Obama’s approval rating was a bit lower than Trumps at this time.. By your logic, Trump winning is more probable and very much possible. Originally Posted by bambinoAccording to FiveThirtyEight, Obama's approval rating was almost 6 points above Trump's at this point in time in their presidencies. Even Jimmy Carter had a higher approval rating than Trump.
To me, the most significant point to be made about the approval ratings is that at no time has Trump's overall approval rating exceeded 50%. That has never happened in the history of approval ratings. One article I read stated that Trump's approval rating band (highest to lowest rating) is the narrowest in history. No matter what he does, positive or negative, his approval rating barely moves. I'm sure we will interpret that fact differently as to the reasons.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/