Now all those people citing polls seven months before the election are dangerously naive. A lot can change, and will, in seven months. The big thing that the democrats choose to ignore at their peril is excitement of the voter. Trump supporters have all the excitement. Will the Bernie bros vote for Biden? I don't think the democrats know. How about moderate women in the age of #me too? What about blacks? Trump is making inroads. Take all this into account and Biden is behind the eight-ball.
Originally Posted by the_real_Barleycorn
I am by far the person who cites polls the most. Naive? I don't think so. I repeat the same caveats that eccielover states. They represent the opinions of a randomly selected subset of voters at a specific point in time. As you say a lot can change in 7 months but polls at this point in time can still tell a story. I find it interesting the same people who disparage the polls, including Trump, hop all over them when they are favorable to their cause. Why do you think the White House runs internal polls?
I don't disagree with your other statements. Trump certainly generates more excitement among voters than Biden. That won't move any undecided voters over to his side but we all know that his base will be out there on election day in force. By election day the sexual allegations made against Biden will be long forgotten, just as the 20+ sexual allegations made against Trump in 2016 were long forgotten by election day. My guess is blacks will show up in support of Biden much more than they did for Hillary. Trump received about 8% of the black vote in 2016 and currently he has a 10% approval rating among blacks. Prior to the downturn in the economy. So it's increased turnout among blacks versus a slightly higher percentage voting for Trump. A wash for Trump at best.
You can talk all you want about these minor impacts on election day. Even with a strong economy Trump seemed to be in trouble in the 5-7 states that really matter. If the economy is still in the toilet at the end of the 3rd quarter with few signs of recovery, his odds for reelection will be rather low in my opinon.