Participate in the poll or better yet give us a number. My number is 260,000. That's from assuming a 20% infection rate and 0.4% mortality rate of people infected:
327,000,000 people x 0.2 infection rate x .004 mortality rate = 260,000 deaths
You've got experts in epidemiology and public health predicting everything between 10,000 and 1.5 million deaths, so none of us nimrods is going to blow a hole in whatever estimate you throw out.
Originally Posted by Tiny
Your premise is flawed you assume that everyone will be exposed and that no one is resistant. As for 20%, we don't have Intel to know that. It is pure conjecture. As we go on it seems the fatally rate is decreasing as we get more information.
After everything is done you have to ask how many will die from normal flu and other underlying illnesses?
Originally Posted by the_real_Barleycorn
I'll be closer if the number is over.
It's gonna go from 15 down to zero, right? I hope Friendly Fred is right. And I hope you "revive" this at the right time.
Originally Posted by eccieuser9500
No. 2%. regardless of risk factors. so you agree the math makes that about 62-63k which is what i calculated based on Italy
so let's play Death guess. i say < 63k. anyone else?
Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid
We have one year and three quarters left until D day. Or V day? Anyway.
As per the NPR article, 100,000 in mere months. So by the last day of NEXT year, it's going to be closer to a quarter million people! Way passed your measly 63K. You want to stick with that? For 21 months?
If teeny Tiny allows me to revert back to my comical guess of over (The Price is Right rules, remember) 260K. Afterall, he wants to revise his guess. Whatcha say, Tiny? I'll go ahead and say . . .
260,001 + 1 + your 63K = 323,001
Closest without going over. The "Greatest Generation" (you bet your ass I put it quotes), and their older booming offspring, plus those variable deaths due to pre existing immuno defiencies will be dispassionately erased. Cataclysmic? This will be studied for generations.
Originally Posted by eccieuser9500
Gracias senor
Originally Posted by Tiny
so it's 323,001 to < 63k.
if you say so
Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid
X is going to be > than 323,001
Originally Posted by eccieuser9500
April 8, 2020 Update
Predicted Deaths from Covid-19 in the United States of America
University of Washington IHME Model: 60,415 (1)
The Waco Kid Italian Extrapolation: greater than 95,413 (2)
South Korean Extrapolation: greater than 1,280 (3)
(1) Assumes four types of social distancing occur throughout the United States. Deaths projected to August 4, 2020
(2) Covid-19 deaths to date in Italy increased by the ratio of the population of the USA (327.2 million) to Italy (60.5 million), or 5.4X
(3) Covid-19 deaths to date in South Korea increased by the ratio of the population of the USA (327.2 million) to South Korea (51.5 million), or 6.4X
Death Game Estimates, to 12/31/2021:
Jacuzzme: 41,806
Friendly Fred: 50,000
Dilbert Firestorm: 80,000
Dr. Anthony Fauci: 150,000 (4)
Dr. Deborah Birx: 172,000 (4)
Tiny: 260,000
eccieuser9500: 323,001
Dr. James Lawler: 480,000
adav8s28: 1,569,600
(4) average of high and low estimates
Dilbert is also predicting 90 million infected.
Looking better! The current IHME estimate of total deaths is down from previous estimates of 81,766 (April 5), 93,765 (March 31), 83,967 (approximately March 28), and 81,114 (March 24). New York deaths are expected to peak tomorrow. Hospital bed shortages (all beds or only ICU beds) are now anticipated only for New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Michigan, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, North Dakota, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin.
Originally Posted by Tiny
united states coronavirus stats
https://g.co/kgs/jP2CC5
I think the good doctor has it over me. Is Fauci a valued member?
Do we have to wait until the end of day? Can you do the math?
There can only be one winner Chiquito.
Eight hundred and twenty-two FUCKIN' THOUSAND!
