Polls are polls. I usually go to 538, but nobody has proven to be a super accurate poll provider relative to prediction of outcomes. 2016 proved that, and so did 2020.
Originally Posted by eyecu2
No, not all polls are equal. 538 is laughable. Some have proven to be very unreliable. Hell Fox News polls are unreliable. That said Trafalger has been one of the most accurate in 2020 and this primary season.
There is a reason why so many get it wrong.
First many oversample Democrats
Second some have an inherent bias
Third - and this is from the Director of one polling firm:
In 2020 people who supported Trump or espoused conservative values out of step with “Woke” culture found themselves being “canceled” or “doxed”. This led to “hidden voters” that “most” polling under counted, therefore Trump support in key battleground states exceeded expectations.
Now that the Biden administration has essentially classified “MAGA Republicans” as a threat to democracy marshaling federal law enforcement to focus on them. This move has created a new type of voter that will be even harder to poll or even estimate. I call this new group “submerged voters”. They aren’t putting stickers on their cars, signs in their yards, posting their opinions, or even answering polls. At this point I think it’s fair to say that Biden’s pursuit of and attacks on “MAGA Republicans” has created an army of voters who will be virtually impossible to poll (even for us) and more difficult still to estimate.
The 2022 Republican turnout will likely be higher than any of the polls or models are showing. All polls (including ours) will understate the impact of these “submerged voters”.