It means to me that the 2020 election will be close, closer than the 2016 election in my opinion. What is significant to me at the current time is Trump is sliding backwards if the polls are to be believed. His approval rating is negative, which is not suprising, but is falling. Trump had leads in several states like Florida and NC and Arizona but is trailing in the latest polls.
The one thing we agree on is that with so much time left before the election, a lot can change and polls in October are a lot more significant than polls in June.
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Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX
Trump is not ahead in Florida, NC or AZ. Here are Real Clear Politics averages of the last few polls, followed by result of the most recent poll, for those and some other battleground states.
Florida: Biden +3.4% / Biden +3%
North Carolina: Trump +0.3% / Biden +4%
Arizona: Biden +3.4% / Biden +4%
Ohio: Biden +1% / Biden +2%
Pennsylvania: Biden +3.3%/Trump +4%
Wisconsin: Biden +3.4% / Biden +9%
Michigan: Biden +7.3% / Biden +12%
The bettors on Predictit.org who are wagering money on this are now giving the electoral college to Biden, 334 to 204, based on a state-by-state count. If your $0.55 bet for Biden pays off you get back $1.00 if he wins. If you bet $0.46 on Trump you get $1.00.
I don't think it's going to be close. Unfortunately I think it's going to be a blowout. The reason I say "unfortunately" is because a blowout would mean the Democrats would also win the Senate.
Biden is a good man. In terms of personal character he's head and shoulders above Trump. However, he has moved far to the left over the last year, and is working hand-in-hand with the Sanders wing in his party. Schumer appears to indicate he's going to end the filibuster if he takes power. The Democrats will hold onto the House. The country may be about to go farther left than it's been in many years. I believe this will have negative repercussions for the economy in general, and for the energy industry specifically, which is a big part of the economy here in Texas.
