At this point in time, I believe Obama will be re-elected. However, I understand that there is a lot of time between now and election day 2012. One week is a very long time in presidential politics. 5 1/2 months is almost an eternity.
Anyone who claims to know the eventual outcome of this years elections in Mid-May is not only fooling themselves, they are hopeful others are as foolish as they are!
- Guest040616
- 05-14-2012, 09:10 AM
- Whirlaway
- 05-14-2012, 09:27 AM
FastKum posted an article from 9 months ago..........and apparently FastKum's "Never Wrong" analyst (Alan Licthman) blew it his 2000 prediction !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
A transcript from CNN on March 8, 2000, shows he was wrong.
ANCHOR JAN HOPKINS: So from your surefire guide for predicting the next president, what’s it look like? Who’s going to be president?
ALLAN LICHTMAN: It’s looking very good for Al Gore. One of the keys to the White House is whether the party in power, of course the Democrats, can avoid a bruising, bloody internal fight for the nomination. Al Gore knocked off Bill Bradley, knocked him cold yesterday. He avoided the big nomination struggle. Combine that with other keys, Jan — a strong economy, peace, tranquillity at home and a united incumbent party — those are pretty good keys to hold for winning and retaining the White House for the Democrats this fall.
HOPKINS: So, you look…
LICHTMAN: George W. Bush has an uphill battle.
HOPKINS: You have — you look at about 12 or 13 things that are keys: The economy’s one of them, peace is another one. But the majority of these keys are in Gore’s favor, is that right?
LICHTMAN: That is correct. Right now, Gore holds eight of the 13 keys. He has lost five of them. If the situation holds exactly there, Gore wins. However, he’s right at the edge. He cannot afford to lose another key. If six keys goes down, then, historically, that means the party holding the White House is defeated. So the economy can’t tank, there can’t be a sudden foreign policy disaster or the Democrats will lose. So they need to maintain the status quo.
HOPKINS: What about Senator McCain? Should he be dropping out at this point in order to give the Republican candidate a bigger chance? LICHTMAN: Well, you know, ironically, the thing that Senator McCain might do to shake up this whole race and make it unpredictable is to run as an Independent candidate. I don’t think he’s going to do that, though, because that would mean flaming out all his relationships with Republicans. It would mean struggling to get on 50 state ballots. It would mean raising money. He’s not going to do it. I think his best bet now, indeed, is to get out and put his support behind George W. Bush. But that will not change the fundamentals of this race. It’s not the inside politics that counts, it’s the big issues. It’s governance that counts, not politics. It’s the big picture in the country.
HOPKINS: Thanks very much, Allan Lichtman.
ANCHOR JAN HOPKINS: So from your surefire guide for predicting the next president, what’s it look like? Who’s going to be president?
ALLAN LICHTMAN: It’s looking very good for Al Gore. One of the keys to the White House is whether the party in power, of course the Democrats, can avoid a bruising, bloody internal fight for the nomination. Al Gore knocked off Bill Bradley, knocked him cold yesterday. He avoided the big nomination struggle. Combine that with other keys, Jan — a strong economy, peace, tranquillity at home and a united incumbent party — those are pretty good keys to hold for winning and retaining the White House for the Democrats this fall.
HOPKINS: So, you look…
LICHTMAN: George W. Bush has an uphill battle.
HOPKINS: You have — you look at about 12 or 13 things that are keys: The economy’s one of them, peace is another one. But the majority of these keys are in Gore’s favor, is that right?
LICHTMAN: That is correct. Right now, Gore holds eight of the 13 keys. He has lost five of them. If the situation holds exactly there, Gore wins. However, he’s right at the edge. He cannot afford to lose another key. If six keys goes down, then, historically, that means the party holding the White House is defeated. So the economy can’t tank, there can’t be a sudden foreign policy disaster or the Democrats will lose. So they need to maintain the status quo.
HOPKINS: What about Senator McCain? Should he be dropping out at this point in order to give the Republican candidate a bigger chance? LICHTMAN: Well, you know, ironically, the thing that Senator McCain might do to shake up this whole race and make it unpredictable is to run as an Independent candidate. I don’t think he’s going to do that, though, because that would mean flaming out all his relationships with Republicans. It would mean struggling to get on 50 state ballots. It would mean raising money. He’s not going to do it. I think his best bet now, indeed, is to get out and put his support behind George W. Bush. But that will not change the fundamentals of this race. It’s not the inside politics that counts, it’s the big issues. It’s governance that counts, not politics. It’s the big picture in the country.
HOPKINS: Thanks very much, Allan Lichtman.
- joe bloe
- 05-14-2012, 09:39 AM
FastKum posted an article from 9 months ago..........and apparently FastKum's "Never Wrong" analyst (Alan Licthman) blew it his 2000 prediction !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
A transcript from CNN on March 8, 2000, shows he was wrong.
ANCHOR JAN HOPKINS: So from your surefire guide for predicting the next president, what’s it look like? Who’s going to be president?
ALLAN LICHTMAN: It’s looking very good for Al Gore. One of the keys to the White House is whether the party in power, of course the Democrats, can avoid a bruising, bloody internal fight for the nomination. Al Gore knocked off Bill Bradley, knocked him cold yesterday. He avoided the big nomination struggle. Combine that with other keys, Jan — a strong economy, peace, tranquillity at home and a united incumbent party — those are pretty good keys to hold for winning and retaining the White House for the Democrats this fall.
HOPKINS: So, you look…
LICHTMAN: George W. Bush has an uphill battle.
HOPKINS: You have — you look at about 12 or 13 things that are keys: The economy’s one of them, peace is another one. But the majority of these keys are in Gore’s favor, is that right?
LICHTMAN: That is correct. Right now, Gore holds eight of the 13 keys. He has lost five of them. If the situation holds exactly there, Gore wins. However, he’s right at the edge. He cannot afford to lose another key. If six keys goes down, then, historically, that means the party holding the White House is defeated. So the economy can’t tank, there can’t be a sudden foreign policy disaster or the Democrats will lose. So they need to maintain the status quo.
HOPKINS: What about Senator McCain? Should he be dropping out at this point in order to give the Republican candidate a bigger chance? LICHTMAN: Well, you know, ironically, the thing that Senator McCain might do to shake up this whole race and make it unpredictable is to run as an Independent candidate. I don’t think he’s going to do that, though, because that would mean flaming out all his relationships with Republicans. It would mean struggling to get on 50 state ballots. It would mean raising money. He’s not going to do it. I think his best bet now, indeed, is to get out and put his support behind George W. Bush. But that will not change the fundamentals of this race. It’s not the inside politics that counts, it’s the big issues. It’s governance that counts, not politics. It’s the big picture in the country.
HOPKINS: Thanks very much, Allan Lichtman.Originally Posted by Whirlaway
So does this mean FastKum isn't infallible? This is shocking stuff! Of course Gore did win the popular vote; so Lichtman came very close to having a perfect record. Even so, his predictions don't carry any more weight than any other political brainiac. If you analyse the prediction records of several dozen of these political analysts, your bound to find a few with "perfect records"; their success may be dumb luck as much as anything else. It's like a run of good luck in Vegas. Winning the last hand doesn't increase the odds of winning the next hand.
The outcome of most presidential elections can be accurately predicted by just going with the concensus of likely voter polls. It aint rocket science.
- Seedy
- 05-14-2012, 09:40 AM
Typical, for a jerkoff like fast ass, he is just a lying commie dog like our so-called president. He thinks he knows all, but in reality, he blows all....LMFAO
- acp5762
- 05-14-2012, 11:34 AM
Well I think the bottom line is this. For those out there who think Obama has been running this country then those same folks must also be convinced that Ronald McDonald cooks their Hamburgers too.
- CuteOldGuy
- 05-14-2012, 12:03 PM
ACP, who runs the country, then?
- joe bloe
- 05-14-2012, 12:36 PM
Well I think the bottom line is this. For those out there who think Obama has been running this country then those same folks must also be convinced that Ronald McDonald cooks their Hamburgers too. Originally Posted by acp5762Everyone knows the Hamburglar cooks the burgers. I think Ronald McDonald only does French fries.
- acp5762
- 05-14-2012, 07:01 PM
ACP, who runs the country, then? Originally Posted by CuteOldGuyBasically the Federal Reserve Bank System runs this country. I've posted a video that was done 25 years ago. You can find many more similar to it. The reason why I posted a video that was done so long ago is to illustrate what was talked about then and what is actually happening now.
http://youtu.be/6nNpZ4Sx1g0
- i'va biggen
- 05-14-2012, 07:13 PM
Hell even the dog on Leno missed the super bowl
- Fast Gunn
- 05-14-2012, 07:32 PM
In the final analysis, it is really the people who run the country.
Sometimes, they get it right and elect the best possible leader of that generation and prosperity follows. Read Kennedy Eisenhower, and Clinton, just to name a few.
Sometimes, they get it dead wrong and the country goes to hell. Read Bush, Nixon and Hoover.
. . . Eventually, we will get there as a country, but in the meantime we have to drag the dead weight of the dead beats (and you know who you are) who only know how to sling mud and malign those who are pulling the wagon of civilization!
Sometimes, they get it right and elect the best possible leader of that generation and prosperity follows. Read Kennedy Eisenhower, and Clinton, just to name a few.
Sometimes, they get it dead wrong and the country goes to hell. Read Bush, Nixon and Hoover.
. . . Eventually, we will get there as a country, but in the meantime we have to drag the dead weight of the dead beats (and you know who you are) who only know how to sling mud and malign those who are pulling the wagon of civilization!
- IIFFOFRDB
- 05-14-2012, 07:48 PM
In the final analysis, it is really the people who run the country.The only thing you are PULLING is your PUD.
Sometimes, they get it right and elect the best possible leader of that generation and prosperity follows. Read Kennedy Eisenhower, and Clinton, just to name a few.
Sometimes, they get it dead wrong and the country goes to hell. Read Bush, Nixon and Hoover.
. . . Eventually, we will get there as a country, but in the meantime we have to drag the dead weight of the dead beats (and you know who you are) who only know how to sling mud and malign those who are pulling the wagon of civilization!
- I B Hankering
- 05-14-2012, 08:20 PM
Now you are braying like an overburdened jackass pulling your cartload of dead weight: Odumbo's BS.
. . . Eventually, we will get there as a country, but in the meantime we have to drag the dead weight of the dead beats (and you know who you are) who only know how to sling mud and malign those who are pulling the wagon of civilization!
- joe bloe
- 05-14-2012, 08:57 PM
In the final analysis, it is really the people who run the country.You actually think Bill Clinton was the "best leader of that generation"? Seriously?
Sometimes, they get it right and elect the best possible leader of that generation and prosperity follows. Read Kennedy Eisenhower, and Clinton, just to name a few.
Sometimes, they get it dead wrong and the country goes to hell. Read Bush, Nixon and Hoover.
. . . Eventually, we will get there as a country, but in the meantime we have to drag the dead weight of the dead beats (and you know who you are) who only know how to sling mud and malign those who are pulling the wagon of civilization!
Bill Clinton got impeached, lied to a federal judge, commited perjury, suborned perjury, obstructed justice, lied to the American people, lost his law license, was fined $80,000, settled a sexual assault lawsuit with Paula Jones, probably raped Juanita Broaddick, disgraced himself by getting blowjobs (and rimjobs) from an intern in the oval office and a lot of other really low class stuff, some of which was probably criminal.
Bill Clinton is forgiven all of this shortcomings because the economy was really good while he was in office. Because the economy was strong, some people are willing to overlook everything else. If the economy had been weak, Clinton would not just have been impeached, he would have been removed from office. IMHO
- CuteOldGuy
- 05-14-2012, 09:32 PM
In the final analysis, it is really the people who run the country.You really believe the shit you post, don't you? That's what makes you so lovable.
Sometimes, they get it right and elect the best possible leader of that generation and prosperity follows. Read Kennedy Eisenhower, and Clinton, just to name a few.
Sometimes, they get it dead wrong and the country goes to hell. Read Bush, Nixon and Hoover.
. . . Eventually, we will get there as a country, but in the meantime we have to drag the dead weight of the dead beats (and you know who you are) who only know how to sling mud and malign those who are pulling the wagon of civilization!
- acp5762
- 05-14-2012, 09:57 PM
In the final analysis, it is really the people who run the country.Oh really, the people run the country. By the way how're we doing?
Sometimes, they get it right and elect the best possible leader of that generation and prosperity follows. Read Kennedy Eisenhower, and Clinton, just to name a few.
Sometimes, they get it dead wrong and the country goes to hell. Read Bush, Nixon and Hoover.
. . . Eventually, we will get there as a country, but in the meantime we have to drag the dead weight of the dead beats (and you know who you are) who only know how to sling mud and malign those who are pulling the wagon of civilization!