The 3rd quarter gdp is set to come out 4 days before the election. The projection is for growth to be a hair below 35%, which is the most rapid expansion since the founding of the country. Even with the covid horseshit, Gallup poll of ‘better off - worse off’ comes in at 56% ‘better’, Reagan won 49 states when that number was 44%.
This will be an electoral landslide. After which democrats will riot, sue, and refuse to accept the outcome, the same as they did in ‘16 but more aggressively.
Originally Posted by Jacuzzme
The consensus quarter-on-quarter is for 29.3% GDP growth for the 3rd quarter. People don't look at that though. The year-on-year consensus estimate, which they do look at, is -3.6%. This is much better than I would have expected. If we'd done that in the 2nd quarter, we would have been world beaters, except for a few of the Asian countries like China, Taiwan and South Korea. And looking at consensus estimates for other large countries, the 3Q estimate for the USA is better than theirs, except, again, for China, Taiwan and South Korea.
I don't think this will save Trump though. We're getting pretty close to the end of the 3rd quarter. People know now how they're faring economically, they don't need a statistic to tell them. If the economy were going to bale Trump out, you'd think it would be reflected in the polls and the prediction markets by now, and it's not.