International connections. On desire... he's made statements on multiple occaisions since 2020 about how it would be much easier if he left the country. Including on the stump.
The question is likelihood. And the bar for that differs in different legal proceedings. And since the law is complicated, folks armed with the legal knowledge they recieved from LA Law and Law and Order spout off without digging into or understanding the details.
Including, mischaracterizing a nitpick as a red herring. People keep avoiding this part.
Smith's office "later acknowledged, however, that it had 'errantly included flight from prosecution as a predicate' in its application" and "the district court did not rely on risk of flight in its ultimate analysis," the appeals ruling noted.
So that they can try to distract and handwave this part
"The district court found probable cause to search the Twitter account for evidence of criminal offenses," the decision noted.Which means they overpapered it a bit, but that the decision was sound even without the flight risk argument.
"Moreover, the district court found that there were 'reasonable grounds to believe' that disclosing the warrant to former President Trump 'would seriously jeopardize the ongoing investigation' by giving him 'an opportunity to destroy evidence, change patterns of behavior .. or notify confederates," the ruling says