1st 2012 Prediction - Iran and Israel

In public, the Israelis will be condemned by the United Nations.
Protest will erupt in all the Arab countries. They will ask for the
destruction of Israel. They will seek revenge.

In private, they will get hand-shakes from those same people
and say 'Good job'.. Originally Posted by kingorpawn

That applied in the 1980s Osirik strike because it was five planes and one gravity bomb involved.

But this thing would be striking a dozen or more points [plus countless air-defense targets] with the whole of the Israeli airforce and re-fueling tankers they don't even have plus an entire fleet of intermediate-range ballistic missiles and furthermore many Israeli pilots will be captured by the Iranians which the Israeli public will never live with...

It wouldn't be a strike....

It would be a war....


ps..
This is why every military expert is saying, "no way Jose."

Oh and just one more thing....
In 1967 the Israelis struck the Egyptians by flying around the west side of Egypt and then popping up from behind them. That's not an option this time unless the Israelis intend to fly all the way to Pakistan and then strike from the east!

The Iranians would have a field day shooting down precious Israeli planes and crewmen.

That applied in the 1980s Osirik strike because it was five planes and one gravity bomb involved.

But this thing would be striking a dozen or more points [plus countless air-defense targets] with the whole of the Israeli airforce and re-fueling tankers they don't even have plus an entire fleet of intermediate-range ballistic missiles and furthermore many Israeli pilots will be captured by the Iranians which the Israeli public will never live with...

It wouldn't be a strike....

It would be a war....


ps..
This is why every military expert is saying, "no way Jose."

Oh and just one more thing....
In 1967 the Israelis struck the Egyptians by flying around the west side of Egypt and then popping up from behind them. That's not an option this time unless the Israelis intend to fly all the way to Pakistan and then strike from the east!

The Iranians would have a field day shooting down precious Israeli planes and crewmen. Originally Posted by theaustinescorts

The Israelis are going to strike first with electronic warfare. They'll knock out their radars, electronics, etc. The Iranians will not be able to respond.
Benjamin Netanyahu has already said striking Iran is not a difficult operation. He said, they can do it and
it would be even easier for the United States to do it.

My prediction is that the government will continue to rob us and not do anything to help the economy....Obama will still be only half black.

My prediction is that the government will continue to rob us and not do anything to help the economy....Obama will still be only half black. Originally Posted by Wyldeman30

I like the way Mr. Wyldeman30 puts things.. Especially, the last comment.

Obama will continue to blame Bush for everything wrong and take credit for everything that is good.

At night, a B-2 is invisable in every sense of the of the word....until they open their bomb bay doors.

Depending on speed and altitude, they can put steel on target in 5-10 seconds. Bunker busters are dropped from much higher altitude so impact after detection no more than 30-40 seconds Originally Posted by Munchmasterman

Maybe for people with 1960's era radar. Traditional method is by doppler radar of the air path, not the B-1 itself. UWB radar has totally made any stealth object visible.

I also predict that the usual suspects will be in the sandbox blasting the same old bull shit in 2012. Those same ones will continue to believe in something that is not real.

The Israelis are going to strike first with electronic warfare. They'll knock out their radars, electronics, etc. The Iranians will not be able to respond.
Benjamin Netanyahu has already said striking Iran is not a difficult operation. He said, they can do it and
it would be even easier for the United States to do it. Originally Posted by kingorpawn

I've said Netanyahu is acting crazy for a reason.

But no other military expert agrees with his statements.



I actually wish someone like the Iranians would develop a nuclear force to array against Israel because it would raise a lot of interesting issues.

In the early 1980s we used to ponder these when we were alarmed by the "Islamic bomb" the Pakistanis were working on.

For example, what if nuclear deterrence failed? What if someone could strike Israel without any warning and destroy the Israeli nuclear forces pre-emptively?

Does Israel have any invulnerable force such as missile-carrying submarines?

How vulnerable is the Israeli nuclear force to pre-emptive attack?

How would deterrence be maintained?

I've said Netanyahu is acting crazy for a reason.
But no other military expert agrees with his statements.
I actually wish someone like the Iranians would develop a nuclear force to array against Israel because it would raise a lot of interesting issues.
In the early 1980s we used to ponder these when we were alarmed by the "Islamic bomb" the Pakistanis were working on.
For example, what if nuclear deterrence failed? What if someone could strike Israel without any warning and destroy the Israeli nuclear forces pre-emptively?
Does Israel have any invulnerable force such as missile-carrying submarines?
How vulnerable is the Israeli nuclear force to pre-emptive attack?
How would deterrence be maintained? Originally Posted by theaustinescorts

Won't happen. Iran is threatening to destroy Israel and Israel cannot afford one nuclear strike. The clock is ticking. Iran won't get the bomb. Either Ben or Obama will strike first.

Maybe for people with 1960's era radar. Traditional method is by doppler radar of the air path, not the B-1 itself. UWB radar has totally made any stealth object visible. Originally Posted by winemaker

On September 6, 2007, Israel attacked Syria's al-Kibar nuclear facility. This attack surprised the world—Syria most of all.
Al-Kibar was protected by the same Russian-built Tor-M1 air defense system used to protect Iranian facilities.
This was certainly NOT 1960's era radar. It was at the time some of the most sophisticated air defense systems in the region. Israel's electronics warfare planes and other counter measures defeated the system allowing the strike to take place.

Since then Iran has purchased the advanced S-300 air defense system from Russia.

Are we to believe that the U.S. and Israel, which have BOTH shown the capability to defeat the air defense systems of Iraq, Syria and others, are somehow NOT capable of defeating the S-300 that the Iranians now have?
While there may be a few people here that think so, I actually hope the Iranians believe it too. It will make the success that much sweeter when it takes place.

Stealth technology is nice and gives us an edge but Israel and the United States both possess some of the world's best electronics warfare capability specifically designed to defeat these air defense systems. As Kingorpawn and others have pointed out, our technology, our weapons systems and our superior tactics still give us an edge over any organized army in the world. At least for now.

As you can see they can't wait until 2012....

Won't happen. Iran is threatening to destroy Israel and Israel cannot afford one nuclear strike. The clock is ticking. Iran won't get the bomb. Either Ben or Obama will strike first. Originally Posted by kingorpawn

Iran has absolutely no plans to destroy Israel.

The silly rhetorical statements by the Iranian PM are not serious.

Iran has no motive to launch an atomic war with a country like Israel, which has been armed to the teeth with nuclear weapons for decades now.

The only interesting issue here is whether a nuclear war might someday come about involving Israel because of INSTABILITY in a nuclear balance of power in the region.

If the nuclear arsenals of Israel and other states were vulnerable to attack and pre-emption this is how an unwanted, unintended nuclear war might come about.

Iran has absolutely no plans to destroy Israel. Originally Posted by theaustinescorts

Well, I'm sure Israel has no intention of finding out if that statement is true or not or
taking your word for it. They'll just have to make sure themselves Iran doesn't have that capability.

Well, I'm sure Israel has no intention of finding out if that statement is true or not or
taking your word for it. They'll just have to make sure themselves Iran doesn't have that capability. Originally Posted by kingorpawn

The costs of making sure that Iran doesn't have that capability far outweigh the risks of permitting them to proceed.

The Israelis, UK and US are using low cost covert methods to set back the Iranian program, but starting another regional war isn't in the cards.

The Israelis have very good intelligence on Iranian motives.

Israeli intelligence has been doing business with the Iranian government since 1980, and devotes a lot of attention to Iranian internal politics.

They are well aware that the Iranians have no plans to attack them and no interest in doing so.

The Israelis will conduct low cost operations to slow down the Iranian program just as they performed similar operations against the Iraqi nuclear program as well as the Iraqi "supergun" which could have boosted ballistic missiles at Israel in the 1980s. In that case the gun's manufacturer, Gerald Bull, was assassinated by Israeli agents ouside his house in Brussels.

Iraq and the Baath party [not Iran] have always been the preoccupation of Israel since the Camp David Accords took Egypt and Jordan out of the threat equation.

Unlike the Iranians[ who the Israelis have done business with for decades] the Iraqis were implacably opposed to the existence of Israel and could have turned on Israel at any moment were they not bogged down in other conflicts.

Maintaining these other conflicts was always a priorty of the Israelis. In particular they helped the Iranians in their war against Iraq in the 1980s, and then performed all manner of operations to goad Saddam Hussein into various miscalculations and wars, such as the invasion of Kuwait in 1990. They also promoted the split between Syria and Iraq as an Iraqi-Syrian alliance would have been fatal for Israel.

The Israelis finally succeeded in eliminating the Baath threat altogether when the US invaded Iraq in 2003.

With the elimination of the Iraqi threat however has come the new threat from the Arab Spring. New, populist governments in Egypt and elsewhere may pose dramatically new threats to Israel in the future.

Israel is constantly working against threats, and when one declines others emerge. However the Israeli nuclear arsenal is the ultimate card preventing any direct military attack. Should another regional power like Iran gain a nuclear arsenal not only will the Israeli nuclear monoploy be lost, but a nuclear war might come about through miscalculation or accident. It is the nuclear stability granted by Israel's monopoly which explains why the UK and the US are working against the Iranian program, not any particular attachment to Israel. The US has no alliance with Israel.

The costs of making sure that Iran doesn't have that capability far outweigh the risks of permitting them to proceed.

The US has no alliance with Israel. Originally Posted by theaustinescorts

The costs for Israel is that Israel won't exist if one nuke hits it.

And from reports I read today, Iran is preparing itself to throw down with
the US or Israel or both.

No alliance? I think all the Jews in the US will beg to differ. However, if you were only
referring to Obama then you are correct. Obama has turned his back on Israel.