The Trumpster's deportations

Nearly 1 million illegal immigrants have ‘self-deported’ under Trump, which has led to higher wages

By Andrew Arthur
Published June 15, 2025, 12:55 p.m. ET


While ICE arrests and deportations have grabbed headlines, President Trump is also running a separate but complementary “mass deportation” program — one that encourages aliens here unlawfully to go home voluntarily.

And if reports are correct, that plan is more successful than anyone could have imagined.

Based on government data, my organization, the Center for Immigration Studies, has conservatively estimated there are about 15.4 million illegal aliens in the United States, a 50% increase over the four tumultuous years of the Biden administration.

That’s no surprise, given how Biden and his Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas ignored congressional detention mandates and ushered millions of illegal migrants into the United States.

Trump rode a wave of concerns about the costs those migrants are imposing on schools, hospitals, housing, and essential government services in cities and towns across the United States to a second term.

Now that he’s back in the Oval Office, it’s up to him, “border czar” Tom Homan, and DHS Secretary Kristi Noem to drive the unauthorized population down and restore credibility to our immigration system.

They’ve implemented a two-track plan to tackle this onerous task.

One of those tracks relies on arrests and deportations of aliens unlawfully here, which at the outset has focused mainly on criminals (the “worst first” strategy).

The other track is more subtle but also cheaper for taxpayers and arguably much more effective — encouraging illegal migrants here to self-deport.

It began with an Inauguration Day Trump directive requiring DHS to ensure all aliens present in the United States — legal and otherwise — have registered with the federal government, and to prosecute those who don’t comply.

By late February, Noem had implemented that registration program.

DHS next launched a multimillion-dollar ad campaign warning migrants not to enter illegally or, alternatively, to leave voluntarily now and possibly “have an opportunity to return and enjoy our freedom and live the American Dream.”

Noem also rebranded the notorious CBP One app — which the Biden administration used to funnel hundreds of thousands of illegal migrants into our country — as “CBP Home,” which aliens can use to “notify the U.S. Government of their intent to depart.”

That rebranding coincided with an offer of financial incentives for aliens who leave voluntarily, a stipend of $1,000. That’s in lieu of costly physical deportation, which can cost taxpayers $17,100 per person on average.

How effective has self-deportation been?

One way to track the program is by checking employment numbers. One financial whiz cited by the Wall Street Journal calculated a decline in the immigrant population of 773,000 in the first four months of Trump II.

The Washington Post claims “a million foreign-born workers have exited the workforce since March.” The Post frames this as “a sign of the weakening labor supply.” Yet the paper also notes, “Average hourly wages accelerated, rising by 0.4 percent over the month, to $36.24 in May, as earnings continue to beat inflation in a boost to workers’ spending power.”

In other words, with fewer illegal immigrants, businesses have had to raise wages to attract workers.

But aliens will only leave if they believe Trump and Homan are serious about arrests, and employers know the feds are targeting shady businesses.

This voluntary exodus shouldn’t be surprising. When President Dwight Eisenhower launched his deportation roundup in 1954, nearly 10 aliens left voluntarily for each one arrested. A post-9/11 registration program also drove self-deportations.

DHS can’t arrest and deport 15.4 million illegal aliens, but if it simply enforces the law, many aliens will get the message and leave on their own — as hundreds of thousands apparently already have.

Andrew Arthur is the fellow in law and policy at the Center for Immigration Studies.

https://nypost.com/2025/06/15/opinio...-higher-wages/

Already covered why, Lusty. Choosing to leave isn't a deportation. You can pretend they are, but alas, they don't count and won't be counted

Vox took the time to address the very premise pondered by this thread

https://www.vox.com/politics/416901/...rder-raids-ice


The Independent recognizes some of the difference as well while also highlighting how Trump's ICE will be a billion over budget this year.

https://www.the-independent.com/news...-b2771753.html

Already covered why, Lusty. Choosing to leave isn't a deportation. You can pretend they are, but alas, they don't count and won't be counted Originally Posted by HDGristle

No, it wasn't "already covered". It was deliberately IGNORED by you. Why? Because it undermines the entire false narrative of this thread - that all trump's efforts to reverse the Biden immigration fiasco are doomed to fail.

I don't give a rat's ass if a deportation is counted as an official (involuntary) ICE eviction or a (voluntary) CBP One app self-deportation. The point is this - trump has topped 1 million in total deportations in 4 months! If it continues at this rate, we'll see up to 3 million illegals gone this year alone! That number wildly exceeds my expectations and yours, if you are honest with yourself. I have to applaud Kristi Noem and her Dept. of Homeland Security for scoring such a resounding success.

And if you had any real vision and weren't so obsessed with denying trump a smidgen of credit even when he knocks one out of the ballpark, you might be capable of perceiving the outlines of a solution to the immigration crisis down the road. What happens when those self-deportees start applying to come back to the US LEGALLY? DHS will have an unprecedented opportunity to screen and process their applications fully and competently. And that's something Biden, Harris and Mayorkas could never do, not in your wildest imagination.

Biden, Harris, and Mayorkas - thank God those 3 Stooges are gone!

Already covered why, Lusty. Choosing to leave isn't a deportation. You can pretend they are, but alas, they don't count and won't be counted Originally Posted by HDGristle

Lmao. I’m fine with all the millions of illegals self-deporting and none of it counting in “the score”.

Lmao. I’m fine with all the millions of illegals self-deporting and none of it counting in “the score”. Originally Posted by Green_Mountain

it does count. in the "America First" score

No, it wasn't "already covered". It was deliberately IGNORED by you. Why? Because it undermines the entire false narrative of this thread - that all trump's efforts to reverse the Biden immigration fiasco are doomed to fail.

I don't give a rat's ass if a deportation is counted as an official (involuntary) ICE eviction or a (voluntary) CBP One app self-deportation. The point is this - trump has topped 1 million in total deportations in 4 months! If it continues at this rate, we'll see up to 3 million illegals gone this year alone! That number wildly exceeds my expectations and yours, if you are honest with yourself. I have to applaud Kristi Noem and her Dept. of Homeland Security for scoring such a resounding success.

And if you had any real vision and weren't so obsessed with denying trump a smidgen of credit even when he knocks one out of the ballpark, you might be capable of perceiving the outlines of a solution to the immigration crisis down the road. What happens when those self-deportees start applying to come back to the US LEGALLY? DHS will have an unprecedented opportunity to screen and process their applications fully and competently. And that's something Biden, Harris and Mayorkas could never do, not in your wildest imagination.

Biden, Harris, and Mayorkas - thank God those 3 Stooges are gone! Originally Posted by lustylad

this is what should happen to Mayorkis that bald headed prick every time he lied under oath that the border was secure







BAHHAHAAAAAAAA

No, it wasn't "already covered". Originally Posted by lustylad

It was.

And it's because it's a dodgy number. The first "self-deportation" flights only started going out mid-May.

The only true self-deportations that count in the stats are those who already have a valid deportation order and can be tallied as a removal. Which is what actually happens today.

I get that you want to give credit where it's not due, but sadly the DHS and Homan haven't included it in their stats, either. So why would you?

I am extremely aware of the potential benefits of self-deportation to avoid penalties and eliminate the original sin of illegal presence... but that's not what this thread is about.

Besides, if you want to do the germane comparison you would also have to go back and give Obama and Biden credit for self-deportations, too.


Fair and balanced, after all

When the border czar says he's deported a lil over 200k you don't add a 5x multiplier on top of that and start handing out participation trophies for things he didn't do. Unless you're calling Homan a liar

https://t.me/realKarliBonne/300464

Winning

Deporting 10-20 million illegal immigrants would increase wages for the bottom quartile of workers, strengthen and optimize public services, and free up millions of homes/apartments.

Would be a boom for young people and lower income folks.

Ok, why is Trump having such a hard time getting to 500k? That would be a single year record, btw

It was.

No, it wasn't. But why argue? Let's just cover it AGAIN.


And it's because it's a dodgy number. The first "self-deportation" flights only started going out mid-May.

I'll agree, if by "dodgy" you mean soft. It's not a hard count. Did you do any research on where the "nearly 1 million self-deportations" estimate came from?

Go back and re-read the NY Post story in post #331 above. The author, who is a Resident Fellow in Law & Policy at the Center for Immigration Studies, says "One financial whiz cited by the Wall Street Journal calculated a decline in the immigrant population of 773,000 in the first four months of Trump II."

The "whiz" is economist Don Luskin of Trend Macro. His 773,000 number is an estimate (based on BLS labor data) of how many immigrants quit working in the first 4 months. Admittedly, that's not the same as how many may have self-deported. But it should be viewed as an accurate precursor. Illegals are unlikely to stay in the country if they're too scared of ICE raids to show up at work.


The only true self-deportations that count in the stats are those who already have a valid deportation order and can be tallied as a removal.

Nonsense. I'll be happy to count them all, whether they leave voluntarily or involuntarily. Either way, it reduces the hoards that were allowed in by Biden, Harris and Mayorkas.


I get that you want to give credit where it's not due, but sadly the DHS and Homan haven't included it in their stats, either. So why would you?

I get that you don't want to give credit where it's due, but I'm certain Homan and Noem are delighted to see more illegals self-deport. It only makes their jobs easier by reducing the numbers they have to deport forcibly! And as more & more immigrants avail themselves of the new CBP Home app which was brilliantly refashioned and rolled out by Kristi Noem's DHS, the self-deportation numbers will no longer be soft ones derived from BLS labor data. Instead, we'll have a solid database of who is coming and going. Surely you don't want to be a naysayer and deny Kristi Noem credit for this, do you?


Besides, if you want to do the germane comparison you would also have to go back and give Obama and Biden credit for self-deportations, too.

Be my guest. By all means, dig up the numbers for Obama and Biden, if you can. Problem is - the size of the immigrant labor force grew under both of them, unlike what we're seeing now under trump, who is creating much stronger incentives for illegal immigrants to self-deport than either of his predecessors did.


When the border czar says he's deported a lil over 200k you don't add a 5x multiplier on top of that... Originally Posted by HDGristle

You're right, Gristle.

According to the NY Post article, we should add a multiplier of 10x rather than 5x. Or did you miss this part:

"When President Dwight Eisenhower launched his deportation roundup in 1954, nearly 10 aliens left voluntarily for each one arrested."


https://nypost.com/2025/06/15/opinio...-higher-wages/

You're right, Gristle.

According to the NY Post article, we should add a multiplier of 10x rather than 5x. Or did you miss this part:

"When President Dwight Eisenhower launched his deportation roundup in 1954, nearly 10 aliens left voluntarily for each one arrested."[/SIZE]


https://nypost.com/2025/06/15/opinio...-higher-wages/ Originally Posted by lustylad

That might be because it was so much easier to cross the border in 1954.

Knowing that you can leave and then easily come back later is a good incentive to leave voluntarily. In this day and age it might be easier to hide out rather than risk the cost and danger of leaving and having to come back again.

You missed the good part, txdot. If you self-deport, Kristi pays your plane ticket and you will be given a chance to return LEGALLY. No such luck if ICE arrests & deports you. Incentives matter!

Ok, why is Trump having such a hard time getting to 500k? That would be a single year record, btw Originally Posted by HDGristle

...the border czar says he's deported a lil over 200k. Originally Posted by HDGristle

Do the math, Gristle.

200k for 5 months spells 480k for the year. On pace for a single-year record?

I am aware, Lusty.

How can he set the single year record and still fall on his face in abysmal failure?

Setting his target on 1,000,000 deportations in a year (the Trump Admin's target) and getting less than half of it.

You're finally starting to scratch the surface of why I keep questioning the pace and looking at what Obama did, without all of this extra hoopla and novel niche approaches.

There's 3 things he can't count on. 2 things he should try. Even then, he still needs more immigration judges, more flights, and expanded and improved agreements with foreign nations to get them to accept those flights.

He's focused his $ on arrests and detentions instead of on greasing the wheels of the machine. This creates bottlenecks, some of which are intentional since Steven Miller is the architect. I'm going to assume you don't see them or the counterintuitive logic behind why they're in place.

It's why I keep saying that Homan is being left without the resources and is holding the bag.