1 out of 100 ends in death, eh? Where did you get that number?
Originally Posted by FatCity
I pulled it out of the air, for the purpose of creating my Russian Roulette Covid Parable. Please note that I created the parable for people over 50. I'm confident the infection fatality ratio for the population as a whole over 50 is greater than 1%, or greater than one out of 100.
The infection fatality ratio for the country as a whole appears to be around 0.8%. It's hard to estimate after the first quarter of 2021, because a lot of people started getting vaccinated. I could be wrong, but don't believe antibody tests used in large seroprevalence studies distinguish between antibodies generated by the vaccines and antibodies generated by the disease. So after a lot of people were vaccinated, I believe it was hard to estimate the denominator in the ratio, which is the total number of people infected by COVID.
Anyway, this is not brain surgery. You take the total number of people believed to have died from COVID as of a particular date. Then you divide by the total number of people estimated to have been infected as of the same date, based on seroprevalence studies throughout the USA. As of February 28, 2021, this was about 0.8%:
https://reason.com/2021/04/02/new-cd...ously-thought/
I believe the CDC in its average planning scenario earlier this year was using 0.75%.
The number from your table for the USA represents an infection fatality ratio of 100% - 99.983% = .017%. This number is ridiculous. Apply it to the entire population of the United States, infected and uninfected, vaccinated and unvaccinated, and you'd come up with 56,000 deaths from COVID:
0.00017 x 332 million = 56,000 deaths.
Over 700,000 have died.
you must've missed the part about state reporting. You can make fake cards all day, but all roads lead to verified Covid Passports by way of state immunization reporting. As we speak, the Feds are putting together a National Immunization database because that did not exist before COVID. Every state reports differently.
You will need that record official
Originally Posted by FatCity
I'm not sure you're right. I'm pretty sure the CDC doesn't keep a record of who's vaccinated. There's no nationwide database, unfortunately in my view, because it makes it harder to travel in places like Europe.
I'd suspect McDingDong could get away with using a forged card, although if I were in his shoes I'd just get the vaccine. I'd question whether states would report a persons vaccine status to an employer. If that's an issue and McDingDong wants to be safe, he could say he was vaccinated in Florida or Texas.
https://www.goodrx.com/blog/how-to-p...-for-covid-19/