Something's causing excess deaths in the USA, and you can quantify that. Yeah, maybe you could argue the excess deaths are caused by people wearing masks or people afraid to go to the hospital, but that's pretty weak.I see the word "estimate" too many times. If you have actual numbers, let me know.
You can look at "excess deaths" this year compared to what you'd expect from historical data on this site:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm
This was last updated on August 5. Number of deaths through August 4 attributed to Covid was about 156,700, and through August 5, 158,000. I got those two numbers from Google.
Under "Options" on the linked web page, select "Number of Excess Deaths" and then "Update Dashboard." If you do this, you'll see they show between 156,354 and 212,979 excess deaths in the USA from 2/1/2020, presumably to August 5. (Again, page was updated on August 5.)
If you set dashboard to "excess deaths with and without Covid-19" you can see how they did this. I don't know whether this graph represents their low end or high end estimate or, more likely, something in between. Another comment about this graph, the number of deaths and excess deaths for recent weeks will go up, as "only 60% of death records are submitted to the NCHS within 10 days of the date of death." Originally Posted by Tiny
I see the word "estimate" too many times. If you have actual numbers, let me know. Originally Posted by gnadflyBased on what I think you've said about your work, there's no way you're not mathematically literate. You could download the historical death NUMBERS from my link, look at 2020 death rates, and compare to previous years, if you don't believe the analysis the CDC did. It's pretty simple, look at the number of deaths in prior years, compare to this year. I don't see how the CDC could have screwed it up.