November 5, 2019 Elections

While you remain one of the more rational posters in polling/etc in this forum, It's funny how you fail to mention that Obama at nearly the same time in his term(early Nov 2011) as Trump is now was also fairly significantly underwater in approval ratings. You mention Obama in Nov 2012 somehow in comparison to Trump in the year equivalently earlier. Not the apples to apples comparison by any means. Originally Posted by eccielover

Actually, in recent weeks Obama has moved from a virtual tie with Trump in approval ratings at a specific time in office to a current 3.8% lead at 45.2% for Obama to 41.4% for Trump.

It was about this point in time in 2011 that Obama's approval rating started an upward trend. By election day 2012 his approval rating went from negative to positive. He was either over 50% or he was under 50% and his positive approval was greater than his negative approval, depending on the poll

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

Can Trump pull up his negative approval rating? To some degree that is highly possible but doubtful that it will become positive. It hasn't been positive since he took office, mired at best in the mid-40s.

And even if Trump remains negative, that does not mean he will lose the election by any stretch of the imagination. He surprised in 2016 and could certainly be the first POTUS seeking reelection to win with a negative approval rating.

Landslide election for POTUS:

Electoral College

Of course, the United States does not elect its presidents by popular vote. It instead uses the Electoral College system. There are 538 electoral votes up for grabs in a presidential race, so how many would a candidate have to win to achieve a landslide?

Again, there is no legal or constitutional definition of a landslide in a presidential election. But political journalists have offered their own suggested guidelines for determining a landslide victory over the years. One generally agreed upon definition of an Electoral College landslide is a presidential election in which the winning candidate secures at least 375 or 70 percent of the electoral votes.

https://www.thoughtco.com/definition...ection-3367585

So with that widely accepted definition of a "landslide" in the Electoral College, which additional states do you see Trump winning in 2020 that he lost in 2016. You seem to be unwilling, or unable, to answer that very simple question. Ellen answered it. Bambino answered it. JD Barleycorn answered it. Probably others I'm failing to mention answered it too.

BTW. I support less spending in government. Never said otherwise at any time. You claim I have said otherwise in my posts. I challenge you to support that statement. Smaller government? I don't know what that is. Less government jobs? Less government agencies? I do believe that there are some government run agencies that are better off at the Federal level than at the state level -- Social Security, Medicare, TSA, ICE, FBI.

I have made a handful of predictions on the 2020 elections. Trump will lose the popular vote by a larger margin than he did in 2016 and he will win less electoral votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. Wager? Sorry, I don't wager with people I do not know on a hooker board. Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Please tell me one Gumment agency that operates efficiently...and how many of them waste tons of money.
You refuse to admit the facts that SS and Medicare are going bankrupt.

Most of the informed voters across this country now have a sense of what would happen if one of you top socialist were to become president and they don't care for MORE Gumment control of their lives. They have Jobs and more money in their pockets...they don't want to have the shock of their lives when they find out that they will be paying a lot for Gumment control healthcare.
You seem to forget MOST people don't want bigger more bloated Gumment and as I said MANY on the left are terrified that the front runner is a full tilt socialist about as left as possible.

How in the hell do you think all this Gumment control and giveaways is going to be paid for. They could confiscate ALL of the billionaires monies and still not pay for it.

Nice that you failed to respond to my question to you about your sacred house and how they are coming off as a bunch of desperate TDS partisans. TDS is all consuming...you can't comprehend that.

You stated about optimism...what the left has presented in terms of that is anything but. You and the rest of the left will experience a rude awakening in November 2020.

With the higher taxes and more Gumment controll that the dims are running on will seal another four year for Trump. Just look at his war chest and crowds he generates...nothing like that on your side.

Please name for me ONE president in history the has been as vilified and pilloried as much as Trump and still pull in records crowds and campaign monies.
P.S. Self awareness is your friend!!

Actually, in recent weeks Obama has moved from a virtual tie with Trump in approval ratings at a specific time in office to a current 3.8% lead at 45.2% for Obama to 41.4% for Trump.

It was about this point in time in 2011 that Obama's approval rating started an upward trend. By election day 2012 his approval rating went from negative to positive. He was either over 50% or he was under 50% and his positive approval was greater than his negative approval, depending on the poll

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

Can Trump pull up his negative approval rating? To some degree that is highly possible but doubtful that it will become positive. It hasn't been positive since he took office, mired at best in the mid-40s.

And even if Trump remains negative, that does not mean he will lose the election by any stretch of the imagination. He surprised in 2016 and could certainly be the first POTUS seeking reelection to win with a negative approval rating. Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

I would agree on much of that.

I just wanted to point out to you, your own oversight in making apples to apples statements and ignoring Obama's below water numbers in 2011. I do the same thing unfortunately in pointing to good news from my perspective and ignoring some apples to apples numbers sometimes. It's natural, but it also leads to the partisan accusations that we often get.

Please tell me one Gumment agency that operates efficiently...and how many of them waste tons of money.
You refuse to admit the facts that SS and Medicare are going bankrupt.

Most of the informed voters across this country now have a sense of what would happen if one of you top socialist were to become president and they don't care for MORE Gumment control of their lives. They have Jobs and more money in their pockets...they don't want to have the shock of their lives when they find out that they will be paying a lot for Gumment control healthcare.
You seem to forget MOST people don't want bigger more bloated Gumment and as I said MANY on the left are terrified that the front runner is a full tilt socialist about as left as possible.

How in the hell do you think all this Gumment control and giveaways is going to be paid for. They could confiscate ALL of the billionaires monies and still not pay for it.

Nice that you failed to respond to my question to you about your sacred house and how they are coming off as a bunch of desperate TDS partisans. TDS is all consuming...you can't comprehend that.

You stated about optimism...what the left has presented in terms of that is anything but. You and the rest of the left will experience a rude awakening in November 2020.

With the higher taxes and more Gumment controll that the dims are running on will seal another four year for Trump. Just look at his war chest and crowds he generates...nothing like that on your side.

Please name for me ONE president in history the has been as vilified and pilloried as much as Trump and still pull in records crowds and campaign monies.
P.S. Self awareness is your friend!! Originally Posted by bb1961

Why do you refuse to answer my simple question? You have predicted a Trump landslide in 2020. What states that he lost in 2016 do you predict he will win in 2020?

I figured out your problem. You can't discuss politics on a micro level. I doubt you even know what states are considered in play in 2020, which ones are solid red and which ones are solid blue.

I point out agencies that are better off at the Federal level than at lower levels and your response is that they are run inefficiently. Give me details.

You talk about the Democrats turning the country towards socialism yet when I ask you for details. you've got nothing other than Medicare For All. Please learn what socialism really means.

You say Democrats want more government control yet provide no details at all as to exactly what that means.

Several times I've told you how Medicare will sustain itself in the future -- increased payments and a possible decrease in services provided. Still a bargain compared to the options. You either have a short memory or just don't accept answers that don't fit your opinion. Social Security may decrease monthly payments or raise the age for qualifying.

So keep on complaining at the political macro level and let others on this forum discuss issues at the micro level.

I would agree on much of that.

I just wanted to point out to you, your own oversight in making apples to apples statements and ignoring Obama's below water numbers in 2011. I do the same thing unfortunately in pointing to good news from my perspective and ignoring some apples to apples numbers sometimes. It's natural, but it also leads to the partisan accusations that we often get. Originally Posted by eccielover

I did not intentionally ignore the fact that Trump and Obama had equal approval ratings at equal times in office over their first 34 months in office. Sorry if it seemed that way. That fact was pointed out at various times by a few Trump supporters on the forum and I saw little reason to post my agreement with their statements. It was fact and I didn't think it needed a response.

I try to be fair. For example, I stated I believed the Times/Sienna College poll, which showed a very close race in battleground states, over the polls by Quinnipiac and FOX News which showed Democratic contenders far ahead of Trump in those states. I pointed out Trump is the betting favorite.

Trump supporters got their asses beat in their own back yard yet again. That is now 10 Governor seats won by the Dems since Asshole took office. In a state where the Repugnican's said that "the Democratic party is now dead in this state." Well thanks to Trump looks like they're resurrected.

BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!! !

Trump supporters got their asses beat in their own back yard yet again. That is now 10 Governor seats won by the Dems since Asshole took office. In a state where the Repugnican's said that "the Democratic party is now dead in this state." Well thanks to Trump looks like they're resurrected.

BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!! ! Originally Posted by Little Monster

if you say so.

Canucks and Limeys seem to be having fun criticizing the US.

while they have so little to puff their chests about!
LOL

Another soft post from Captain America!

Yous certainly don’t need our help making fools of yourself and the United States of Confusion. you’re doing quite well on your own.

Keener couldn’t make a living in Canada, eh? Or were you dodging the law in the States?

Another soft post from Captain America!

Yous certainly don’t need our help making fools of yourself and the United States of Confusion. you’re doing quite well on your own.

Keener couldn’t make a living in Canada, eh? Or were you dodging the law in the States? Originally Posted by HoeHummer

thank you Mamboolah/Yssup Rider self-outed poster!

Why do you refuse to answer my simple question? You have predicted a Trump landslide in 2020. What states that he lost in 2016 do you predict he will win in 2020?

I figured out your problem. You can't discuss politics on a micro level. I doubt you even know what states are considered in play in 2020, which ones are solid red and which ones are solid blue.

I point out agencies that are better off at the Federal level than at lower levels and your response is that they are run inefficiently. Give me details.

You talk about the Democrats turning the country towards socialism yet when I ask you for details. you've got nothing other than Medicare For All. Please learn what socialism really means.

You say Democrats want more government control yet provide no details at all as to exactly what that means.

Several times I've told you how Medicare will sustain itself in the future -- increased payments and a possible decrease in services provided. Still a bargain compared to the options. You either have a short memory or just don't accept answers that don't fit your opinion. Social Security may decrease monthly payments or raise the age for qualifying.

So keep on complaining at the political macro level and let others on this forum discuss issues at the micro level. Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

So the healthcare-for-all with the elimination of private insurance isn"t socialism WTF is!!
50+ TRILLION in new spending isn't BIGGER Gumment then WTF is??
Again your lack of self awareness with an over ridding case of TDS doesn't have you utilizing rational thinking.

The leftwing internal coup report comming out the end of this month should be interesting being coupled with this house circus that is falling apart every day will have you spinning more of your nonsense.

You seem to think that the vast majority of the voters in this country want this full tilt leftwing radical ideology.
In 2016 Hellery didn't campaign with this radical ideology and if she had of she would have lost a lot more votes.

As much as you quote polls and elections you conveniently leave out that the majority of the voters DO NOT WANT Medicare for all and Bernie and poker preach that EVERY DAY...the two front runner.

It has been a while since you explained away the huge crowds Trump has drawn and the MASSIVE war chest...I'm sure you can tell us that it has no bearing on the pulse of the country. Things don't look good for you SPEED.

I told you that he will win by a LARGER margin than in 2016 and challenged you to a wager and your come back..."I don't wager people on a hooker board". I admire your confidence...a lot of talk but no action. You're not as slick as you perceive yourself.

Like I told you come election 2020 that will be the put up or shut up for you and your buddy's on the left...if only we could be so lucky.

So the healthcare-for-all with the elimination of private insurance isn"t socialism WTF is!!
50+ TRILLION in new spending isn't BIGGER Gumment then WTF is??
Again your lack of self awareness with an over ridding case of TDS doesn't have you utilizing rational thinking.

The leftwing internal coup report comming out the end of this month should be interesting being coupled with this house circus that is falling apart every day will have you spinning more of your nonsense.

You seem to think that the vast majority of the voters in this country want this full tilt leftwing radical ideology.
In 2016 Hellery didn't campaign with this radical ideology and if she had of she would have lost a lot more votes.

As much as you quote polls and elections you conveniently leave out that the majority of the voters DO NOT WANT Medicare for all and Bernie and poker preach that EVERY DAY...the two front runner.

It has been a while since you explained away the huge crowds Trump has drawn and the MASSIVE war chest...I'm sure you can tell us that it has no bearing on the pulse of the country. Things don't look good for you SPEED.

I told you that he will win by a LARGER margin than in 2016 and challenged you to a wager and your come back..."I don't wager people on a hooker board". I admire your confidence...a lot of talk but no action. You're not as slick as you perceive yourself.

Like I told you come election 2020 that will be the put up or shut up for you and your buddy's on the left...if only we could be so lucky. Originally Posted by bb1961

If you took the time to read my previous post I mentioned Medicare For All, in the form being proposed by Warren and Sanders as being socialism. That is a very small component of what makes a country like Venezuela socialistic. Take the time to truly understand what true socialism is and what candidates like Warren are proposing. When a candidate starts talking about taking control of businesses, then you have a case. Otherwise you are like Chicken Little running around and chanting "The sky is falling".

It does not matter which candidate ends up being the Democratic nominee for POTUS. That person will receive more popular votes than Trump. Obviously my opinion, an opinion to which we will not have the answer for almost another year.

I agree with you on one subject -- the majority of the people do not want Medicare For All if it can't be proven that it will not cost this country many of trillions of dollars. I don't. But the fact is that Healtcare is the number 1 issue on the minds of voters and the Democratic contenders are at least addressing the issue. Republicans have offered nothing. It hurt them in the 2018 midterms and could hurt again in 2020. You tend to ignore ALL the issues on the minds of voters other than Medicare For All.

BTW, polls do not show Sanders and Warren ahead among Democratic contenders. Most recent polling has Biden ahead in the battleground states of NC, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona. Warren leads in only Wisconsin.

I don't have to explain away the crowds that Trump draws and the money lead he currently has. Clinton had much more money than Trump in 2016 and lost. Trump drew a huge crowd to the Kentucky rally last week and his candidate lost. There is no proven correlation between crowd sizes at rallies and who wins an election. People will believe what they want to believe.

Sorry, I don't bet people who are totally unknown to me other than on a hooker board.

And you still choose not to answer my simple question:

"You have predicted a Trump landslide in 2020. What states that he lost in 2016 do you predict he will win in 2020?"

You have changed your statement to "a larger margin" instead of "a landslide". So which state or states will Trump win in 2020 that he lost in 2016? I have predicted Trump to win less electoral votes in 2020 and I have said Michigan will turn blue and the states that were blue in 2016 will remain blue.

Second your comment on Medicare for All - Warren's plan is unworkable - and would plummet this country into an economic abyss. Which might be what she wants as a pretext for imposing One Party Rule by the DPST's.

The republicans are right to oppose this idea, but derelict in duty to propose a reasonable alternative- that is cost-effective and includes current private plans, and provides for those unable to pay for private insurance.

I am dismayed at the Republican dereliction of duty, and loss of a great opportunity to take the high ground ove the DPST's and their Marxist plans.

Second your comment on Medicare for All - Warren's plan is unworkable - and would plummet this country into an economic abyss. Which might be what she wants as a pretext for imposing One Party Rule by the DPST's.

The republicans are right to oppose this idea, but derelict in duty to propose a reasonable alternative- that is cost-effective and includes current private plans, and provides for those unable to pay for private insurance.

I am dismayed at the Republican dereliction of duty, and loss of a great opportunity to take the high ground over the DPST's and their Marxist plans. Originally Posted by oeb11

I wouldn't exactly call Medicare for All "Marxist plans". Sanders and Warren, although further to the left than I would prefer, are hardly Marxists.

Other than that, good post. Republicans will take aim at Medicare for All from now until the election.