Is the Economy really recovering?

LOL... the economy is pretty shitty but the call volume is still there.. maybe less multiple hour appointments..

Without getting into it too much, the dollar is dead. What you see now is literally the last remnant of a zombie currency and economy.

Best way to put it-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2N8gJ...2234&kw=dollar

Couple of points,
1) Austin and Texas in general doesn't generally "lag" (several studies on this) but rather have different economic base and on slightly different cycle. The rest of the economy will drag us Down (already has) but the "correlation doesn't equal causation" so be careful about previous recession correlations
2) Austin is suffering from overall stagnation and loss of tech jobs but state gov't jobs are compensating (not approving, just pointing out).
3) long term isn't rosy but not cliff falling either. Looks like 2-3 years of stagnation to continue dependent on gov't action (more is bad generally)
4) the "profitability" of many companies has come from declining inventories and cost cutting while the Dow prob over-reacted to future expectations earlier (to the downside) combined with expected gridlock in Washington.
Austin specifically has weathered the downturn well. But national real unemployment is close to 1/6 and QE is a real danger for rampant inflation. That will affect us in Austin pretty significantly. I read a study that laid out a convincing case for Real income levels dropping 20% in the next 10 years.
But luckily, we are going to "invest" billions we don't have (SOTU) and pay higher interest and have a 1.5 trillion deficit this year and a real balancesheet nationally of -66trillion. So it's all good.

From what I heard the spending spree is over.. Yeepee.

Now he is only going to INVEST! yeah thats not spending! I should INVEST in an hour with my fav provider. Yeah!

Now he is only going to INVEST! yeah thats not spending! I should INVEST in an hour with my fav provider. Yeah! Originally Posted by harkontume

Well said.

The stock market is artificially inflated from all the money the Fed Res has pumped into the economy, as soon as they drain the swamp it will go down again. If they cut 9500 state jobs it will crush ATX, add UTs cuts and AISD's (the three largest area employers) and it is not pretty. Throw in the rising oil/gas prices which will choke off the recovery... well you can paint the rest of the picture. I haven't even addressed the hyper-inflated ATX housing market...

It is important that the average citizen BELIEVE that we are pulling out of the recession. If you paid close attention when things were starting to go downhill a few years ago, that the really bad phase didn't kick in until all of the news outlets informed the public that we were in a recession.

Once the commoners got this info, everyone began to spend less, and put off remodeling projects almost overnight. It is critical that people start spending again, or we will never pull out of this. You and I can hold onto our cash, but "others" need to start spending, and banks need to start loaning cash again. Only then will we make it back on our collective feet.

I could be wrong

LF

I agree, a lot of it is perception but people around Austin seem to be spending money again. A friend of mine is in the Luxury car business and they are killing it.

Also, building permits are up almost 25% vs. a year ago. Most of them are remodeling projects. What's interesting about this is that I have been contacted by a number of people that can't find contractors to do small projects such as painting. I personally have been trying to help a friend of mine get a house remodeled in Section B, The contractors either don't show up for appointments, or are sky high because they are so busy.

If you are a contractor that does roofing, siding, heavy trash haul off or painting PM me and I'll give you the address of the house in Section B.

Not for me!!!

There has been a term floating around the Real Estate Community for a year now referring to "Shadow Inventory".

An Inventory of Foreclosed Homes not being offered for sale.

Well.... That inventory is no longer in the Shadows.

The number of foreclosed homes that are available today is 4 times the number that was available in August/September.

Almost overnight the properties being released for sale have quadrupled.

Not only that. Prices are plummeting on these prior foreclosures.

1100 sqrft 3BR/2BA Homes on the far East Side from Hutto to Del Valle from $45K up with a lot of inventory in the $60Ks

200SqrFt Homes in Leander, Kyle and Buda from $80K up with plentifil inventory in the $100k to $120K mark.

New Home Starts are decreasing while New Home Builders focus on Land Acquisition for a few years from now.

NEW Commercial Construction is definitely turning downwards.

Gas Prices have increased by 8% in 4 months and are expected to hit $4.00 a gallon this summer....

The upside? More girls turning to providing in one way or another.