Blah, blah, blah.You have his 214?
You should have been court martialed instead of being discharged with a BCD. Originally Posted by Tigbitties38
I thought not.
... Is the prosecution of a rich white prick really going to spell the end of The United States... Originally Posted by txdot-guy
And the Lord spake, saying, "First shalt thou take out the Holy Pin. Then shalt thou count to three, no more-no less. Three shall be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shall be three. Four shalt thou not count, neither count thou two, excepting that thou then proceed to three.Actually, it's more likely the thing that will save it. Saul Goodman. Well... except for that Step #2, i.e. little rough patch, in the whole National Divorce part. Maybe Adam Sandler said it better on SNL- "When you pull the pin from Mr Hand Grenade, he is no longer your friend"
Great thread -- excellent posts by everyone except Tigbitties.i'll give you tigbitties..just read his posts if you can
On the other hand, if the substantive cases against Trump, for trying to steal the election, come to the forefront in 2024, and he's the nominee, you'll see outraged Democrats going to the polls in even greater numbers than 2020.
Many Democrats believed that Merrick Garland was crazy for not bringing charges against Trump before now. Well, maybe he was crazy. Crazy like a fox!
Crafty Democrats! Originally Posted by Tiny
I think..... Originally Posted by txdot-guyLet me stop you right there. Whatever you imagine the reasons that it upsets people, if it has nothing to do with selective prosecution of political rivals, you're wrong.
the reason so many people seem to be having a brain aneurysm over this prosecution is that it's happening to a rich white demagogue. Originally Posted by txdot-guyYeah.. you proved me right.
Political prosecutions happen all the time but usually to less well connected, less rich, less white people. Is the prosecution of a rich white prick really going to spell the end of The United States. I would bet against it. Originally Posted by txdot-guyIn and of itself? No... but how do you feel about Republicans charging Obama, Clinton, Biden, and any other politician they can? WOULD THAT BE A THREAT TO THE EXISTENCE OF THE NATION?
If this indictment is so weak as to be "political" then let Trump spend a little of his money defending it. Originally Posted by txdot-guyWow, that's some real genius level thinking there. What's to stop YOU from being charged with a politically motivated crime? You say it happens all the time... How bout the government destroy you financially while doing nothing to your neighbor who does the exact same thing but has different political leanings?
All the while he's fundraising off of it and getting millions of dollars in "on average" thirty-five dollar donations. Originally Posted by txdot-guyIf the average donation is $35 you can probably understand that there are a LOT of people concerned about this stupidity and where it could lead.
I think the reason so many people seem to be having a brain aneurysm over this prosecution is that it's happening to a rich white demagogue. Political prosecutions happen all the time but usually to less well connected, less rich, less white people. Is the prosecution of a rich white prick really going to spell the end of The United States. I would bet against it.No it won't but the re-election of a Brain Dead Liberal who goes along to get along just might.
If this indictment is so weak as to be "political" then let Trump spend a little of his money defending it.
All the while he's fundraising off of it and getting millions of dollars in "on average" thirty-five dollar donations. Originally Posted by txdot-guy
but georgia a substantive case? its another out of context partisan case Originally Posted by nevergaveitathoughtI'm a big believer in mens rea, the principle that if a person isn't aware he's committing a crime, then he shouldn't necessarily be convicted of the crime.
Great thread -- excellent posts by everyone except Tigbitties.I guess Republicans could always hang Trump out to dry and nominate someone else. That’d show us Democrats that Republicans can’t be so easily manipulated.
This indictment in New York is coming five years after the Stormy Daniels story broke, and 6-1/2 years after Trump committed these imaginary felonies related to the payoff. Why did it take so long? Well, just as Democrats in Georgia were mad as hell and motivated to vote in the Senate runoffs in January, 2021, when Trump was trying to steal the 2020 election, so Republican voters are mad as hell at the Donald being indicted on these trumped up charges. If the indictment had happened last year, the Democrats wouldn't have fared as well at the polls. Republicans might control the Senate.
Rank and file Republicans are coming to the defense of Trump, and his popularity among party members has gone up. On predictit.org, punters' wagers indicate his probability of winning the Republican nomination in 2024 has gone up from 28% to 47% since the start of 2023.
The Democrats want to run against Trump, not against another Republican who will win.
On the other hand, if the substantive cases against Trump, for trying to steal the election, come to the forefront in 2024, and he's the nominee, you'll see outraged Democrats going to the polls in even greater numbers than 2020.
So the timing of all this is playing out in the Democrats' favor. File bull shit charges against Trump early on to make him a martyr among the Republican party faithful, which will help him in the primaries. Then wait to get him in a courtroom for the election shenanigans until 2024.
Many Democrats believed that Merrick Garland was crazy for not bringing charges against Trump before now. Well, maybe he was crazy. Crazy like a fox!
Crafty Democrats! Originally Posted by Tiny
I guess Republicans could always hang Trump out to dry and nominate someone else. That’d show us Democrats that Republicans can’t be so easily manipulated.Another excellent post in an excellent thread. Like worker bees who do what's best for the hive but don't know it, I don't think Democrats consciously have a master plan. But did Garland and Biden perhaps believe it would be better politically to bring charges against Trump after the 2022 election and before the 2024 election, rather than last year? Did Bragg decide it would be better to time things so that Trump was indicted after the 2022 election? Neither would surprise me.
I like your prognostication but it’s overall conspiratorial dreaming.
Knowledge of the hush money payment and the scheme to pull it off wasn’t known when it occurred. And while Trump was president no one federal or state was gonna charge him with a crime so it wasn’t until he left office that taking cases before a grand jury was even possible. Then it takes time to build a case. This is not Law and Order, the Good Wife or Ally McBeal where a case is started and tried in what appears to be a couple months. It takes time to gather evidence, particularly when you have noncooperative witnesses.
For instance Arbery was murdered in February 2020, the trial wasn’t until November 2021. That’s 18 months. For a case with no real issues, with video, with no witnesses located across the country or with possible privilege issues, and something that is for all it entailed a simple straightforward case. A better example and more similar is the corruption case against Robert Melendez, a grand jury was opened in 2013 for crimes alleged to have been committed around 2006. He was indicted in 2015. His trial started on 2017. That’s 4 years from grand jury to trial and 2 years from grand jury to indictment. That’s how it works. It’s a slow process.
To think there’s some master plan of waiting because of the elections to indict trump in hopes he wins is the kinda shit pushed on Hannity and Carlson. Not based in reality or fact, just silliness and lack of understanding of how real life in the legal system works.
Be better Tiny.
Now, as for the cases
The hush money case is the least of the issues. He could get tried and found guilty but I suspect at some point his lawyers will tell him to plead to the misdemeanor charges and have them consolidated down to misdemeanor and a conspiracy charge. He won’t do it, but that’s the advice he’ll get and should take. He will likely not want to aliquot to the crime but if he was smart he’d do it and make this go away. Otherwise it’s a distraction for him and his lawyers. But since he’s spending Salty’s money on his defense I suppose it’s ok.
The incitement of Jan 6, won’t go anywhere but again, it’s a distraction and money drain.
The Georgia election interference and manipulation call will be trouble. He will find himself likely having a hung jury in Atlanta but it’ll be a tough one and they’ll likely try him twice, because they can. He has no real defense but he has to just hope the one trumpy on the jury refuses to find him guilty.
The crime I believe he’ll be dead to rights on is the documents. If the most recent revelation that he directed that boxes with docs be moved after he was served with the subpoena and that he checked those boxes and instructed his lawyers to lie about their subsequent search, he’s gonna get the book thrown at him in DC. He could get real jail time (2-3 years). He’d have to win election, possibly after being found guilty and pardon himself. That’d tear the nation apart at the seams. Republicans would likely lose elections for a decade. Originally Posted by 1blackman1
I'm a big believer in mens rea, the principle that if a person isn't aware he's committing a crime, then he shouldn't necessarily be convicted of the crime.Trump would have to be convicted of treason, or nearly treason, to disqualify him from running. Paying off a woman (if it happened) doesn't do it. We had murderer Ted Kennedy running for office for years. Remember, manslaughter is a form of murder.
If you read the transcript of the conversation between Trump and Raffensperger, it sure sounds like Trump believes he would have won if not for election fraud. He even warned Raffensperger that he was committing a criminal offense for not rooting out election fraud. I suspect that Trump believed his own bull shit. Sidney Powell and Rudy Giuliani came to him with a cock and bull story and he believed it.
Anyway, the attempt to overturn the results in those states where election results were close and have the state legislators determine the results of the election was more problematic. As were the alternate sets of electors from some of those states.
In a way I'd like to see Trump stay out of jail, because it would make the USA look bad in the eyes of the world, like another banana republic. On the other hand, if Trump is removed as a presidential contender as a result of a conviction, that could be a good thing for Republicans. Originally Posted by Tiny