November 5, 2019 Elections

What I see is a sitting Governor down by as much as 15 points just three weeks ago come close to winning last night.

How?

President Trump came to town.

If he can swing 15 points by simply making an appearance, that’s political power.

By the way. The new AG elect in Kentucky is a Republican. He is also a Black Man.

https://www.courier-journal.com/stor...ce/4155926002/ Originally Posted by Jackie S

Not sure what polls you were looking at:

Poll taken right before the election, before Trump's visit: Bevin +6.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...rnor/kentucky/

You are correct in that Bevin closed a large gap in the weeks prior to the election.

Originally Posted by WTF

Concentrate on #5, that's the basis for most of the problems in this country right now.

Tuesday was not a monumental victory for Democrats, but it was in my opinion a solid victory. Yes, 5 other Republicans won in lower level elections in Kentucky. Republicans held Mississippi. No surprise. What I look at is the Trump margin of victory in 2016 vs. the margin of victory (or loss) by Republican candidates in 2018 and 2019 in major elections. In almost every case, the margin of victory is substantially less than in 2016. That means either more Democrats are hitting the polls relative to Republicans or voters who supported Trump in 2016 are now voting Democratic. What does this mean for November 2020? Impossible to say. Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Go back and look at Obama’s first term. The Dems were getting destroyed but Obama still won re—election. Make that comparison.

Go back and look at Obama’s first term. The Dems were getting destroyed but Obama still won re—election. Make that comparison. Originally Posted by bambino

As I said. It is difficult to beat an incumbent, especially at the presidential level. Obama's approval ratings in November 2012 were on the positive side. Trump's approval ratings a year before election are minus double digits. A POTUS seeking reelection has never won with a negative approval rating.

It all depends on which factor one wants to put the most faith.

I still put the election at 50-50. There are reasons for both sides to have optimism for victory.

the Congressional victory for the Dems in 2018 was the largest swing in history. the Republicans have not done well since. Trump is making Louisiana his second home, to try and take the Governorship there. these boys look desperate.

Yupper # 5 they still running around like chicken little

the Congressional victory for the Dems in 2018 was the largest swing in history. the Republicans have not done well since. Trump is making Louisiana his second home, to try and take the Governorship there. these boys look desperate. Originally Posted by Chung Tran

Another abject lie by you. Clinton lost 53 house seats and 7 senate seats. Obama lost 63 house seats. Trump lost 40 house seats and picked up 2 senate seats.


https://nationalinterest.org/blog/bu...-history-35297

Another abject lie by you. Clinton lost 53 house seats and 7 senate seats. Obama lost 63 house seats. Trump lost 40 house seats and picked up 2 senate seats.


https://nationalinterest.org/blog/bu...-history-35297 Originally Posted by bambino

There are so many angles to look at.

In 2012 Obama lost 2 states that he won in 2008 -- Indiana and North Carolina. 26 fewer electoral votes in 2012 than 2008.

Trump has 35 EVs to lose and still win reelection. Florida alone is worth 29 EVs. Trump won Florida by 1.3%. Not exactly a landslide. If Democrats can turn 2 red states blue, with one of them being Florida, they win the election.

Just one possible scenario.

As I said. It is difficult to beat an incumbent, especially at the presidential level. Obama's approval ratings in November 2012 were on the positive side. Trump's approval ratings a year before election are minus double digits. A POTUS seeking reelection has never won with a negative approval rating.

It all depends on which factor one wants to put the most faith.

I still put the election at 50-50. There are reasons for both sides to have optimism for victory. Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

With your candidates you're going to need more than optimism.
Do tell SPEED what are the candidates offer besides TRILLION dollar spending and the front runners 50+ TRILLION dollar Medicare-for-all...even top dem donors said they will not support this kind of runaway socialist nonsense
I hope the use of word "socialist" isn't too offensive to you...
Another 72' and 84' lopsided victory over too left and too radical...TDS isn't your friend

With your candidates you're going to need more than optimism.
Do tell SPEED what are the candidates offer besides TRILLION dollar spending and the front runners 50+ TRILLION dollar Medicare-for-all...even top dem donors said they will not support this kind of runaway socialist nonsense
I hope the use of word "socialist" isn't too offensive to you...
Another 72' and 84' lopsided victory over too left and too radical...TDS isn't your friend Originally Posted by bb1961

I've asked you several times. You are expecting a Trump landslide in 2020, which means about 375 electoral votes. He won 306 EVs in 2016. Which states do you predict he will win to add 69 EVs to his total?

Not one person on this forum who predicts a Trump landslide can answer that question. Can you?

With your candidates you're going to need more than optimism.
Do tell SPEED what are the candidates offer besides TRILLION dollar spending and the front runners 50+ TRILLION dollar Medicare-for-all...even top dem donors said they will not support this kind of runaway socialist nonsense
I hope the use of word "socialist" isn't too offensive to you...
Another 72' and 84' lopsided victory over too left and too radical...TDS isn't your friend Originally Posted by bb1961

I've asked you several times. You are expecting a Trump landslide in 2020, which means about 375 electoral votes. He won 306 EVs in 2016. Which states do you predict he will win to add 69 EVs to his total?
Wj

Not one person on this forum who predicts a Trump landslide can answer that question. Can you? Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Where the fuck are you coming up with the 375 figure...pulling it out of you ass??

You must have your TDS head up you ass.
EVERYONE on the left (excluding the radical base) says that this radical far left wing ideology that the top two...poker and Bernie are spewing every fucking day is going to be a disaster come election day
This present day in-your-face full tilt leftwing racialism is MUCH worse than the McGovern and Mondale leftwing policies they PROMISED and look at those results.

You continue to talk swing states...they are not going to go for the MASSIVE Gumment power grab...the obummercare wss COMPLETELY partisan and look what that disastrous policy as brought us.

This impeachment circus is going to seal the lid on the coffin of the dems.

You stuck you foot in you mouth again in regards to Tuesday election...on a whole the Republican did much better that your party...don't try and convince me "I don't know your political leanings"...that is a load of CRAP!! You were giddy about thedims taking back the house and now you should be proud of the shit show circus they are putting on. Have the Republicans EVER done anything this STUPID??


Show me ANYWHERE in ALL of you posts where you support less spending and smaller Gumment...your post history is proves just the opposite.

I will say that with either of those two as the nominee Trump WILL WIN with a LARGER margin then in 2016...you want to wager just name it!!

Who talks like that, eh? Hair pulling and scratching like a little girl.

Give your balls a tug!

Who talks like that, eh? Hair pulling and scratching like a little girl.

Give your balls a tug! Originally Posted by HoeHummer

thank you Mamboolah/Yssup Rider self-outed poster!

Where the fuck are you coming up with the 375 figure...pulling it out of you ass??

You must have your TDS head up you ass.
EVERYONE on the left (excluding the radical base) says that this radical far left wing ideology that the top two...poker and Bernie are spewing every fucking day is going to be a disaster come election day
This present day in-your-face full tilt leftwing racialism is MUCH worse than the McGovern and Mondale leftwing policies they PROMISED and look at those results.

You continue to talk swing states...they are not going to go for the MASSIVE Gumment power grab...the obummercare wss COMPLETELY partisan and look what that disastrous policy as brought us.

This impeachment circus is going to seal the lid on the coffin of the dems.

You stuck you foot in you mouth again in regards to Tuesday election...on a whole the Republican did much better that your party...don't try and convince me "I don't know your political leanings"...that is a load of CRAP!! You were giddy about thedims taking back the house and now you should be proud of the shit show circus they are putting on. Have the Republicans EVER done anything this STUPID??


Show me ANYWHERE in ALL of you posts where you support less spending and smaller Gumment...your post history is proves just the opposite.

I will say that with either of those two as the nominee Trump WILL WIN with a LARGER margin then in 2016...you want to wager just name it!! Originally Posted by bb1961

Landslide election for POTUS:

Electoral College

Of course, the United States does not elect its presidents by popular vote. It instead uses the Electoral College system. There are 538 electoral votes up for grabs in a presidential race, so how many would a candidate have to win to achieve a landslide?

Again, there is no legal or constitutional definition of a landslide in a presidential election. But political journalists have offered their own suggested guidelines for determining a landslide victory over the years. One generally agreed upon definition of an Electoral College landslide is a presidential election in which the winning candidate secures at least 375 or 70 percent of the electoral votes.

https://www.thoughtco.com/definition...ection-3367585

So with that widely accepted definition of a "landslide" in the Electoral College, which additional states do you see Trump winning in 2020 that he lost in 2016. You seem to be unwilling, or unable, to answer that very simple question. Ellen answered it. Bambino answered it. JD Barleycorn answered it. Probably others I'm failing to mention answered it too.

BTW. I support less spending in government. Never said otherwise at any time. You claim I have said otherwise in my posts. I challenge you to support that statement. Smaller government? I don't know what that is. Less government jobs? Less government agencies? I do believe that there are some government run agencies that are better off at the Federal level than at the state level -- Social Security, Medicare, TSA, ICE, FBI.

I have made a handful of predictions on the 2020 elections. Trump will lose the popular vote by a larger margin than he did in 2016 and he will win less electoral votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. Wager? Sorry, I don't wager with people I do not know on a hooker board.

As I said. It is difficult to beat an incumbent, especially at the presidential level. Obama's approval ratings in November 2012 were on the positive side. Trump's approval ratings a year before election are minus double digits. A POTUS seeking reelection has never won with a negative approval rating.

It all depends on which factor one wants to put the most faith.

I still put the election at 50-50. There are reasons for both sides to have optimism for victory. Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

While you remain one of the more rational posters in polling/etc in this forum, It's funny how you fail to mention that Obama at nearly the same time in his term(early Nov 2011) as Trump is now was also fairly significantly underwater in approval ratings. You mention Obama in Nov 2012 somehow in comparison to Trump in the year equivalently earlier. Not the apples to apples comparison by any means.