Economy close to tanking?

It’s great to see the big guns, Texas Contrarian and Lusty Lad, posting in the same thread about economic policy again. I read a little about the Cochrane / Krugman wars last night and it’s just like some of the threads about the economy in the eccie political forum! Except other than the two aforementioned individuals we’re not on the same level.

Stay out of trouble LL, it would be great to have you around for a while.

It’s great to see the big guns, Texas Contrarian and Lusty Lad, posting in the same thread about economic policy again. I read a little about the Cochrane / Krugman wars last night and it’s just like some of the threads about the economy in the eccie political forum! Except other than the two aforementioned individuals we’re not on the same level.

Stay out of trouble LL, it would be great to have you around for a while. Originally Posted by Tiny

Thanks, tiny. I'd love to stick around if the mods assent. You wouldn't believe some of the stuff I've been pointed for. Not a good look for me to complain, so I'll leave it at that.

I have been collecting my thoughts on our 2 famous threads, the ones you recently bumped. Hope to get a good discussion or two going once I post in them.

In my view, it's simply too early to tell, though I believe the risk of impending slowdown/recession with rising unemployment is significantly greater than the risk of a serious inflation resurgence. Originally Posted by Texas Contrarian

There's no slowdown apparent in the GDP data ... yet.

The BEA (US Bureau of Economic Analysis) put the Q2 growth of real GDP at 3.0% (annualized) and the Atlanta Fed's current GDPNow estimate of Q3 growth is 2.9%.

Does it seem odd to you that Kamala doesn't brag about, or even mention, any of this? I can't figure out whether it's because 1) she is an economic illiterate who doesn't understand what a good/bad GDP number looks like, 2) she doesn't have any decent economists on her campaign staff to explain it to her, or 3) as Larry Kudlow alleges, she is a far-left San Francisco socialist who has an aversion to the word "growth" when it comes to the US economy.

The reason I don't think inflation is that much of a risk going forward is that the spike of a couple of years ago was quite a bit different animal from the "Great Inflation" of the 1970s-early'80s... Originally Posted by Texas Contrarian

I agree - it's a completely different animal today compared with the inflation Jimmy Carter unleashed upon our economy back then. However, I'm not convinced yet that it has stabilized at or below the Fed's 2.0% target range.

Btw - the predictions you made here two years ago that inflation was peaking and would decline fairly rapidly look pretty spot-on in retrospect. Of course, it helps to avoid timelines when making such prognostications. I'm still chuckling at Janet Yellen's insistence that "inflation is transitory". How long is "transitory"? My erections are transitory. Come to think of it, didn't Keynes famously say "in the long run we're all transitory"? Or something like that.

More later.

I'm still chuckling at Janet Yellen's insistence that "inflation is transitory". How long is "transitory"? My erections are transitory. Come to think of it, didn't Keynes famously say "in the long run we're all transitory"? Or something like that.

More later. Originally Posted by lustylad

LOL!