Sill waiting to see the "solid reasons" the Dimms should feel confident, speed....
Originally Posted by Chateau Becot
In 2016 Trump won the states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pa. by between .2% and 1.2% of the vote. Traditionally Democratic states. Without those 3 states Trump loses. In 2018 midterms, those states went solidly Democratic. All 3 states elected Democrats for Senator and Governor. In those 3 states, Trump's approval ratings in January 2017 were +6%, +8%, and +10% respectively. In January 2019 they were -16%, -15%, and -10%.
Democrats should feel confident that the 3 states will return to the Democratic side of the ledger in 2020.
Trump's approval ratings remains the lowest overall of any POTUS since approval ratings began with Truman. A poll taken after the Mueller document was released had Trump dropping to 37% approval, tied for the lowest since he took office. The only voting blocs that he has a solid lead in are Evangelical Christians and old, white men without a college education. Trump's approval rating before the 2018 midterms was higher than it is today and Democrats won the House popular vote by 8.6 million votes, the largest margin of victory by EITHER party since 1974. If Trump's approval rating stays where it is today, Democrats should feel very confident going into the 2020 elections.
The 3 most important concerns for voters today are (1) Health Care, (2) Immigration, and (3) The Economy. Trump and the Republicans have done zero on health care and have taken discussion of it off the table until after the 2020 election. On immigration little success is to be found.
Poll: Immigration is top concern and Democrats are winning
"Nearly eight-in-10 cited immigration as a top issue to them in the midterm congressional election and 21 percent call it the “country's most important problem,” according to Gallup.
But while that is likely driven by the president’s focus on the issue since his 2016 election and the recent government shutdown over it, the public is decidedly against Trump’s efforts to build the wall and crackdown on the illegal entry of immigrants into the U.S."
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/poll-immigration-is-top-concern-and-dems-are-winning
Only when it comes to the economy can Trump say anything positive. However, if the economy falters, and many economists are predicting 2019 to be a less robust economy than 2018, Trump might take a hit here too.
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https://www.conference-board.org/data/usforecast.cfm
I'm sure that you've noticed that Trump supporters on this forum point primarily to the economy as to they Trump will be reelected in 2020. As I continue to say, there's too much water to flow under the bridge between today and election day in November 2020 to make an assessment of the election and cast it in stone. Right now either party could win.
