the excess deaths method is false. i can post many articles of over counting. do you want me to go there? let me know. as we all know, there is an incentive financially to count just about any death as covid related, in large part due to state and local decisions to halt almost all medical procedures. that was out of Trump's control despite many (well all 5 of the trump trolls) here claiming otherwise. he isn't the dictator the left want to say he is. maybe he should be? Biden claiming he'd issue all sorts of nationwide mandates shows what an idiot he is, as he has limited at best control over the states. you'd think he'd know that ..
Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid
I agree 100% that Trump isn't a dictator. The excess deaths method sidesteps the uncertainties that you're pointing out. Basically you look at how many people died this year from all causes and subtract how many died during the same period in past years. The problem is that there's a delay in when the death certificates come into the federal statisticians and so the CDC and others have had to estimate the number of excess deaths. Right now I can only find total deaths in the USA through March. Anyway about April or May of next year we can get the authoritative number for 2020, compare to deaths in past years, and you or I or anyone else who wants to can come up with a pretty good estimate of excess deaths. And I'd bet the number of excess deaths will be close to or greater than reported Covid 19 deaths at 12/31/2020.
forget Wuhan. they covered up the real death count by a mile. some reports claim 250,000 died in Wuhan alone. based on reports that the 8 or so crematoriums in Wuhan ran around the clock and that shipments of urns were in the range of 25,000 and up for each of them. you do the math. 250,000 is a low ball in my opinion even if the totalitarian state of China did implement a near total lockdown and prevented it from being much worse over all of China.
Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid
There are 11 million people in Wuhan. They're not as fat on average as Americans, they're younger, and less likely to have diabetes, hypertension, heart problems, etc. Take 250,000 deaths, divide by 11 million people, and you get an infection fatality rate of 2.3%. This is much higher than what you or I think is reasonable. And it assumes 100% of the population got Covid, which also is very unreasonable.
Or look at it from another angle. I see press reports from around mid April where the Chinese adjusted the estimated death toll from Covid 19 in Wuhan upwards from 2579 to 3869, to account for people who died at home and weren't tested. Lets round up to 4000, to conservatively estimate people who died after mid April. Assume the infection fatality rate is 0.5%. 4000 / 0.005 = 800,000 people infected. That's 7.3% of the population, maybe not unreasonable considering that the Chinese locked up people in their own homes not long into the epidemic. They crammed most of the epidemic into a month and around 360 people per million died. In Texas, we've had about the same death rate so far, 400 deaths per million, spread out over months, and some hospitals in South Texas and the big cities became overloaded. I think the Chinese did underestimate the number of deaths in Wuhan, but not wildly so.
[COLOR="blue"]well that's the commie way. deny, deny and deny. they will pay a huge price because it's already causing a global shift away from reliance on Chinese manufacturing. they are wildly underestimating the death count by your very words .. it's the commie way.
they allowed this to spread for several reasons. soft rebooting their house of cards economy by crashing the world economy. it ended their Hong Kong problem where they were on the verge of having to use military force to suppress it. they also wanted to disrupt the US election hoping Trump doesn't get re-elected because he is kicking their commie asses on trade.
they want Biden who like Obama and Bill Clinton will suck their little commie cocks (could have said tiny but i like you too much for that) but they won't get it. Trump will win re-election because Biden and the DemTards are helping him even if they don't realize it. all these riots in Democratic cities proves what idiots they are.
it's playing right into Trump's hands.
His Regal Majesty the Lord Emperor Donald, Supreme Ruler of the Multiverse!
Long may he reign!
Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid
Unfortunately, because it's not true, many people are putting most of the blame on Trump for our poor performance during this epidemic. And so Trump is trying to pass the blame to China. Yeah, like I said and like you said, the way China handled this early on was horrendous, and if they'd been on top of it maybe the Covid 19 wouldn't have spread to the rest of the world. But why has our response been so poor compared to most of the rest of the world? Well, you can blame the CDC, the FDA, the Department of Health and Human Services, Trump, Cuomo, the other Governors, the State Health Departments, the Health Care system in general, and most of all many Americans who were too stupid or lazy to take common sense measures to avoid transmitting the virus. At the risk of sounding racist, a large part of the citizenry has been acting like Brazilians, the Peruvians, the Spaniards, the Italians and the Mexicans in how they're dealing with this. When this is over and done with, we'll probably be in there with them in terms of the percentage of the population who die and the negative effects of the crisis on our economies.
