Opinions regarding the "fair share" of taxation for the top one percent are obviously all over the map, but I have a feeling that this subject is going to be the most-discussed public policy issue over the next few weeks, or even months.
The public at large will have a chance to render its opinion, too, since a number of pollsters are trying to guage levels of support for increased taxation of the "rich", as well as views concerning the threshold beyond which someone should be considered "rich."
Some on the left (like Paul Krugman, for instance) have said recently that we should go back to the tax structure we had in the 1950s, when the top-bracket income tax rate was as high as 91%. What they always seem to forget, though, is that hardly anyone paid an effective tax rate more than a fraction of that. Prior to the tax reform act of 1986, it was very easy to wipe out most of your tax liability with things like accelerated depreciation on highly leveraged assets.
Some people might recall reading about the discussions leading up to passage of the AMT. A few news reports of the late 1960s indicated that a number of very wealthy households paid little or no federal tax, either on income or capital gains. Responding to public outcry, congress passed legislation designed to ensure that wealthy taxpayers at least pay
something, even though at a rate only a fraction of the "headline" 91%. One big problem with that was that the AMT was not indexed for inflation, so now it hits some taxpayers who aren't well off. So lawmakers are continually confronted with demands for an "AMT fix."
Now the discussion will center on whether to raise more revenue by limiting total deductions and exclusions, raising the top rate, or a combination of both. Republicans will bluster, but I think in the end will give in on the rate issue.
Another big question is what will happen with capital gains and qualified dividend rates. Many of us are beginning to expect the captal gains rate to go from 15% to 23.8%, and that there will be some sort of compromise on qualified dividends -- maybe settling somewhere around the same rate as capital gains.
None of this will raise anywhere near as much revenue as most people think, and it's obviously more about politics than economics.
The discussion involving defense spending and taxation needs to become a little more reality-based. Even during the period when Democrats held the White House and big majorities in both the House and Senate (2009-2010), there was no serious discussion of significant defense cuts -- only nibbling around the edges and cuts in previously assumed increases. But let's get real here -- even if defense spending were cut as much as Barney Frank and Ron Paul proposed,
and if tax rates on the "rich" were returned to pre-Bush years, we'd still be running trillion-doallar deficits.
I believe what TexTushHog was referring to is what's referred to a the "wealth tax." It's popular in Europe and levied in countries like France. Some economists like it since wealth disparity has grown even faster than income disparity.
I came across a piece just last week elucidating the view that the wealth tax should largely replace the income tax, not just be added on top of the existing tax structure:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/19/op...ot-income.html
Look for all sorts of things like this to be discussed in upcoming years.
But I don't think there's any way you can slice the pie in such a way that decidedly non-wealthy households will be spared large tax increases. Try as they may, politicians cannot supersede the laws of simple arithmetic.
American voters have decided that they want levels of social democracy that go way beyond what we had until recent years. We cannot pay for it forever with borrowed and newly-printed money.