I do not "cherry-pick" numbers. I use FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics which average together ALL polls done by ALL polling companies. The average by those 2 sources is -12.3% and -10.8% respectively, with both sources showing a significant drop in Trump's ratings over the past few weeks. If I was to cherry-pick, I would cite a poll by Morning Consult which has Trump at -23% approval rating.
No POTUS has won reelection with a negative approval rating. That is fact. Trump currently has a negative approval rating. That is fact. You have to go back almost a solid moth to find any poll in which Trump is positive in ANY poll on approval ratings.
At no time have I said Trump's approval rating will be negative on November 3rd. I believe it will be but we shall see. I have also stated several times that if any POTUS could win with a negative approval rating, it would be Trump.
Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX
Again, you are playing basically with numbers at this point.
Both GW Bush and Obama had just squeaked on 50% approval ratings at their reelections. GW reasonably close to 50% during the entire year of his reelection, while Obama was closer to 45% for most of the year leading up to reelection and on only jumping to 50% right before.
Trump is sitting about 42% where Obama was at 46% at similar times. Well within the margin of error of the polling.
And if you are looking historically, Trump's favorability according to RCP was -21% at about a 37% favorability rating and he won the election.