Death Game Estimates, to 12/31/2021:So no . . .
Jacuzzme: 41,806
Friendly Fred: 50,000
Dilbert Firestorm: 80,000
Dr. Anthony Fauci: 150,000 (4)
Dr. Deborah Birx: 172,000 (4)
Tiny: 260,000
eccieuser9500: 323,001
Dr. James Lawler: 480,000
adav8s28: 1,569,600 Originally Posted by Tiny
Does going over eliminate you, like Let’s Make a Deal or whatever that is? Originally Posted by Jacuzzme. . . The Price is Right rules?
April 12, 2020 UpdateBut doesn't the IMHE model only estimate through 8/4/2020 and you wanted predictions through 12/31/2021?
Predicted Deaths from Covid-19 in the United States of America
University of Washington IHME Model: 68,841 (1)
The Waco Kid Italian Extrapolation: greater than 110,511 (2)
South Korean Extrapolation: greater than 1,420 (3)
(1) Assumes four types of social distancing occur throughout the United States. Deaths projected to August 4, 2020
(2) Covid-19 deaths to date in Italy increased by the ratio of the population of the USA (327.2 million) to Italy (60.5 million), or 5.4X
(3) Covid-19 deaths to date in South Korea increased by the ratio of the population of the USA (327.2 million) to South Korea (51.5 million), or 6.4X
Death Game Estimates, to 12/31/2021:
Jacuzzme: 41,806
Friendly Fred: 50,000
Dilbert Firestorm: 80,000
Dr. Anthony Fauci: 150,000 (4)
Dr. Deborah Birx: 172,000 (4)
Tiny: 260,000
eccieuser9500: 323,001
Dr. James Lawler: 480,000
adav8s28: 1,569,600
(4) average of high and low estimates
Dilbert is also predicting 90 million infected.
Still looking good. The IHME model is up a bit from the last two updates, which both came in around 60,000 to 62,000 deaths. Right now Dilbert and Friendly Fred are looking good, and Jacuzzme has a good chance as well. Originally Posted by Tiny
But doesn't the IMHE model only estimate through 8/4/2020 and you wanted predictions through 12/31/2021?That is correct, the IHME estimate is through 8/4/2020 and predictions are through 12/31/2021. The big consideration is that the IHME forecast assumes 4 types of social distancing are maintained for the duration, and that's not going to happen.
That's a period that would include several additional outbreaks that are likely to occur. Originally Posted by eccielover
That is correct, the IHME estimate is through 8/4/2020 and predictions are through 12/31/2021. The big consideration is that the IHME forecast assumes 4 types of social distancing are maintained for the duration, and that's not going to happen.Yeah, I have no faith in the Chinese giving anything even close to reflective of actual numbers. Same with a number of other countries.
Sanjay Gupta on CNN this morning said he spoke with the guy at IHME who's running the project, who said 90 new cases per day after things settle down might be reasonable. I think he'd mean assuming we maintain some level of social distancing, maybe up to what we have now.
Their forecast doesn't show new cases, but does show hospital beds going to "0" on July 11. This is inconsistent with 90 new cases per day. Why? My guess would be they're still using Wuhan as a model for what happens later on after the peak, and new cases there may have gone to "0". Of course, the Chinese may be giving false statistics, and they've definitely got a police state, so you'd think we couldn't expect the same outcome here. Originally Posted by Tiny
bump Originally Posted by dilbert firestormBump.
It's going to need a lot of them to make 12/31/2021. Originally Posted by eccieloverI'm sure Tiny will bump this a few more times.
You’re the favorite. Unfortunately eccieuser and I still have a shot at winning Originally Posted by TinyShocking to think that almost a third of a million would die in the U.S. alone. Second and third waves of infections and deaths will happen when governors ease restrictions. By New Year's Eve 2021, testing and treatment should finally be routine.
Listening to NPR or something on C-SPAN, I heard a Russian journalist explain the medical practices of physicians diagnosing cause of death. Generally, doctors claim a failure of a major organ or system as cause. Leaving lots of questions about statistics in their country. Maybe also in former Soviet strongholds. Thought it was interesting. Originally Posted by eccieuser9500Yeah, there's some conspiracy theory going around that coronavirus deaths are wildly overstated. It's the other way around, and not just in Russia:
The projections vary substantially — with the most pessimistic forecasting a total death toll of 120,000 by June 6 and the most optimistic forecasting 103,000 deaths by that date. But the models have been inching closer to each other. Over the past several weeks, the distance between the highest and lowest estimates has halved from a gap of 36,000 deaths two weeks ago to a gap of 17,000 deaths in the most recent update released Tuesday.
