My problem with tiny's argument is that our level of saving doesn't drive the trade deficit; rather, the trade deficit drives our need to offset it with capital inflows. (The tail doesn't wag the dog.) Tiny is correct when he says at the end of the day everything has to balance out mathematically. But we have no problem attracting enough capital to plug the holes in our trade in manufactured goods. And that capital is mostly foreign money seeking a safe haven or higher returns in the US, not borrowings from China or other problematic sources.
Originally Posted by lustylad
LustyLad, I'm reluctant to argue with you, because you know a ton about this. I've read several articles written by economists who argued low national savings is the main reason or one of the main reasons for our current account deficit. They're probably not as smart as you though -- and I'm not being facetious.
You're undoubtedly right that we are better able than other countries to "attract enough capital to plug the holes in our trade in manufactured goods." There are other countries, with smaller current account deficits, that could not plug the hole and suffered mightily as a result - over the last 30 years, Indonesia, Argentina and Russia come to mind. But there's something magical about the U.S. dollar.
China holds $1.2 trillion in U.S. treasuries, not a lot compared to the total $15.3 trillion held by the public. And indeed a lot of investors in U.S. debt aren't problematic. Can we count on this forever? That the dollar will be the primary reserve currency and people in Latin America, Africa, etc. will prefer dollars instead of Euros, Swiss Francs, gold, whatever? That the dollar will retain its magic? Maybe. Or maybe not. In the early 80's it looked like it was losing it. I wonder if we start running up huge debt to the rest of the world if we could be putting ourselves at risk, like other countries do.