How many people will die in the USA from the new coronavirus by December 31, 2021??

J- Thank you, Sir!

It doesn't take an "expert" or an expert to see the most current data points are from 1/26/2020. From 2 months ago. And data on this article is only the first 27 days or about 1 out of 3 months total. The ramp-up/initial period. The 2nd and 3rd months are very different in numbers.
Using any numbers from this article to determine the answers to the "big questions" at this point would still be guessing but at least they have 3 months of input. The scale on the charts in the article has changed dramatically from current graphs, etc.

Since all the calculations come from actual numbers they've inputted, the article numbers will have all changed
Since I'm not an "expert" or an expert, I can't say how much they've changed.
Below is a link to a site with a bunch of helpful charts that have up to Mar. 15th data.

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2...9-virus-charts

Information on infection Rate _ please read the article! It is from Feb 18 - newer material should be coming soon.


These 2 questions will determine if the coronavirus becomes a deadly pandemic


We still don’t have firm answers to the most important questions about this virus.
By Julia Belluz@juliaoftorontojulia.belluz@voxmedia.com Feb 18, 2020, 10:50am EST ps://www.vox.com/2020/2/18/21142009/coronavirus-covid19-china-wuhan-deaths-pandemic
Seven weeks into the outbreak of the new coronavirus, we’re still far from answering an urgent question: Will this become a deadly pandemic that sweeps around the world?
Since China first announced the outbreak on December 31, 73,336 cases have been recorded, including 1,875 deaths.
While the vast majority of cases and deaths are still occurring in mainland China, Covid-19 has already made its way to at least 25 other countries, including the US, Malaysia, Egypt, and Canada. Markets are on edge. Businesses and cruise ship itineraries have been interrupted. Cities and countries are responding with unprecedented quarantines and travel bans. The whole thing feels a lot like the 2011 pandemic film Contagion.
But to know whether this is really the next deadly pandemic — a disease that spreads globally and could kill millions of people — we need answers to two basic questions: How easily does Covid-19 spread from person to person, and how severe is the virus? At the moment, scientists only have informed guesses, which are likely to solidify in the coming weeks and months. But they’re learning more by the day — and what we know so far is instructive.
The R0, explained

With every disease outbreak, epidemiologists try to figure out how far — and how fast — a virus is likely to spread through a population. To do that, they use the basic reproduction number, called the “R naught,” or R0.
The figure refers to how many other people one sick person is likely to infect on average in a group that’s susceptible to the disease (meaning they don’t already have immunity from a vaccine or from fighting off the disease before).
The R0 is super important in the context of public health because it foretells how big an outbreak will be. The higher the number, the greater likelihood a lot of people will fall sick.
Measles, the most contagious virus researchers know about, can linger in the air of a room and sicken people up to two hours after an infected person who coughed or sneezed there has left. If people exposed to the virus aren’t vaccinated, measles’ R0 can be as high as 18.
Ebola is more deadly but much less efficient: Its R0 is typically just 2, in part, because many infected individuals die before they can pass the virus to someone else.
Related
A SARS-like virus is spreading quickly. Here’s what you need to know.


Now, here’s a big caveat: The R0 is not “something that is fixed,” said Marion Koopmans, who studies emerging infectious diseases and heads the department of virology at the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam, Netherlands.
That’s because diseases behave differently in different environments, depending on factors like population density and susceptibility to a disease in a population. For example, in the case of norovirus — that nasty and highly contagious bug infamous for causing outbreaks of stomach flu on cruise ships — the R0 estimates vary depending on whether the outbreak is contained in one place (like a hospital) or spread more widely.

Some individuals are also more contagious — and have a higher R0 — than others, because of their viral load, for example, or the airflow in the building where they’re sick. (The folks who are especially contagious are known as “super-spreaders.”)Diseases can also spread more easily in places with a weak public health system.
What we know about how easily the new coronavirus spreads

With these caveats in mind, here’s what we know about the R0 for the new coronavirus.
There are literally dozens of estimates about Covid-19’s R0 floating around, from research groups around the world. And different research groups use different statistical models, assumptions, and data to plug into their models. According to a World Health Organization spokesperson, Tarik Jašarević, as of February 17, the estimates of R0 spread are uniformly above 1 (meaning the virus is sustaining itself among humans), and most settle around 2 to 2.5 (meaning each infected person is causing two or 2.5 others to become infected).

If one narrows the estimates to some of the world’s top epidemiological modeling labs — like Maia Majumder’s at Boston Children’s Hospital or Christian Althaus’s at the University of Bern or Jon Read’s at Lancaster or China CDC’s — the range looks a little broader: 2 to 3.11. That would make the new coronavirus more contagious than seasonal flu and potentially even more contagious than SARS.

“Given the recent emergence of this disease, the very limited data available, and the very different methods employed for estimation, the consistency of these estimates is remarkable,” Toronto epidemiologist David Fisman told Vox in an email.
Still, it’s early days. “It’s difficult or impossible to get an accurate R0 at the beginning of an epidemic,” said Daniel Lucey, an infectious diseases physician and adjunct professor of infectious diseases at Georgetown University Medical Center. We don’t yet know exactly when or how the outbreak began, where it’s spread, or how many people are sick. Only in the coming weeks — as researchers gather more data on how the virus is moving — will they be able to refine the R0. And, again, it’ll likely look different in low-income countries in Africa than it will in high-income countries like the US or Canada.
Related



For now, though, there are a couple of things they can say. “Because it’s above 1, that means we know it can cause sustained transmission in humans,” said Maia Majumder, faculty at Boston Children’s Hospital’s Computational Health Informatics Program. An R0 below 1 means an outbreak is likely to burn out. But, “Just because the number is high [like SARS’s R0 or the upper end of the current Covid-19 estimate] doesn’t mean it’s going to cause a massive pandemic.”
“We do have good examples of high reproductive number diseases like SARS,” Majumder added. “It had no vaccine, no specific care approach, and we still managed to get the situation under control.” That’s because the R0 can’t account for all the interventions public health officials put in place, like antivirals or infection control measures in hospitals.
Plus, Jašarević, the WHO spokesperson said, “how quickly a virus spreads is not linked to how sick it can make people. Though Covid-19 may spread more easily than SARS, it is not as deadly. That said, it still has the potential to make many people sick and to kill some, and thus containing or managing its impact are global priorities.” So let’s turn to what we know about Covid-19’s deadliness.
What we know about how deadly the coronavirus is

Next to the R0, the other most important way to understand how bad an outbreak could get is the case fatality rate, or CFR. In simple terms, it’s the proportion of deaths a disease causes within a group of people who have the disease.
Here, too, there are problems with arriving at a solid estimate at the moment. To have a firm understanding of the CFR, you need to know how many people in a population have the virus, and among those, how many die.And early on in outbreaks, we don’t often know.
That’s because the sickest are usually the ones who show up at doctor’s offices and in hospitals. But there may be hundreds or thousands of others with the virus who never show symptoms, or never bother going to see a doctor because they’re not very sick. (That’s why the CFR can often look much worse in the early days of an outbreak.)
Getting an accurate CFR would require a survey of the Chinese population to find out who has antibodies for the virus, said Majumder, including the folks who didn’t even know they had it. That’ll give experts the denominator — the real case toll — in the CFR equation. “Until we’ve done [that] — and I’m sure it’ll happen sometime in the future — there are going to be some people that have mild infections or are asymptomatic infections that we’re not picking up.”
And as it stands, we don’t yet have the serology test we’d need to do this type of testing. Plus, since the virus has an incubation period of up to two weeks, there are many people with the infection in limbo or still in hospitals, who may or may not survive the pneumonia that comes with it.
So while there’s a great hunger for clarity about how bad the outbreak will become, frustratingly at this stage, researchers need time to work that out.
In the meantime, we have some preliminary estimates we can look to. On February 16, China’s CDC published a report of the first 72,314 patients with confirmed or suspected Covid-19 in mainland China. It’s the largest such analysis to date. And it found an overall CFR of 2.3 — suggesting Covid-19 is less deadly than SARS, which had a CFR of around 10 percent.
They also found a huge variation in the case fatality rate by age group. In short, the CFR goes up with each passing decade. You can see the trend in this table from the study — the CFR rises from 0.2 in people ages 10 to 19 to 1.3 in 50-year-olds to 14.8 in those who are 80-plus:
Case fatality rates in mainland China as of February 11, 2020. China CDC One major caveat here: This data comes from mainland China, where all but six of the 1,875 deaths have occurred. And for reasons no one understands, the case fatality rate has been lower outside of mainland China.
But, again, it’ll be a while before we know the true number of cases and have a better understanding of the deaths.
Here is what we know for sure: While nearly 2,000 people have died in this outbreak so far, seasonal flu kills between 250,000 and 650,000 people annually. For most people, “you’re probably more likely to be catching flu than you are to be getting coronavirus,” said Devi Sridhar, chair in global public health at the University of Edinburgh.





We've updated our transmissibility assessment for #nCoV2019! R_0 estimates (based off of publicly reported confirmed cases through 1/26/20 & subject to change) remain ~stable, now ranging from 2.0 to 3.1.
















if we assume the R0 of Wuhan coronavirus is around 2-3 - meaning for each infected person - 2-3 other people will be infected and a case mortality rate of likely less than 0.1% - We have a snapshot of the disease impact. The above case fatality rates are from very early numbers out of Chin, primarily - and better information is developing.

FYI!


Now - what nonsense will the resident fireman and other assorted DPST "experts" have to offer - Trump hate and Trump is responsible for having the American military plant the virus in Wuhan! Originally Posted by oeb11

As to other underlying illnesses, you have about 1.2 million people die every year in the USA from cancer and heart disease. So in the sands of time this will be a blip. The problem is the stress on our health care system right now and in the immediate future.

Yes my 20% infection rate may be way too high. It depends on changes in behavior and how quickly a vaccine is developed and distributed. Say we carry on like we always have. For many of us this means regular visits to our local strip clubs and providers, and lots of DFK'ing. (Trying to come up with an example relevant to eccie.) If things like that continue you'll probably see an infection rate higher than 20%. Originally Posted by Tiny

I agree.

I can only hope that nobody in his or her right mind is still “lobbying ” during this viral outbreak.

The best way to stop this virus in it’s tracks is to avoid other human beings. Period.

While that might not be totally practical, at least avoid as many people as possible.

Tiny - thank you Sir - China's number are not to be believed - unless you also choose to believe the Chinese allegation that the American military engineered and planted the virus in Wuhan.



I maintain the real case mortality rate - taking into an account of the asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic undiagnosed estimate - will be 0.1% - or less. Of those infected - and the majority of deaths will be elderly + / - underlying medical problems.



Likely a lower or similar case fatality rate to Inifluenza A - when all is said and done.

Dr Brett Giroir echoed this number a couple of days ago. Originally Posted by oeb11

I'm leaning toward that case rate estimate and feel like in the next two weeks we can test one million people (we tested over half a million in the last 7 days) and when we do that we can start testing everyone, including the young and asymptomatic, and get the true case rate.

Right now, I would say hospitalizations would be the thing to measure, and compare against the rate this time last year.

LOL, He didn't do anything. Shutting off flights from China didn't do squat genius. He shut off flights and said it was a Democratic Hoax and that there was no danger. Then he said that the media and the public were over reacting. Then he blamed the Chinese. He told people to travel and go spend money when any fool could see what it was doing in other countries.

He didn't listen to doctors and shut down the pandemic office and tried to cut their budget. You can't even get tested unless you are very sick. We don't test, supplies and many people will die.

Bow to Trump and kiss his ring especially after he will be responsible for 200 thousand Americans dying. Originally Posted by FrankZappa

Many experts believe cutting off flights was very effective, asshole.

Plus, the hoax part of it was the spin from the left wingers that he didn't do enough.

Last 7 days in the US, we have results from over 500,000 tests conducted and results back - we are testing more than anyone else.

In a few days, a cumulative total of over one million motherfuckers will be tested and results published.

Good stuff, thanks. It seems everyone (other than the deranged ‘OMFG Trump’ crowd) is learning lots about infectious diseases, which can only be good moving forward. Originally Posted by Jacuzzme

Dang glass half empty thinking, if you ask me. JK

I focus on the positive; the deranged ‘OMFG Trump’ crowd is NOT learning lots about infectious diseases, which can only be good moving forward. All hail Darwin!

Plus, the hoax part of it was the spin from the left wingers that he didn't do enough.

. Originally Posted by friendly fred

Hoax?

He didn't do enough initially.

He have too many Americans a false sense of security. This contributed to the spread.

He has done ok since acknowledging the problem. He still gets in petty spats with folks who do not praise him.

He has made all his followers stimulus loving Keynesians!

Hoax? Originally Posted by WTF

The Hoax has been the bullshit mis-representation of what Trump actually said.

He didn't do enough initially. Originally Posted by WTF

He closed flights to China while being bashed by the left for Xenophobia/racism/whatever else they could come up with.

He also declared a national health emergency to clear the way to allow needed areas to react and mobilize efforts.

He have too many Americans a false sense of security. This contributed to the spread. Originally Posted by WTF

There is a fine line in promoting panic, which is what the Dems want and trying to remain optimistic.

He has done ok since acknowledging the problem. He still gets in petty spats with folks who do not praise him. Originally Posted by WTF

Glad you can at least acknowledge that.

He has made all his followers stimulus loving Keynesians! Originally Posted by WTF

Not even close to the truth, but nice try. Most of his followers think the stimulus was overdone with pork/etc, but something was needed. Your attempts as faux outrage continue to make us all laugh.

Hoax?

He didn't do enough initially.

He have too many Americans a false sense of security. This contributed to the spread.

He has done ok since acknowledging the problem. He still gets in petty spats with folks who do not praise him.

He has made all his followers stimulus loving Keynesians! Originally Posted by WTF

We don't loves Keynesian stimulus but we acknowledge we need it in an emergency. I'm hoping your taxes increase to pay for it!

Orange in chief twit head n the great state of Texas wants old people to die. It's really stupid gop reasoning. Old ignorant racist clueless redneck are their base

My neighbor who suffers from end stage TDS just told me that not a single person would have died if Democrats ( read Hillary ) was in charge. Every death is Trump's fault.



Nothing could have prevented this any more than Obama could have prevented Ebola or H1N1 and it seems the only treatment for TDS is a hanky.

Ever seen "When Mars Attacks" - spoof with many well known folks - including jim Brown?
It will be very interesting to watch the Fascist DPST folks with TDS - to see their heads explode when Trump is re-elected in Nov 2020!!!


Idiots are suffering from cnn over-exposure.

LOL, He didn't do anything. Shutting off flights from China didn't do squat genius. He shut off flights and said it was a Democratic Hoax and that there was no danger. Then he said that the media and the public were over reacting. Then he blamed the Chinese. He told people to travel and go spend money when any fool could see what it was doing in other countries.

He didn't listen to doctors and shut down the pandemic office and tried to cut their budget. You can't even get tested unless you are very sick. We don't test, supplies and many people will die.

Bow to Trump and kiss his ring especially after he will be responsible for 200 thousand Americans dying. Originally Posted by FrankZappa

Let's not be lying during these times. Most health officials do give a lot of credit for shutting down travel to China when he did for giving us weeks to prepare. Your bitter accusation won't change that. He even took the arrows when the democratic elites accused him of racism at the time.
He NEVER said that Corona was a hoax. Just another democrat talking point. He said the fearmongering and finger pointing by the media and democrats was a hoax.
Obama cut the budget to the CDC. Trump increased their budget and folded the pandemic research team into a larger team for the same of efficiency.
You can get away with lying under normal circumstances but these are not them. Your bitter, evil attempt is truly deplorable.

Here’s to acreage with no crazy neighbors to deal with!

Here’s to acreage with no crazy neighbors to deal with! Originally Posted by Jacuzzme

Yeah I bet those hive dwelling Dems in the cities are wishing they had a piece of fly over country with us poor deplorables right now.