How many people will die in the USA from the new coronavirus by December 31, 2021??

April 12, 2020 Update
Predicted Deaths from Covid-19 in the United States of America

University of Washington IHME Model: 68,841 (1)

The Waco Kid Italian Extrapolation: greater than 110,511 (2)

South Korean Extrapolation: greater than 1,420 (3)

(1) Assumes four types of social distancing occur throughout the United States. Deaths projected to August 4, 2020

(2) Covid-19 deaths to date in Italy increased by the ratio of the population of the USA (327.2 million) to Italy (60.5 million), or 5.4X

(3) Covid-19 deaths to date in South Korea increased by the ratio of the population of the USA (327.2 million) to South Korea (51.5 million), or 6.4X


Death Game Estimates, to 12/31/2021:

Jacuzzme: 41,806
Friendly Fred: 50,000
Dilbert Firestorm: 80,000
Dr. Anthony Fauci: 150,000 (4)
Dr. Deborah Birx: 172,000 (4)
Tiny: 260,000
eccieuser9500: 323,001
Dr. James Lawler: 480,000
adav8s28: 1,569,600

(4) average of high and low estimates

Dilbert is also predicting 90 million infected.

Still looking good. The IHME model is up a bit from the last two updates, which both came in around 60,000 to 62,000 deaths. Right now Dilbert and Friendly Fred are looking good, and Jacuzzme has a good chance as well. Originally Posted by Tiny

Over 1.5 million due to Covid? Now that's fucking depressing.











The good Dr. Might win.

He's not a member here is he?

we're in the 320,000 range are we not? those are in e9500's range.


adav8s28 is a sick puppy. lol

Over 1.5 million due to Covid? Now that's fucking depressing. Originally Posted by eccieuser9500

If we end the year with 946,301 deaths or more, adav8s28 would be the winner. I don't think we're going to get there. But I'm not sure you can count him out just yet. He was the winner of the Presidential electoral vote count game, although there's an extreme outside chance he'll lose if something wild happens, like a giant meteor hits the earth or Congress or the military overturns the election.

It's depressing eccieuser. You're the front runner, but now it's looking like adavs28 has a chance. If half of the people in this country are too stupid or brainwashed to get the vaccine, we could have a lot farther to go. Originally Posted by Tiny

One guy on the job whose opinions I respect, lost a little of my respect. A gentleman of color living in fear of what might happen if he takes the vaccine.

Nothing of the Tuskegee history did he bring up. But only the sensational stories of the worst side effects.

Mainly unknown scientific, medically horrific side effects. Nothing like micro chip tracking device government conspiracy stuff. So he still retains admiration.

I was just disappointed he did not understand the overall efficacy versus the percentage of worst case scenarios. I told him I would immediately take it if given the chance. He went on to say "what if this, what if that . . ."

Not all that brainwashed. Just scared.

If we end the year with 946,301 deaths or more, adav8s28 would be the winner. I don't think we're going to get there. But I'm not sure you can count him out just yet. He was the winner of the Presidential electoral vote count game, although there's an extreme outside chance he'll lose if something wild happens, like a giant meteor hits the earth or Congress or the military overturns the election. Originally Posted by Tiny

Biden drowns in his bowl of chicken soup in his basement and Harris gets COVID from giving him head and dies.


BAHHAAAAA

If we end the year with 946,301 deaths or more, adav8s28 would be the winner. I don't think we're going to get there. But I'm not sure you can count him out just yet. He was the winner of the Presidential electoral vote count game, although there's an extreme outside chance he'll lose if something wild happens, like a giant meteor hits the earth or Congress or the military overturns the election. Originally Posted by Tiny

I'll be gracious and concede if we in the U.S. hit 500,000 by next New Year's Eve. At that fuckin' point, his guess was as good, if not better, than mine. I'm still trying to wrap my head around this contest going on for another three hundred and sixty-four days. Is this a leap year?











I don't want that win.

Biden drowns in his bowl of chicken soup in his basement and Harris gets COVID from giving him head and dies.


BAHHAAAAA Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

Next MAN up! Biiiiiitch.

I'll be gracious and concede if we in the U.S. hit 500,000 by next New Year's Eve. At that fuckin' point, his guess was as good, if not better, than mine. I'm still trying to wrap my head around this contest going on for another three hundred and sixty-four days. Is this a leap year?

I don't want that win. Originally Posted by eccieuser9500

2020 was leap year

we're in the 320,000 range are we not? those are in e9500's range.


adav8s28 is a sick puppy. lol Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

Yeah! But we still have a long fuckin' way to go.

2020 was leap year Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

Oh yeah. I forgot. I have a memory of that day. Work thing.

I'll be gracious and concede if we in the U.S. hit 500,000 by next New Year's Eve. At that fuckin' point, his guess was as good, if not better, than mine. I'm still trying to wrap my head around this contest going on for another three hundred and sixty-four days. Is this a leap year? Originally Posted by eccieuser9500

Say the Packers are up 56 to 0 at the end of the 3rd quarter. Is Vince Lombardi going to concede the game if the final score is 56 to 10? Hell no. If the total is 946,300 or less you're the winner.

I'm pleased with the December 31, 2021 end date. The idea was to predict how many people would ultimately die from Covid-19, but you've got to pick a date or this would go on forever. Hopefully almost all the dying will be behind us by year end.

Next MAN up! Biiiiiitch.

Originally Posted by eccieuser9500

that disqualifies Nancy, how about you?

that disqualifies Nancy, how about you? Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

Shit, I would make a better president. Bernie as Vice.

Shit, I would make a better Socialist. Bernie is Vice.

Originally Posted by eccieuser9500

FTFY

Say the Packers are up 56 to 0 at the end of the 3rd quarter. Is Vince Lombardi going to concede the game if the final score is 56 to 10? Hell no. If the total is 946,300 or less you're the winner.

I'm pleased with the December 31, 2021 end date. The idea was to predict how many people would ultimately die from Covid-19, but you've got to pick a date or this would go on forever. Hopefully almost all the dying will be behind us by year end. Originally Posted by Tiny

I guess the middle number between my guess and adav8s28 is 946,300? Is that considered the median number? Anyway.


If Vinny Lomba is winning by that much to start the 4th, he should concede the game. He's going to win. Put in your backups to see what they "got".

If he's losing by that much, he wouldn't. I think that might have been your point. Keep fighting for the win. By half a million deaths, I don't even want to win this contest. He can have it.


Hey, my good sir. Did we- actually you, get a number on the Wisdom of the Crowd? I haven't gone back in the thread to find if there was one.