...Read some of of Bjorn Lomborg's work on this...
Originally Posted by Tiny
I have seen some of his opinion pieces in the WSJ and believe he has made many excellent points.
For those not familiar with his work, please note that he is most assuredly not a "climate denier." In fact, he has made clear that he thinks human-induced climate change is occurring, though it's hardly the impending calamity claimed by alarmists.
He has said that even if we spend
tens of trillions of dollars on expensive green energy solutions over the next few decades, we will only affect the earth's average temperature by a fraction of a degree -- and that that's according to the UN's own climate models!
Lomborg has also noted that a wealthier world will be much better able to protect the health and lives of populations that may in the future be affected by warming; and that conversely, a world made poorer by humongous wasteful "green energy solutions" will be less capable of doing so, and thus the global human condition will deteriorate.
An inconvenient truth for some of the dreamers is that if we wish to enjoy a wealthier world over the near-to-intermediate term, we're going to be relying heavily on fossil fuel-derived energy.
Lomborg has also said that we will eventually
innovate our way to a cleaner-energy world, not subsidize our way to it.
One concern I have with subsidies, as can be the case with various forms of action falling under the rubric of "industrial policy," is the risk that they may end up perversely stifling battery technology advances and other innovation, rather than encouraging it.
That's because EV makers might just enjoy becoming fat and happy off of mandates and subsidies, while remaining relatively unincentivized to invest sufficiently in engineering innovations.
On the other hand, we will be far better off as a nation if electric cars become "a big fucking deal" because it makes good practical sense for families to own them, rather than under circumstances where they are mandated to do so by phased-in prohibitions of ICE vehicles, or paid to buy an EV by way of large federal tax credits or other expensive direct means.
The only way we're going to get there is with battery innovations allowing at least a near-doubling of the current maximum range along with a substantial decline in the cost of the battery packs.
And the only way that's going to come to fruition anytime soon is that if there are powerful incentives for EV makers to develop such new technologies rather than just getting fat off subsidies they can milk to a fare-thee-well just by maintaining the status quo.