The 2020 Presidential Election

The Bond Market flashed a recession warning after the Dow plummeted 800 points. It's not unreasonable to be afraid that a recession can still happen. Especially since the government hasn't done anything to change the rules or regulate the banks since the last recession, like Bernie, Warren, and Yang want to do.

The economy is certainly not in a recession right now. Not close. Had Trump moved forward with tariffs on Mexico and his proposed tariffs on China, we would be moving more in that direction though.

The one positive accomplishment for Trump in his 33 months in office is the economy. Those in the upper income levels have done much better than those in the middle of the middle class and below but all have it somewhat better. Yes, wages are up but so is the CPI and tariffs have increased the costs of many products we buy each day. Real income is stagnant.

If the economy falters between now and November 2020, Trump can blame the Federal Reserve all he wants. He took full credit when the economy was booming but when it falters he passes the blame onto others.

Oh darn, we're not in recession after all. Sorry Bill Mahr. Better luck next time.

Consumer spending beats expectations - Shoppers reject phony media recession fears...

by Sundance

Average wage growth remains +3.5% year-over-year. The growth of overall income for American workers exceeds +5.4 percent year-over-year. Unemployment is a low 3.6% and U.S. consumer inflation remains low at 1.4 percent. Meaning: the middle-class has more disposable income to save or SPEND; and that’s what is happening….

• Reminder #1: Consumer spending is two-thirds of the U.S. economy.
• Reminder #2: We consume more than 80 percent of our own production (products created in USA). We do not rely on exports.
• Reminder #3: Because of #1 and #2, the “Main Street” U.S. economy is self sustaining -much stronger- and more protected from the negative impacts on the global economy.
• Reminder #4: Who/What is at risk from global contraction? The Wall Street economy (compromised primarily of multinationals). What is not at risk, the Main St economy.
• Reminder #5: Because of #3 and #4, Wall Street can drop while Main Street thrives.

My summary: This is also why the longer China delays talking tariffs the more they lose. Must be that magic wand Trump has


Plus Germany and China are sinking further behind. No doubt much of the globe's economies are for chite. But not ours and it's the largest - I think. So uhmm, what one might say to Germany, the EU and China is #SUCKIT and pass the popcorn

You’re starting to sound like a broken record. You’re parroting yourself in the same thread, lol. One track, agenda driven mind

Oh darn, we're not in recession after all. Sorry Bill Mahr. Better luck next time.

Consumer spending beats expectations - Shoppers reject phony media recession fears...

by Sundance

Average wage growth remains +3.5% year-over-year. The growth of overall income for American workers exceeds +5.4 percent year-over-year. Unemployment is a low 3.6% and U.S. consumer inflation remains low at 1.4 percent. Meaning: the middle-class has more disposable income to save or SPEND; and that’s what is happening….

• Reminder #1: Consumer spending is two-thirds of the U.S. economy.
• Reminder #2: We consume more than 80 percent of our own production (products created in USA). We do not rely on exports.
• Reminder #3: Because of #1 and #2, the “Main Street” U.S. economy is self sustaining -much stronger- and more protected from the negative impacts on the global economy.
• Reminder #4: Who/What is at risk from global contraction? The Wall Street economy (compromised primarily of multinationals). What is not at risk, the Main St economy.
• Reminder #5: Because of #3 and #4, Wall Street can drop while Main Street thrives.

My summary: This is also why the longer China delays talking tariffs the more they lose. Must be that magic wand Trump has


Plus Germany and China are sinking further behind. No doubt much of the globe's economies are for chite. But not ours and it's the largest - I think. So uhmm, what one might say to Germany, the EU and China is #SUCKIT and pass the popcorn Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

Consumer spending is the only factor keeping the U.S. GDP up. Trump promised a 3.0% or higher GDP. Hit 2.9% in 2018, a rate hit under Obama. Expected to hit 2.3% in 2019 and 2.0% in 2020. Good but not close to what Trump anticipated. China's GDP is expected to be 6.2% and 5.8% in 2020.

We don't rely on exports? Tell that to the farmers in this country who would be losing their asses if not for subsidies in the sum of about $16 billion. Which you and I are helping to pay for via our taxes. We exported about $2.5 trillion and imported about $3.1 trillion in 2018.

Consumer spending is the only factor keeping the U.S. GDP up. Trump promised a 3.0% or higher GDP. Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

We already plowed most of this dirt in https://eccie.net/showpost.php?p=106...&postcount=336

and https://eccie.net/showpost.php?p=106...&postcount=345 , in addition to National debt.



Short recap:

Source Statista (dot) com


TRUMP GDP numbers:

3.0% Q2 '17, 4.2% Q2 '18, 3.4% Q3 '18, 3.1% Q1 '19


So looking at the little O's 2nd term performance we notice that out of the chute:
Q2'12-1.7%, Q3'12-0.5%, Q4'12-0.5%, Q1'13-3.6%, Q2'13-0.5%,...Q1'14-(-1%)

I thought it would easily be near 3%, but 4% starts to get a bit heady and frankly, too much shenanigans to maintain there. In no way would I expect 6%, mainly for fear of the repercussions that would ensue, namely gravity - what goes up comes down. For me, slow and relatively steady is the way to go.

Wild swings from -0.1% (Q1'11&Q1'14) to 5.1%( Q2'14) cause to much chop in the waters as we saw during the Little O's 2nd term.



We can talk about farmers another time. But do realize I'm from farm country...

Much of the economy is essentially on a bubble. My economics, Personal Financial Planning and buddies from college are gearing up predicting a recession in 6 to 18 months.

Inverted yield curve certainly suggests that. Even though consumer spending is up, that's not usually a leading indicator.

Comments coming from Che Bernie are suspect and reporting from Politifact and Washington Post even more so. Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

Is Politifact suspect? In a word, no:

https://www.poynter.org/fact-checkin...lysis-says-no/

Very slight leftward tilt, but not enough to move them out of the "least-biased" category in independent analysis:

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/politifact/

Very close to half of their pants-on-fire ratings and Pinocchio's are aimed towards the left. This in an age where we have an administration that routinely tells whoppers.

https://www.dailydot.com/layer8/best...king-websites/

They rely on reader support, not funding from partisons, PACS, and hacks:

https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...sed-heres-why/

Washington Post fact-check also fairly unbiased and balanced:

https://www.npr.org/2012/01/10/14497...ing-under-fire

If the right wanted to be credible, they would do much better to put pressure on their representatives to be more truthful. Instead they insist on being right all the time, even if they have to make shit up in the process.

There are independent media bias monitors out there that rate news sources, so there's no excuse in this day an age to let yourself be led astray by partisans of either stripe.

https://www.journalism.org/2014/10/2...larization-08/

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ho...NIaUTFM8ehF4Gk

Inverted yield curve certainly suggests that. Even though consumer spending is up, that's not usually a leading indicator. Originally Posted by Dev Null

As I recall basic supply/demand, because there is an excess of buyers scooping up long term US debt, the yield would go down. You think they gonna invest in China, Germany or the EU right now or in the foreseeable future?

As I recall basic supply/demand, because there is an excess of buyers scooping up long term US debt, the yield would go down. You think they gonna invest in China, Germany or the EU right now or in the foreseeable future? Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

We already plowed most of this dirt in https://eccie.net/showpost.php?p=106...&postcount=336

and https://eccie.net/showpost.php?p=106...&postcount=345 , in addition to National debt.



Short recap:

Source Statista (dot) com


TRUMP GDP numbers:

3.0% Q2 '17, 4.2% Q2 '18, 3.4% Q3 '18, 3.1% Q1 '19


So looking at the little O's 2nd term performance we notice that out of the chute:
Q2'12-1.7%, Q3'12-0.5%, Q4'12-0.5%, Q1'13-3.6%, Q2'13-0.5%,...Q1'14-(-1%)

I thought it would easily be near 3%, but 4% starts to get a bit heady and frankly, too much shenanigans to maintain there. In no way would I expect 6%, mainly for fear of the repercussions that would ensue, namely gravity - what goes up comes down. For me, slow and relatively steady is the way to go.

Wild swings from -0.1% (Q1'11&Q1'14) to 5.1%( Q2'14) cause to much chop in the waters as we saw during the Little O's 2nd term.

We can talk about farmers another time. But do realize I'm from farm country... Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

It's totally unfair to compare the economy under Obama and the economy under Trump. Obama took over as we were entering the worst recession since the Great Depression and all economic indicators improved drastically under Obama. Trump took over a solid economy and has made it better.

Much of the economy is essentially on a bubble. My economics, Personal Financial Planning and buddies from college are gearing up predicting a recession in 6 to 18 months. Originally Posted by Agent220

Hmm... just in time for election season. Seems fishy. But then we've gone from RUSSIA to RACIST to RECESSION. Why not just actually report actual news, as opposed to future talking points for the DNC? That could be a thing...

It's totally unfair to compare the economy under Obama and the economy under Trump. Obama took over as we were entering the worst recession since the Great Depression and all economic indicators improved drastically under Obama. Trump took over a solid economy and has made it better. Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

To be fair, Trump does have a magic wand and all - according to some ill-informed sources. So yes, maybe that is cheating. But that's why I choose little O's second term numbers. You know, after he lowered ocean levels and fundamentally changed every this that and the other thing and when he had more flexibility and what not.


Interesting comparison on your first point, especially compared to Billy-boy Clintoon following Reagan and Bush Sr. I do remember seeing charts of the economy growth before Clinton that showed the longest running and steadiest growth. As Jennifer Flowers mentioned; At least Clinton didn't screw it up - initially.

That would go against their "I'm a victim" narrative.

Hmm... just in time for election season. Seems fishy. But then we've gone from RUSSIA to RACIST to RECESSION. Why not just actually report actual news, as opposed to future talking points for the DNC? That could be a thing... Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do