You should have never backed down from the Trump tariff bashing. He got nothing out of Mexico that they already hadn't agreed to.
His China tariff has wiped out what little tax gains the poor received from his tax cuts. He basically replaced a progressive tax and is trying to make that up with a regressive one. When his ignorant ass base figures that out he is toast.
He wants you to believe the country is doing great , yet he 2wants the Feds to cut rates??????
Originally Posted by WTF
He's going to get the rate cuts because of the tariffs. Since he announced the 25% tariffs would take effect on China on May 5, the yield on 10 year treasury notes has fallen from 2.53% to 2.08%. Futures contracts which were pricing in about a 10% or 15% probability of two Fed rate cuts by year end are now pricing in about an 85% or 90% probability. You probably will see an increase in interest rates tomorrow though, when markets react to the latest news on Mexico.
Yes, a tariff is a regressive tax. Will people figure that out? Not necessarily. It's like the gasoline tax. The refiner or the service station pays it, but the consumer just sees the posted price of the the gasoline and blames the price entirely on the oil companies.
As to Mexico, it's hard to know what was going on. As you know, 25% tariffs would be absolutely crazy. Doing that would hugely screw up supply chains. Our auto industry couldn't compete with imports, so Trump would have almost certainly have to impose tariffs on imported cars from Europe, Japan and Korea too, and they along with Mexico would respond with tariffs on our products.
So it's very possible Trump's plan from the outset was to just use this as a negotiating point for immigration, or perhaps to come up with a "deal" that would appeal to his base. One of the pundits on cable news said last night that the Washington experts, whoever they are, were sure the Mexican tariffs wouldn't happen. Based on that and what's actually happened, as Bambino said, this is above my pay grade.
