This conversation has lost any usefulness.
Originally Posted by VitaMan
Well, you do have a point!
But perhaps I can make a couple of useful points about markets and how to view them at this time.
Going way back to post #174:
BTW: Great info in the options thingy. But, uhm, how you feeling about the markets at the moment, leastwise the the last 2-20 days anyway? Clearly Brandon and the Fed have a handle on it. Right? Well... first time to be right about anything for Brandon would be right about now...
Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do
I assume this was meant for me, being that your post immediately followed this one:
https://eccie.net/showpost.php?p=106...&postcount=173
I'm reminded of a comment made by Buffett (and quoting Benjamin Graham from way back):
"In the short run the market is a
voting machine, but in the long run it's a
weighing machine."
Markets can climb the proverbial "wall of worry" for a longer period than people think, but right now I think the downside risk outweighs the upside potential.
In the short term, the Fed is likely to aggressively lean into inflation just as the effects of the fiscal surges wind down in late 2022 going into 2023. I won't be a bit surprised if they begin implementing a tightening cycle and then reverse course. (Remember, that happened in 2019 as concerns arose that the economy was decelerating.)
Here is a piece that just came out, arguing that we should have jettisoned any semblance of Humphrey-Hawkins long ago. (I agree!)
https://www.theinstitutionalriskanal...mphrey-hawkins
Among other things, the author makes the key point that one investor he knows muses that policy "normalization" might whack at least 25% off current equity values, but is OK with that as he deems it necessary in order to return to monetary system health and sustainability.
.