Trump Re-elected! I'm calling it!

Business Insider says that today's new tariffs on Brazil and Argentina have nothing to do with currency devaluation as Trump claims.

It has everything to do with them selling agricultural goods to China and circumventing Trump's trade war.

Genius at work:

https://www.businessinsider.com/trum...-china-2019-12

So much for winning over American farmers again in 2020. They won't get fooled again.

You might as well start crying now. You snowflakes are gonna take a hit in 2020. Yeah baby, it's Trump 2020.

Gundlach, who nailed Trump's 2016 election, says he'll win again 'if economy holds' https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gundl...-sh&soc_trk=ma

It's all about the economy.

You might as well start crying now. You snowflakes are gonna take a hit in 2020. Yeah baby, it's Trump 2020.

Gundlach, who nailed Trump's 2016 election, says he'll win again 'if economy holds' https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gundl...-sh&soc_trk=ma

It's all about the economy. Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

The economy was fantastic in November 2018 and Republicans lost 40 House seats and 7 governorships. In November 2019 Democrats picked up both the Virginia state House and Senate, the Kentucky governor's race, and held the governor's seat in Louisiana. Kentucky and Louisiana are historically solid Republican states.

Keep a close eye on tariffs. New tariffs on China are in place for December 15th. Trump just imposed new tariffs on Brazil, Argentina, and France. And then he says "Trade wars are good, and easy to win." How long have China tariffs been hurting people in this country?

So with the economy so great how do you explain away the Republican losses at the polls in 2018 and 2019? What factors made Democrats so victorious?

I read an interesting article about how people voted Democrat in the mid terms but will vote Trump in the 2020 election. They said they wanted to keep the power in balance. I thought that was interesting. Also, Trump himself was not on those ballots. I understand that he endorsed some of those folks that lost, I don't think his endorsement swayed many voters when it came to the midterms.


They Voted Democratic. Now They Support Trump. https://news.yahoo.com/voted-democra...wer&soc_trk=ma

The economy was fantastic in November 2018 and Republicans lost 40 House seats and 7 governorships. In November 2019 Democrats picked up both the Virginia state House and Senate, the Kentucky governor's race, and held the governor's seat in Louisiana. Kentucky and Louisiana are historically solid Republican states.

Keep a close eye on tariffs. New tariffs on China are in place for December 15th. Trump just imposed new tariffs on Brazil, Argentina, and France. And then he says "Trade wars are good, and easy to win." How long have China tariffs been hurting people in this country?

So with the economy so great how do you explain away the Republican losses at the polls in 2018 and 2019? What factors made Democrats so victorious? Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

I read an interesting article about how people voted Democrat in the mid terms but will vote Trump in the 2020 election. They said they wanted to keep the power in balance. I thought that was interesting. Also, Trump himself was not on those ballots. I understand that he endorsed some of those folks that lost, I don't think his endorsement swayed many voters when it came to the midterms.


They Voted Democratic. Now They Support Trump. https://news.yahoo.com/voted-democra...wer&soc_trk=ma Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

At this point in time it is a 100% guessing game as to what will happen in November 2020. The economy is losing steam.. GDP is down. Manufacturing is down. October job growth was weak. Durable goods orders fell in September. Companies are not investing their money in expansion until the tariff war is resolved. Wage growth is slowing. The personal gains from the tax reform are wearing off.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjo.../#535027a42394

The point is that the economy of 2019 is not as strong as the economy of 2018. The only positive that Trump can point to right now is the stock market. Most other economic indicators are down. I'd assume that Democrats will make a huge point of this if the economy is still stagnating next year. And point out the huge deficit that the tax reform package created.

"The only socialistic policy I see being pushed by those on the "far left" (Sanders or Warren) is Medicare For All. IF it was financially feasible I would support it 100%. No one is close to pushing for government takeover of private business which is REAL socialism. This is simply fear-mongering by Trump and his supporters."

I think you and I are probably on much the same side, but Far-left? "Medicare For All" which is just the current US name for universal healthcare insurance? Really?

Can't afford it? You mean like every other advanced industrial nation on earth and supported by Presidents going back to Roosevelt, Truman and that "far-left" guy, Nixon? See his prescription - https://khn.org/news/nixon-proposal/

Now that said, I prefer "Medicare for all (who want it)" but strongly believe that we need universal healthcare insurance of some sort at some level to maintain and economic edge. Sick and unhealthy people just cannot work productively or start new businesses. T
those who retire because of poor health or die just cannot work at all degrading our workforce. I don't believe in just legislating private health insurance out of existence and think that competition in some areas of healthcare is probably good and healthy. I think a phased transition and private insurance for elective, cosmetic and cutting edge medicine is probably a good idea.

The thought that we can't afford universal healthcare or healthcare insurance/single payer is just dumb and that is a polite way to say it. We spend $7300 per capita for healthcare that is overall substandard compared to $5300 for all other OECD countries on average where some have vastly better overall healthcare. Also, we spend 17.2 percent of GDP, compared to just 8.9 percent for the OECD median so saying we can't afford it makes absolutely no sense.

LB

Goodness Speed, you sound all gloom and doom there. I can't find the article but I read that 84 percent ( not sure if that is the exact number but it was high) of small business owners approve of the job Trump is doing. Most of them are doing great which supports more hiring so I think those numbers will improve. Another positive indicator is the housing market. It's very,very good - all over. The turnaround now is 3 months verses an average economy turnaround of 6 months. The house I purchased in San Antonio was only on the market for 54 days. That's good stuff.

The guessing game that I'm interested in is who will be the Democratic candidate. Because I already know who is going to be President. Heehee

Question - What do you think of Bloomberg?

At this point in time it is a 100% guessing game as to what will happen in November 2020. The economy is losing steam.. GDP is down. Manufacturing is down. October job growth was weak. Durable goods orders fell in September. Companies are not investing their money in expansion until the tariff war is resolved. Wage growth is slowing. The personal gains from the tax reform are wearing off.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjo.../#535027a42394

The point is that the economy of 2019 is not as strong as the economy of 2018. The only positive that Trump can point to right now is the stock market. Most other economic indicators are down. I'd assume that Democrats will make a huge point of this if the economy is still stagnating next year. And point out the huge deficit that the tax reform package created. Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Goodness Speed, you sound all gloom and doom there. I can't find the article but I read that 84 percent ( not sure if that is the exact number but it was high) of small business owners approve of the job Trump is doing. Most of them are doing great which supports more hiring so I think those numbers will improve. Another positive indicator is the housing market. It's very,very good - all over. The turnaround now is 3 months verses an average economy turnaround of 6 months. The house I purchased in San Antonio was only on the market for 54 days. That's good stuff.

The guessing game that I'm interested in is who will be the Democratic candidate. Because I already know who is going to be President. Heehee

Question - What do you think of Bloomberg? Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

I have never said Trump is not doing well on the economy. I am saying the robust economy we saw in 2018 is not there in 2019 and is predicted to be less so in 2020. About 54% of those polled believe the economy is doing well under Trump. Not as high as one would probably expect.

Regarding your statement on small business owners. Not quite true. The 84% were ALL entrepreneurs, large and small, with the small getting less than the large and corporations which I've been saying all along. The tax reform package was very good to corporations and the rich, not so much to others.


Many U.S. entrepreneurs believe that the Trump administration and Congress are doing more for large corporations than they are for small business owners, according to a new national survey of 1,225 entrepreneurs from the Kauffman Foundation, conducted by Global Strategy Group and Public Opinion Strategies. That could be a bad sign for the Republican party’s prospects in 2020.

Per the survey, 84% of the entrepreneurs say President Donald Trump has done a good job for large businesses and corporations. However, the majority also feel that the administration and U.S. Congress are doing more for mega corporations than for businesses like theirs.

Regarding the housing market, it's unfair to look at the market in Texas and assume it is great in the rest of the country. Texas population continues to grow and the housing market is positively impacted by that growth and will continue to be. Overall the housing market has been trending down in 2018 and 2019. Not majorly down though. Still strong.

https://www.google.com/search?sa=X&s...YTHvdCgpv5ZZM:

I'm not sure about Bloomberg at this point in time. I like that he is a moderate Democrat. I like his TV ads. I think he sees an opportunity in that most Democrats want a moderate to be their candidate and are unsure about Biden right now.

"The only socialistic policy I see being pushed by those on the "far left" (Sanders or Warren) is Medicare For All. IF it was financially feasible I would support it 100%. No one is close to pushing for government takeover of private business which is REAL socialism. This is simply fear-mongering by Trump and his supporters."

I think you and I are probably on much the same side, but Far-left? "Medicare For All" which is just the current US name for universal healthcare insurance? Really?

Can't afford it? You mean like every other advanced industrial nation on earth and supported by Presidents going back to Roosevelt, Truman and that "far-left" guy, Nixon? See his prescription - https://khn.org/news/nixon-proposal/

Now that said, I prefer "Medicare for all (who want it)" but strongly believe that we need universal healthcare insurance of some sort at some level to maintain and economic edge. Sick and unhealthy people just cannot work productively or start new businesses. T
those who retire because of poor health or die just cannot work at all degrading our workforce. I don't believe in just legislating private health insurance out of existence and think that competition in some areas of healthcare is probably good and healthy. I think a phased transition and private insurance for elective, cosmetic and cutting edge medicine is probably a good idea.

The thought that we can't afford universal healthcare or healthcare insurance/single payer is just dumb and that is a polite way to say it. We spend $7300 per capita for healthcare that is overall substandard compared to $5300 for all other OECD countries on average where some have vastly better overall healthcare. Also, we spend 17.2 percent of GDP, compared to just 8.9 percent for the OECD median so saying we can't afford it makes absolutely no sense.

LB Originally Posted by LordBeaverbrook

Excellent points. I traveled to several countries recently that are considered Democratic Socialist countries. People pay higher taxes than we do in the U.S. but receive what I would call great benefits for those higher taxes -- free medical care, great retirement benefits, great benefits while working.

The "problem" in the U.S. is that we praise the almighty dollar. "Don't try to take any of my money away" is our mantra. Great for those on the high end of the income spectrum, not so great for those on the low end. "Socialism" is a 4-letter word to many. Then we have others who abhor government involvement in our private lives.

I like Medicare For All but allow those who want to keep their private insurance the ability to do so.

Excellent points. I traveled to several countries recently that are considered Democratic Socialist countries. People pay higher taxes than we do in the U.S. but receive what I would call great benefits for those higher taxes -- free medical care, great retirement benefits, great benefits while working.

The "problem" in the U.S. is that we praise the almighty dollar. "Don't try to take any of my money away" is our mantra. Great for those on the high end of the income spectrum, not so great for those on the low end. "Socialism" is a 4-letter word to many. Then we have others who abhor government involvement in our private lives.

I like Medicare For All but allow those who want to keep their private insurance the ability to do so. Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

So what’s wrong with Medicare for all? I’m all in for that but I believe we should let the ins cos compete for the business. I have no problem with a two tier system but the Repugnant party want everyone to either pay cash or die. Every country in the industrial west has universal healthcare. It just makes sense but the far Reich mob want nothing to do with it. Medicare is a great system here and so is Soc Sec. you can thank the Dems for that

Sorry but you're dead wrong. The President doesn't have the right to label any American citizen he wants as an "enemy combatant" and then kill him. He can only do that with non American citizens or non resident aliens.

Obama killed scores of innocent people falsely claiming that they were "enemy combatants" because John Brennan, who is a sociopath, told him to do it. But except for one American citizen all those people were foreigners. Originally Posted by pussycat

The only guy that came up with that label “enemy combatant”
Was George Bush and the Repugrat party at the time of the Iraq war. You are nothing but a spineless lying coward to blame Obama or Brennan in anything relating to war crimes committed by Bush and his phony And illegal
War in Iraq. Him and his buddy the Dick Cheney were instrumental in torture and jailing folks without trial. But of course you fuckers can’t see how corrupt and criminal the Repugnant party have positioned themselves since then. You could be twice as smart and even then you’d be stupid. Trump followers have shit for brains. Thanks to Trump university and that lying Conman

Goodness Speed, you sound all gloom and doom there. I can't find the article but I read that 84 percent ( not sure if that is the exact number but it was high) of small business owners approve of the job Trump is doing. Most of them are doing great which supports more hiring so I think those numbers will improve. Another positive indicator is the housing market. It's very,very good - all over. The turnaround now is 3 months verses an average economy turnaround of 6 months. The house I purchased in San Antonio was only on the market for 54 days. That's good stuff.

The guessing game that I'm interested in is who will be the Democratic candidate. Because I already know who is going to be President. Heehee

Question - What do you think of Bloomberg? Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

Hey girl so glad your digging San Antonio. #Trump2020

Looks like Trump's approval among business owners is at an all-time high of 60%. Only 24% expect for trade to improve business for them.

Maybe Ellen subconsciously added those two numbers in her head to get 84%, or more likely it was just a misfire. We all have those from time to time. It's an interesting question to bring up at any rate.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/02/trum...time-high.html

"93 percent of Republican small business owners approve of Trump’s job performance versus 37 percent of Independents and 14 percent of Democrats." So it appears that small business owners who are Republicans account for a lot of those approval numbers.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/trumps...s_3162563.html

I thought it was interesting that Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to think that impeachment will be bad for business. They must be feeling more vulnerable about it for some reason.

I have mixed emotions about impeachment, but historically, if ever there was a time to impeach, this is it.

Will he get away with it scot-free? Most likely, but the proof will be in the 2020 election and the aftermath. If the Dems win the election, he won't be able to hide behind the presidency, and he will be subject to indictment and conviction for his alleged crimes.

That can't be good for business, at least if your business is in gaming the system.

At this point in time it is a 100% guessing game as to what will happen in November 2020. The economy is losing steam.. GDP is down. Manufacturing is down. October job growth was weak. Durable goods orders fell in September. Companies are not investing their money in expansion until the tariff war is resolved. Wage growth is slowing. The personal gains from the tax reform are wearing off.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjo.../#535027a42394

The point is that the economy of 2019 is not as strong as the economy of 2018. The only positive that Trump can point to right now is the stock market. Most other economic indicators are down. I'd assume that Democrats will make a huge point of this if the economy is still stagnating next year. And point out the huge deficit that the tax reform package created. Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

There will be no recession until after the election, but then watch out.

The Fed and Wall Street wanna see Trump re-elected, even though they supported Hilary in 2016.

When the recession happens it's not going to be a "soft landing." The markets will crash, 401k's will tank, and unemployment will soar.

The Dems could take back the Senate in 2022, and then try to impeach again and this time make it work.

We've already used up all stimulus remedies of deficits and money supply/interest rates to keep things going long enough to get Trump re-elected. So when the recession happens in 2021 there will be no remedies left and the recession will continue indefinitely.

There will be no recession until after the election, but then watch out.

The Fed and Wall Street wanna see Trump re-elected, even though they supported Hilary in 2016.

When the recession happens it's not going to be a "soft landing." The markets will crash, 401k's will tank, and unemployment will soar.

The Dems could take back the Senate in 2022, and then try to impeach again and this time make it work.

We've already used up all stimulus remedies of deficits and money supply/interest rates to keep things going long enough to get Trump re-elected. So when the recession happens in 2021 there will be no remedies left and the recession will continue indefinitely.e.

Originally Posted by pussycat

I sincerely doubt that Wall Street wanted Hillary elected in 2016. As soon as Trump was elected in 2016 the stock market soared because big business knew Trump would push for lowering corporate tax rates. Of course Wall Street wants Trump reelected.

The only thing I see that would send us into a recession in this country is if the China tariffs continue. I think there will be some type of accord reached which will be trumpeted by Trump as a major win but will not be. Much like the USMCA.

If people in this country realize the negative impact the tariffs are having on their wallets, Trump is in trouble.

There is no way Trump will ever be convicted by the Senate unless his "crimes" are over the top. Senate needs 67 votes to convict and that won't happen.