I think a carbon tax that would raise enough money to significantly reduce the deficit would be even harder to sell to the American public than a VAT. No one in the world has such a tax with draconian enough rates to make a difference. At least with a VAT, politicians can say, "Look over there! Everbody else is doing it. We have to get in the game!"
Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight
Not to mention that I've yet to hear a proposal for a carbon tax which wouldn't do bad, bad things to the energy market.
And the guys who don't live in the real world and cluelessly apply static analysis always grossly overestimate how much you can collect from the affluent by jacking up tax rates to confiscatory levels. A 50% federal bracket would mean that some taxpayers in states that impose a state income tax would be in the 60% or higher marginal tax bracket. Don't you think many of them would start doing something in the way of tax avoidance?
Too right. It's the nature of the beast. Taxation has a negative effect on consumption - just look at cigarette taxes. About three years ago I wrote an article on politicians complaining that school funding was decreasing due to portions of that funding coming from inflated cigarette taxes. While they gave lip service to cigarette taxes being a way to make people go healthy, they were shocked - shocked! - that revenues were declining year after year with the new taxes. And since that's how they planned to fund educational programs, they were caught with their pants down and no money in the kitty. (Smoke! It's for the children.)
Failure to learn from experience seems to be a requirement for the job. Income and consumption are not nearly as inelastic as assumed when politicians start counting all the money they plan to rake in.
Look what happened in the 1970s, when the marginal tax rate was 70%. The tax code shoved hundreds of billions of dollars into malinvestment such as tax shelters that made no real economic sense other than to reduce the tax burden on its investors. Is the act of diverting capital from its most productive uses good for anybody? (And the extremely high tax rate didn't really raise all that much money. Hardly anyone actually paid it.) When you start jacking up rates on the taxable income of high earners, you'll be surprised how quickly some of it pulls a disappearing act, one way or another.
IIRC, that's a direct reason Reagan was so applauded for increasing revenues by
lowering taxes. People in the higher brackets rescued their money from stagnation and put it to work now that it wasn't simply going to be pissed down a government rathole. Granted, I was four years old when he took office so my understanding might not be perfect.
Part of the problem today is that a lot of capital has gone on vacation. If we persist by stacking up even more bad economic policies, some of that capital might simply choose to extend its vacation.
Two words: Capital controls.
Your point as I understand it is that even though taxes on those in the lower income ranges haven't been imposed as yet, they're coming one way or another. People in that part of the income strata will eventually be taxed as highly as those in typical European social democracies.
Exactly. I remember trying to explain to a stripper (long story) why the stimulus checks weren't largesse. The lightbulb of understanding finally went on when I told her it was as if the federal government had taken out a loan from the Chinese in her name, at an interest rate they determined, without her say.
"Ah. So... I have to pay that money back?"
"Yep."
"That sucks."
In oversimplified terms, all these unfunded liabilities are little more than "No money down! No payments until 2011!" As a business owner, you already know that merely because the payments are delayed doesn't mean the liability isn't on the books.
Current US politics is predicated on the dream that there really is such a thing as a free lunch. The rich will pay for it. Sin taxes will pay for it. Insurance companies will pay for it. Your employer will pay for it. Nothing that will affect you, perish the thought!
People seem blissfully unaware of this issue. A VAT will obviously create headwinds for the economy that will last for many years. It's going to be a painful adjustment. But doing nothing at all and just letting the deficit crisis fester would be manifestly worse. The first time a Treasury auction didn't go well could cause a level of panic that would make the late 2008 financial near-meltdown pale in comparison.
Damn skippy. The fallout would be biblical. And perhaps because I am such a pessimist these days, I don't see even the VAT buying us out of this end game. China just had a failed auction and they're our largest creditor. Our spending as percent of deficit is 11%; Greece's is 12.4. I think we'll be there before a VAT can do any effective good.