Anyone else listen to Mannarino?
Originally Posted by HoHound
No. This guy is one of many purveyors of what many of us refer to as "doom porn" -- the sort of stuff that's peddled to those who seem to believe that there's a conspiracy behind every tree and a financial collapse just around the corner at any given time. To be sure, there are plenty of elements of instability embedded in our (and the world's) financial and monetary systems. But people like this don't understand them, or don't care, since their primary goal is to sell podcasts and videos touting the wonderfulness of cryptocurrencies and other alternative assets.
Roundup of a few more comments and replies to posts of others curious about this and related issues:
I keep enough money in the bank to pay bills and that's all. Stacking gold and silver coins is the best strategy to reduce risk from failing banks and rising inflation. If you believe the federal government, deep state media, and the corporations have your best interest, YOU are the brain dead conspiracy theorist. Have fun wiping your ass with those worthless dollars.
Originally Posted by HoHound
In my view, the only risk of bank failures in the near-to-intermediate future arises from the likelihood of CRE mortgage defaults over the next 12-24 months, and is almost exclusively limited to smaller regional banks. In particular, owners of sub-class A office buildings financed with lower interest rate loans scheduled to reset within the next year or two are in serious trouble. One friend of mine with a great deal more detailed understanding of this issue estimates that this could be a $250 billion problem over the next three years. Still, the risks are not exactly unknown, and the biggest banks (especially JP Morgan Chase, but also B of A and a few others) stand to pick up some assets "on the cheap" and become even stronger than they are now.
Inflation? It began spiking rather alarmingly a couple of years ago, of course -- but has been on the wane for some time now, and looks likely to remain quiescent.
So, the risk inherent in holding balances in any of the larger banks today is nil. Still, if that concerns you, you can always park your liquid funds in T-bills while awaiting a more attractively priced market for whatever strikes your investment fancies. The 3-month through 12-month portion of the UST yield curve now pays close to 5.5% (which is actually about 3.25% after-tax, since the income tax rate on interest is 40.8%). Nothing to get all giddy about, obviously, but a lot better than what you'd get for your liquid funds a couple of years ago.
Is there any prudence in keeping some fraction of my net worth in something tangible such as Art or precious metals?
Originally Posted by ICU 812
Art? A hard "no," in my view. Gold or other precious metals? I like to own a little gold, and have for many years -- and see it as a store of value. However, though it's not a "precious metal," I like copper even more, and have owned some Southern Copper Corporation shares for at least 15 years, adding a bit more here and there over the years. It pays a pretty good dividend as well as owning substantial reserves.
A number of promoters of LPs and SPACs have been touting art during the past couple of years. Generally, the pitch runs something like this: Wealthy art collectors have enjoyed huge gains recently in the market value of fine art. The trouble with this is that people suffer from "extrapolation bias." In other words, since this stuff has had quite a run-up in market value, it will continue to do so. The problem is that a lot of people are likely to buy in at or near a market peak and then lose money or at the very least have trouble selling out of an illiquid investment vehicle.
Now please, speak to the possibility of the US going to a crypto dollar and recalling or cancelling hard currency. Is that a real thing or just more scare talk?
Originally Posted by ICU 812
More scare talk. Part and parcel of the "doom porn" purveyance.
As I said earlier, doom porn sells!