Trump/Biden tied In Minnesota!!!!!!

When did I ever say any polls showing Trump ahead are "incorrect"? I'll make it easy for you. NEVER.

Rasmussen has Trump +4 in its latest approval ratings. Incorrect? I don't know for certain anymore than I know that a Poitico poll showing Trump -20% is incorrect. What I have consistently said is to not take any single poll at a single point in time to be correct or incorrect. Look at the average of ALL polls taken on a particular subject and you will come closer to the actual feelings of voters.

I also think it's important to look at how accurate polling companies have been in the past before citing a specific poll. Muhlenburg College and ABC News and Marist College are rated A+ based on their past accuracy in predicting results. Trafalgar Group is rated C-.

Yes, polls can be swayed to get the answers desired. I challenge you to find a poll that has done so. They certainly do exist but are rare. The polls conducted by the companies graded the highest are totally unbiased. It does them no good when their results are wrong. Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

if these pollsters strive for accuracy then why were they almost all of them so wrong in 2016?

if these pollsters strive for accuracy then why were they almost all of them so wrong in 2016? Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

LOL. Exactly one state, Wisconsin, was called incorrectly by the polls.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...llege_map.html

The summary of polls right before the election, as shown in the link from RealClearPolitics, had 15 states in the Toss Up column. The political "experts" who predicted the electoral vote outcome made assumptions that were incorrect. They were wrong, the polls were not.

LOL. Exactly one state, Wisconsin, was called incorrectly by the polls.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...llege_map.html

The summary of polls right before the election, as shown in the link from RealClearPolitics, had 15 states in the Toss Up column. The political "experts" who predicted the electoral vote outcome made assumptions that were incorrect. They were wrong, the polls were not. Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Trump got a bounce after the Democrats convention!

Trump got a bounce after the Democrats convention! Originally Posted by bambino

What is your source?

According to the following, Biden enjoyed a 5% increase in favorability ratings. Harris also enjoyed a nice jump.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...ll/ar-BB18h8wl

This is hardly unusual after the national convention. Trump will probably see a similar increase in approval ratings after this coming week's Republican convention.

Yes, the land of George Floyd! Is Illinois next?

https://nypost.com/2020/08/20/minnes...dead-heat/amp/

BAHAHAHAHA Originally Posted by bambino

Biden has increased his lead in Florida to +5 (far beyond the margin of error). Biden also has a +5.7 lead in Penn. If Biden flips Florida and Penn the ballgame will be over. Biden/Harris will get to 270 electoral college votes and Trump/Pence go home.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

LOL. Exactly one state, Wisconsin, was called incorrectly by the polls.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...llege_map.html

The summary of polls right before the election, as shown in the link from RealClearPolitics, had 15 states in the Toss Up column. The political "experts" who predicted the electoral vote outcome made assumptions that were incorrect. They were wrong, the polls were not. Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

if you say so

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...ed-their-mark/

Why 2016 election polls missed their mark

The results of Tuesday’s presidential election came as a surprise to nearly everyone who had been following the national and state election polling, which consistently projected Hillary Clinton as defeating Donald Trump. Relying largely on opinion polls, election forecasters put Clinton’s chance of winning at anywhere from 70% to as high as 99%, and pegged her as the heavy favorite to win a number of states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that in the end were taken by Trump.


https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/31/u...out-trump.html


A 2016 Review: Why Key State Polls Were Wrong About Trump

Nearly seven months after the presidential election, pollsters are still trying to answer a question that has rattled trust in their profession: Why did pre-election polls show Hillary Clinton leading Donald J. Trump in the battleground states that decided the presidency? Is political polling fundamentally broken? Or were the errors understandable and correctable?


https://www.businessinsider.com/trum...s-wrong-2017-5

A group of major pollsters just released an autopsy report to explain why the polls were such a disaster in 2016


A conglomerate of top pollsters released an autopsy report last week on polling in the 2016 election — specifically, what went wildly wrong in overwhelming predictions of a Hillary Clinton presidency.


https://www.npr.org/2016/11/14/50201...rong-this-year

4 Possible Reasons The Polls Got It So Wrong This Year

If you followed the presidential polls at all closely, chances are that you expected Hillary Clinton to win last week. So did all of the major prediction models that use polls to game out election outcome probabilities.

So perhaps everyone should have expected that in a year when all political norms were broken, the polls that the political world fixates upon would also prove to be flawed.


https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37922959

Hillary Clinton and the US election: What went wrong for her?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...tion/93523012/

How did pollsters get Trump, Clinton election so wrong?

Pollsters flubbed the 2016 presidential election in seismic fashion.

Donald Trump's victory dealt a devastating blow to the credibility of the nation's leading pollsters, calling into question their mathematical models, assumptions and survey methods.

Several months of polls pegged Hillary Clinton as the leader in the polarizing race and as the leader in many key battleground states.


https://www.vox.com/mischiefs-of-fac...-clinton-trump


Polls got Clinton right; they got Trump wrong

One of the big stories of the 2016 presidential election is just how wrong the polls were. The surveys in the final days of the campaign settled on Hillary Clinton defeating Donald Trump by around four points and winning a solid majority of Electoral College votes. The votes are still being counted, but she has only a slight edge in the popular vote and, of course, lost the Electoral College and the contest. How did the polls do so poorly?

https://www.usnews.com/opinion/op-ed...2016-win-wrong

Why the Polls Were Wrong

Here's how political polling missed Donald Trump's win.
By Michael Pollard Opinion ContributorNov. 10, 2016, at 4:00 p.m.



The highly polarized 2016 presidential election has finally ended, with president-elect Donald Trump winning in the electoral college, but with Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton maintaining a slight edge in the popular vote. Most polls, including our own Presidential Election Panel Survey, had Clinton leading the popular vote, but by larger margins than actually materialized. Poll aggregators like RealClearPolitics are intended to smooth out the variation among polls of different samples, approaches and limitations, making them more accurate than any single poll. They too missed the mark.

The most obvious way the polls misjudged the election is that people who turned out to vote looked very different from voters in other recent elections. Most polls rely on data gathered from people identified by a variety of factors as "likely voters." If the actual voters this year look substantially different than in previous years – not entirely unreasonable given how unusual this election has been – then these models will do poorly. If there are high levels of undercoverage where not all people are accurately represented in survey samples, or if there are particular kinds of systematic nonresponse to poll questions, this effectively misrepresents the electorate as well.

TWK,

I showed you the final polling results from RCP just prior to the 2016 election. That is FACT.

As stated in the first link you cited, FORECASTERS took the data and interpreted it as they saw fit. In another link it was stated that prediction models using the polls were wrong. Another link agreed with what I've been saying -- the majority of the people who were polled as being "Undecided" voted for Trump. Again, the polls were not wrong. The last link cited had data taken following the last debate, weeks before the election.

Trump won the majority of the 15 states RCP had in the toss-up category with the most electoral votes. The models built on the polls had Clinton winning the majority of those states.

Polls in 2018 were near perfect. If you choose to mistrust the current polls I have no problem with that. I expect the polls to tighten over the next 72 days.

Biden has increased his lead in Florida to +5 (far beyond the margin of error). Biden also has a +5.7 lead in Penn. If Biden flips Florida and Penn the ballgame will be over. Biden/Harris will get to 270 electoral college votes and Trump/Pence go home.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ Originally Posted by adav8s28

Florida is by far the key state for Trump. Assuming Trump does not win Minnesota or any other state Clinton won in 2016, if Trump loses Florida then Biden has to win on other key state -- Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, NC, Ohio. Biden can win without Florida. The path to victory for Trump without Florida is difficult.

TWK,

I showed you the final polling results from RCP just prior to the 2016 election. That is FACT.

As stated in the first link you cited, FORECASTERS took the data and interpreted it as they saw fit. In another link it was stated that prediction models using the polls were wrong. Another link agreed with what I've been saying -- the majority of the people who were polled as being "Undecided" voted for Trump. Again, the polls were not wrong. The last link cited had data taken following the last debate, weeks before the election.

Trump won the majority of the 15 states RCP had in the toss-up category with the most electoral votes. The models built on the polls had Clinton winning the majority of those states.

Polls in 2018 were near perfect. If you choose to mistrust the current polls I have no problem with that. I expect the polls to tighten over the next 72 days. Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

yes. and I showed report after report showing how wrong the polls were over the entire race.

so wrong in fact, that they questioned how wrong they were.

But the final polls were right, Whacky.

Your bluster will be rewarded with an eight years vacation. Yous won’t have to justify the ugly things you say every day online because you won’t have to justify the white supremacist in the whites house...thatlll take the pressure off,

Just ask oebsy.

But the final polls were right, Whacky.

Your bluster will be rewarded with an eight years vacation. Yous won’t have to justify the ugly things you say every day online because you won’t have to justify the white supremacist in the whites house...thatlll take the pressure off,

Just ask oebsy. Originally Posted by HoeHummer

ain't u a right wanker. I'm watching "The Gentlemen" .. all sorts of English slang terms.

you should check it out. you might find the farm scene interesting



BAHAHAAAAA

Post Polls all One wants.
The only Poll that matters is Nov 3.



However - let the LSM post their rigged polls showing biden is a shoo-in for POTUS, and is in full control of his faculties with a genius IQ - and not at all 'Racist".


let the DPST minions and sheeples be content in their Goebbels propaganda - and Stay Home on Nov 3.



Or, it will be the last election in America. EVER
Civil WAr is coming.

Post Polls all One wants.
The only Poll that matters is Nov 3.



However - let the LSM post their rigged polls showing biden is a shoo-in for POTUS, and is in full control of his faculties with a genius IQ - and not at all 'Racist".


let the DPST minions and sheeples be content in their Goebbels propaganda - and Stay Home on Nov 3.



Or, it will be the last election in America. EVER
Civil WAr is coming. Originally Posted by oeb11

lol. Biden and genius IQ aren't allowed in the same sentence. this is a fucktard who lied about his education and his class standing.

if you took Joey's brains, Hunter's and the dead one, while he was alive and put them all in a blender you'd still have mush

BAHHAAAA

And currently Lies about his Life-long Racism - if not for lies - like all DPST's - Biden would be silent.

Take whatever poll, add about 10 points to the Trump side and it’ll be pretty close to correct. Originally Posted by Jacuzzme

Yep