the capital of multinationals that wont be retuned to the united states
5. the misallocation of resources occur when government picks winners and losers, and as the dimocrats have shown in many ways, the money gets concentrated in the wrong pockets and the stated intention is not the actual intention and result
6. regulation drives out, or keeps out, the start up and small business and is great for bidens corporate cronies, which in turn limits employment
all in all, biden and those behind him are not employment friendly
I'm reasonably confident that their goal is universal income and control not employment
the only governor on them is how to not lose elections while they work toward their ultimate goal, that is until they can fully eliminate honest elections
