Here come the tax hikes

Oh and you can't be talking about posters Moms. you get points for that junior. I'd hate to see you join banbino Originally Posted by WTF

Relax, I never reviewed your mum, although she always begged me to write one. If the mods gave out points for lying, you'd never get out of the eccie starting gate!

And btw, I'm not your junior. I'm senior to you in every way - temperamentally, financially, intellectually, in physical stature, maturity, integrity and stamina... to name but a few of the many qualities where you lag far behind, punk.

Did you guys miss the part where the heavy goods and manufacturing sectors already have inflation, starting back in 3q20.
Seriously, lock in your house mortgages now.
Chips are in short supply
Iron is in short supply
Aluminum is in short supply
Lumber is in short supply
Don't any of you folks see any of the CBOT writeups?
And last, apparently intelligence in the Dims is in short supply as otherwise they wouldn't be dumping another 1.9 trillion of "spending" priorities (pork) into the economy. All that's actually needed is small amounts of targeted assistance. Originally Posted by Unique_Carpenter

You have more than enough company in agreement.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/07/inve...ndi-warns.html


Moody’s Analytics Mark Zandi believes Wall Street is significantly underestimating the seriousness of an inflation comeback, and he warns it will affect every corner of the market — from big tech to cyclical trades.

Ok, I've had several pms asking what CBOT is. Seriously? Damn. And some of you spout off as if... nevermind.

Chicago Board of Trade.
They are the marketplace for commodities futures on nearly anything. Which includes US Treasurys, any metal, most agriculture, even bitcoin, etc.
I've taken a few college Economic Professors onto the floor and each has had an epiphany.

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You have more than enough company in agreement.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/07/inve...ndi-warns.html


Moody’s Analytics Mark Zandi believes Wall Street is significantly underestimating the seriousness of an inflation comeback, and he warns it will affect every corner of the market — from big tech to cyclical trades. Originally Posted by WTF

Please note that Zandi is the guy whose analysis was pointed up by Nancy Pelosi about 10-11 years ago as an argument undergirding the notion that food stamp dispensation was a great "jobs program." (Yes, seriously!) Zandi had put out some "anaysis" purporting to show that spending on food stamps produces a fiscal multiplier of about 1.7, and follow-on models "showed" that lots of jobs would be created thereby. I don't know anyone who really takes this guy seriously.

Nonetheless, on the current inflation (or "reflation") issue, he has a point -- as there seems to be as much angst about the specter of inflation as anything else that might be hiding out there in the financial landscape.

Indeed, numerous factors point to a powerful reflation, as the pandemic (hopefully) winds down and the world normalizes.

My take:

Inflation is most likely to be a 2021- early 2022 story only, as an economy stimulated in unprecedentedly massive fashion begins to choke on the declining marginal productivity of debt accumulation and returns to its previous slow-growth track. If progressives try to enact tax increases of the sort that would actually decrease the deficit to a significant degree (very doubtful, obviously!), prospects for sustained growth would slow even more.

A couple of views:

Ed Yardeni usually has a pretty good take on current economic and market issues.

http://blog.yardeni.com/2021/02/infl...iscussion.html

The "4 D's" -- I hope this isn't sort of like the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse!

Ken Fisher's shop points out that much of what we are likely to see in the near term is a "base-effect bump."

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en...mp-coming-soon

A lot of financial journalists and "pseudo-economists" like Mark Zandi either overlook, or don't understand, the skewness inherent in charts and data sets produced during abnormal times.

Conclusion: We are likely to see current inflation, which might be more reasonably characterized as "reflation," followed by years of disinflation or very low inflation after all the massive "stimulus" can no longer be sustained.

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I believe Midnight said something to the effect of we've got the most progressive tax system in the developed world. And I specifically remember him posting a graph showing how the tax system is very regressive in France, and very progressive in the USA. Originally Posted by Tiny

Sorry, I meant to reply to this earlier but forgot.

This may be the article containing the graph you mentioned:

https://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2...ig-government/

It was posted more than ten years ago, but I doubt the distribution has changed all that much.

While the tax code, in the aggregate, is progressive in the US (although not nearly as much so as it might seem if you look only at the federal income tax), it is highly regressive in France -- as it is in every other European social democracy.

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Opps

Ok, I've had several pms asking what CBOT is. Seriously? Damn. And some of you spout off as if... nevermind.

Chicago Board of Trade.
They are the marketplace for commodities futures on nearly anything. Which includes US Treasurys, any metal, most agriculture, even bitcoin, etc.
I've taken a few college Economic Professors onto the floor and each has had an epiphany. Originally Posted by Unique_Carpenter

Tell us who sent the pm's.

Oh wait, let me guess, lustylad, lustylad and lustylad

Tiny and Captain - I am not anywhere near the economist you two are
Thank You for constructive posts without the belittling, insulting, arrogant/ insecure mindset of teh DPST 'cancellers'
I appreciate the education and learning from you two !!!!!!!

Midnight,
There's a huge difference between consumer inflation, the numbers of which are frequently jacked with by politicians, and what the reality is in manufacturing.
Simply note that there is a time lag, and, no matter what the politicians get the newsies to report, the reality does surface.

And btw, reflation is a disregarded word in the world of hard cash used to purchase commodities.

Wtf,
Not those guys.

Midnight,
There's a huge difference between consumer inflation, the numbers of which are frequently jacked with by politicians, and what the reality is in manufacturing.
Simply note that there is a time lag, and, no matter what the politicians get the newsies to report, the reality does surface.

And btw, reflation is a disregarded word in the world of hard cash used to purchase commodities. Originally Posted by Unique_Carpenter

Forget all that.... tell us lustylad sent you a pm!

UC of course there is inflation percolating ... the government has thrown 5 trillion into the mix in the last year. Not targeted enough in my view but you make hay while there is daylight.

^ months ago wood prices started to rise. Why?.. because people were stuck at home and decided to do some home additions and manufacturing had been shut down. Oil is on the rise. Why? ...he Saudis picked a brilliant time to show the frackers here in the States just how much sway they still had!

Yes WTF,
Very perky.
The dims show their cluelessness twofold.
First, dumping another 1.9 trillion. Geeze. This is more than the annual gnp of all the countries of the world except the top 8. About a tie with Italy at 9th place.
2nd, it's a worldwide economy. The Dims do a huge disservice to the usa by rendering us jobs & businesses unable to compete in a worldwide economy cause the us population is used to the social subsidies.

Ok, I've had several pms asking what CBOT is. Seriously? Originally Posted by Unique_Carpenter

Wtf uses it all the time... as in "Have you met my CBOT (Cocksucking Boyfriend Over There)?

Wtf uses it all the time... as in "Have you met my CBOT (Cocksucking Boyfriend Over There)? Originally Posted by lustylad

I wouldn't have to ask YOU that!

You just begging for points aren't ya
.

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Midnight,
There's a huge difference between consumer inflation, the numbers of which are frequently jacked with by politicians, and what the reality is in manufacturing.
Simply note that there is a time lag, and, no matter what the politicians get the newsies to report, the reality does surface.

And btw, reflation is a disregarded word in the world of hard cash used to purchase commodities. Originally Posted by Unique_Carpenter

First, of course there's a big difference between headline consumer inflation and the "realities" of manufacturing, whatever they may be at any given point. I didn't say there wasn't. What I did say is that it's widely considered to be more likely than not that possible headline CPI inflation appearing during the next two or three quarters is likely to be something of a one-off, and not sustained. That's my view. This ain't a redux of the 1970s.

Second, I'm curious as to how in the world you could have come up with the notion that "reflation" is somehow a "disregarded" word. For the last couple of months, one has hardly been able to read economics, finance, or market commentary for five minutes without seeing the word reflation. I've probably read the word more times in the last month than during the whole previous decade!

For instance, WTF mentioned lumber. The 2020 lumber price charts are really something else! After the initial early spring panicky plunge (like the one that occurred almost everywhere else), the price went right through the stratosphere as the residential real estate market went bonkers. A lot of people stuck at home did additions as well -- rooms, decks, etc. But what happens when households burn through their consumption desires?

For anyone still not convinced that this isn't the 1970s, and that inflation is baked into our future, here's a point to ponder:

Check the track divergence between the 5-year breakeven and the 5-year, 5-year forward:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIE

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIFR

Notice something interesting?

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Chicago Board of Trade.
They are the marketplace for commodities futures on nearly anything. Which includes US Treasurys, any metal, most agriculture, even bitcoin, etc.
I've taken a few college Economic Professors onto the floor and each has had an epiphany. Originally Posted by Unique_Carpenter

Used to have a condo a couple blocks away from there. Lots of good quick food in the area. Wonder how things look now that Mayor Beetlejuice has strangled the city with lockdowns.