The Trump Economy

That's a good plan, there will be other consequences of that though. Most of the illegals get paid waaaay below minimum wage, with no FICA/FUTA/SUTA costs to the employer. So the costs would go up 300% overnight. I'm not sure how that would play out in the market, but I would back that plan all day. If they're here, working, housed, etc, get them a "Guest Visa" to sort things out. If they're here, not working, on assistance, off you go back to your home country. Originally Posted by sand247
... Too right, mate... This is also our Australian point of view.
Rather a shame some o' the liberals don't seem to agree.
Here in President Trump's Economy.

#### Salty
  • Tiny
  • Today, 08:47 AM
That's a good plan, there will be other consequences of that though. Most of the illegals get paid waaaay below minimum wage, with no FICA/FUTA/SUTA costs to the employer. So the costs would go up 300% overnight. I'm not sure how that would play out in the market, but I would back that plan all day. If they're here, working, housed, etc, get them a "Guest Visa" to sort things out. If they're here, not working, on assistance, off you go back to your home country. Originally Posted by sand247
Ditto Salty. That makes good sense Sand, the bold text. Would the guest workers would be able to collect social security some day when they're back in their home countries, or would they end up paying a lot more into the entitlement programs than they'd take out? Probably that would be something for the president and Congress to decide.
... See? ... Sand and me-self do understand these concepts.

And so does President Trump - which is WHY they had many
illegals self-deport... For them to join the ranks of
guest workers - to have a chance to come back in on Work-Visa.

#### Salty
Why_Yes_I_Do's Avatar
We'll just send all those able bodied Medicare recipients to farms etc. to fulfill their work requirements. Originally Posted by RX792P
I do not recall an able-body clause for collecting on Medicare. I do recall most workers contribute to it their entire working life and it's not a voluntary contribution either.
  • Tiny
  • Today, 09:11 AM
Any farmers care to weigh in about this latest news and the beauty of tariffs in your sector?

Looks like some people at the US Department of Agriculture are about to lose their jobs for providing this false data!

It may be wise to bring back some of those evil illegals for some much needed Ag help.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-fa...194004993.html

Agricultural exports lagged imports by $4.97 billion in July, a gap 9% wider than a year earlier and the largest on record for the month. That pushed the sector’s deficit to an unprecedented $33.6 billion for the first seven months of the year, according to data released Monday by the US Department of Agriculture.

The widening farm trade gap this year has been mostly driven by a jump in imports, just as Trump slapped tariffs on other countries in a push to shrink the overall deficit. That further cements a shift that has been building since the president’s first term, with a sector that has long run major trade surpluses becoming a consistent net importer.
Originally Posted by Lucas McCain
I can only speak to cattle personally, and prices are around all time highs, twice what they were before COVID. Looking at the charts, wheat and corn are down since Trump took office, but not a lot, and soybeans are flat.

One of the main reasons why the effect of the tariffs hasn't been as bad as many, including me, thought they would is because foreigners mostly aren't retaliating, like they did when the Smoot Hawley bill was passed in the 1930's. The only ones that really have are China and Brazil. Mexico, Canada, the EU and Colombia threatened to impose retaliatory tariffs, but either never did, or did and then dropped them. Canada still has some in effect, but I don't think they're for agricultural products.

China is the third largest importer of U.S. agricultural products, behind Mexico and Canada, so if things stay like they are now, the American farmer shouldn't get hit too badly.

Please note Trump really went off the charts dumb ass when he imposed 127.2% tariffs on China, which can shut off our supply of rare earth elements and magnets which would cripple our defense and other industries. And when he imposed 50% tariffs on Brazil. The USA has a sizeable trade surplus in goods and services with Brazil.

With the exception of China and Brazil, the foreigners figured if the dumb asses in America were going to shoot themselves in the foot, then, by golly, there's no reason for us to follow in their footsteps. And thank goodness that's what they decided. We don't want another Great Depression on our hands. OK, maybe I'm being a tad dramatic. But U.S. and foreign tariffs and the consequent fall off in trade in the early 1930's did contribute greatly to economic woes.
I do not recall an able-body clause for collecting on Medicare. I do recall most workers contribute to it their entire working life and it's not a voluntary contribution either. Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

The big problem is the people get Medicare, which is part of Social Security and retirement health insurance confused with MEDICAID which is low income insurance help. People on Medicare can also quality for Medicaid.
Why_Yes_I_Do's Avatar
...China is the third largest importer of U.S. agricultural products, behind Mexico and Canada, so if things stay like they are now, the American farmer shouldn't get hit too badly.

Please note Trump really went off the charts dumb ass when he imposed 127.2% tariffs on China, which can shut off our supply of rare earth elements and magnets which would cripple our defense and other industries. And when he imposed 50% tariffs on Brazil. The USA has a sizeable trade surplus in goods and services with Brazil... Originally Posted by Tiny
You may recall China signed a very large agricultural deal with the US on Jan 15, 2020. Though they later welched on it because of some, errr, uuhhmm, distractions, which gave them some cover.



Regardless, where did you say China would make up the lost export revenue if we curtail our share of it?

For that matter, where did you say China would make up the difference in ag imports, if not from the US?

Also, located in the BTW file: China's debt is over 300% of GDP, likely to top 400% in the very near future.

In short... they ain't well. Oh, and some of their military hardware is fake too.
Why_Yes_I_Do's Avatar
A) The books!


More importantly, all through the "joey" administration, particularly when they needed it the most. You know, like after the COVID and return to work was tagged as net jobs added, but especially right before the 2024 election, which coincidentally, dovetailed with a Jerome "Too Late" Powell interest rate reduction after y-e-a-r-s of "transitory" inflation. 'member all those job gains? Poof! Didn't happen.

Chef Dr. Erika McEntarfer is now unemployed and a new crew is sifting through the ashes. Might take a few weeks to see how totally we were lied to all along the way.
  • Tiny
  • Today, 11:47 AM
You may recall China signed a very large agricultural deal with the US on Jan 15, 2020. Though they later welched on it because of some, errr, uuhhmm, distractions, which gave them some cover.



Regardless, where did you say China would make up the lost export revenue if we curtail our share of it?

For that matter, where did you say China would make up the difference in ag imports, if not from the US?

Also, located in the BTW file: China's debt is over 300% of GDP, likely to top 400% in the very near future.

In short... they ain't well. Oh, and some of their military hardware is fake too. Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do
That's all good and well WYID, but doesn't change the fact that China can cripple a number of United States' industries if it bans direct and indirect exports of rare earth elements and magnets to the USA. This is a big problem that Obama and Biden should have been working on, and that Trump should have solved before he imposed a 125% tariff on Chinese imports. But our political class is a bunch of dumb asses. China's in the catbird's seat. The USA can't truly fuck it over, because it can fuck America over worse.

From ChatGPT,

If China were to cut off the supply of rare earth elements (REEs) and magnets, the impact on the U.S. economy and national security could be severe and immediate, especially in several strategic and high-tech industries. Here's a breakdown of the most vulnerable sectors:

⚙️ 1. Defense Industry

Extremely High Impact

The U.S. military is highly dependent on rare earth elements for:

Precision-guided munitions

Missile guidance systems

Radar systems

Jet engines (F-35 uses many REEs)

Satellites and communications

Electric motors in naval vessels and drones

Permanent magnets (especially neodymium-iron-boron) are critical in many of these applications. A supply disruption would directly undermine military readiness.

🚘 2. Automotive and EV Industry

High to Extreme Impact

Modern vehicles—especially electric vehicles (EVs)—rely on REEs for:

Electric motors (neodymium, dysprosium)

Battery technologies

Catalytic converters (cerium, lanthanum)

Companies like Tesla and GM would face production halts or extreme cost hikes.

⚡ 3. Renewable Energy Sector (Wind, Solar)

High Impact

Rare earth magnets are vital for:

Wind turbine generators (use large amounts of neodymium and dysprosium)

Solar panel components

This could delay the energy transition and increase dependence on fossil fuels.

📱 4. Consumer Electronics

Moderate to High Impact

REEs are essential for:

Smartphones

Laptops

Headphones

Televisions

Hard drives (which use rare earth magnets)

Apple, Intel, AMD, and other tech companies rely on a stable REE supply chain.

🚀 5. Aerospace Industry

High Impact

Aircraft (both civilian and military) use REEs in:

Jet engines

Actuation systems

Sensors and electronics

Boeing and other aerospace giants would face serious manufacturing delays.

🛠️ 6. Industrial Automation and Robotics

Moderate to High Impact

Robotics, CNC machines, and automated systems use:

Permanent magnets in motors

Sensors and actuators

Manufacturing productivity could be hurt, especially in high-tech sectors.

🔬 7. Medical Equipment

Moderate Impact

REEs are used in:

MRI machines

X-ray machines

Cancer treatment systems

A shortage would disrupt hospitals and diagnostic equipment manufacturers.

🪙 BONUS: Green Tech & Clean Tech Investment

High Strategic Impact

Investment in green tech could drop sharply due to rising costs and uncertainty, affecting:

ESG funds

Climate policy targets

Energy independence goals

🇨🇳 Context: Why This Threat Is Real

China currently controls:

~60–70% of rare earth mining

~85–90% of processing capacity

Nearly all of the world’s supply of high-performance rare earth magnets

🧭 Bottom Line

If China cut off REE exports to the U.S., the worst-hit industries would be:

Defense

Electric Vehicles

Aerospace

Renewables

Consumer Electronics

This scenario poses a national security threat, not just an economic one.
Why_Yes_I_Do's Avatar
That's all good and well WYID, but doesn't change the fact that China can cripple a number of United States' industries if it bans direct and indirect exports of rare earth elements and magnets to the USA. This is a big problem that Obama and Biden should have been working on, and that Trump should have solved before he imposed a 125% tariff on Chinese imports. But our political class is a bunch of dumb asses. China's in the catbird's seat. The USA can't truly fuck it over, because it can fuck America over worse... Originally Posted by Tiny
Next up: four two word phrases:

Green-Land
I believe the whole Greenland thing was predominately for rare earths.

U-Kraine
We get minerals from Ukraine regardless of who ends up ruling it.

West Texas
...Domestic sources of REEs in the U.S. include the Round Top deposit in West Texas, which hosts 15 of the 17 rare earth elements, including all the heavy rare earth elements, along with other high-tech metals like gallium and lithium.
This deposit is being developed by USA Rare Earth, which is building processing capabilities, including a proprietary Continuous Ion Exchange process, to extract and separate these elements...

Wheatland, Wyoming
Another significant discovery is an estimated 2.34 billion metric tons of rare earth minerals near Wheatland, Wyoming, which could potentially surpass China's reserves and establish the U.S. as the world's largest supplier.
our political class is a bunch of dumb asses
But Trump is not. Art of the Deal Amigo?!?

How about a txt, tweet or call from the artfull deal maker to some well to do entrepreneur/whiz-kid, requesting a couple billion dineros to start a plant in Wheatland, Wyoming.

Expand your thinking. Take more of what ever you were taking on post #10 above, unless it would violate board rulz.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=45Q4Zk3CN8k
offshoredrilling's Avatar
A) The books!


More importantly, all through the "joey" administration, particularly when they needed it the most. You know, like after the COVID and return to work was tagged as net jobs added, but especially right before the 2024 election, which coincidentally, dovetailed with a Jerome "Too Late" Powell interest rate reduction after y-e-a-r-s of "transitory" inflation. 'member all those job gains? Poof! Didn't happen.

Chef Dr. Erika McEntarfer is now unemployed and a new crew is sifting through the ashes. Might take a few weeks to see how totally we were lied to all along the way. Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do
all I know is all I know that took the jabs, may they RIP
txdot-guy's Avatar
So what changed, exactly?!? The law or the adherence to the law? Frankly, one could ask the same question on border adherence.

Seems all it took to close down the open boarder was adherence to the existing law. Why should it be any different with enforcing immigration laws?!? Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do
Your question doesn’t have anything to do with the topic which is the economy and whether Trump OWNS it. If you want to comment on how the money allocated to immigration enforcement has an impact and what that impact is feel free because that’s the topic I was referencing. Not whether Trump’s increase in enforcement is justified or not.

Lemme see if'n I'm following the bouncing ball: So I had asked 3 questions and you responded by asking a question. So I'll answer yours.

Besides avoiding raising taxes of over $1.4 TRILLION on American citizens, because a previous Congress made the cuts temporary, it included funding to enforce our existing immigration laws that previous Congresses had passed without funding the enforcement thereof, not to mention a previous administration who left the doors wide the hell open. Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do
Your answer to this question is on topic.

My response. The extension of the Trump 1.0 tax cuts simply add to the deficit. But I am not going to debate tax policy and reform in this post. As for your comment on immigration enforcement funding I thought I was clear in my last post on the subject. See post #32.

Here it is summarized. The labor requirement to deport and enforce Trump’s immigration enforcement policies while simultaneously removing workers from our labor force will have real repercussions in our economy.

Here is a link to a recent working paper regarding implications of a reduced labor force on the economy if you are so inclined.

https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/...abor-force.pdf
texassapper's Avatar


Yeah... who knew the Democrats were lying amiright?!
Why_Yes_I_Do's Avatar
I do not recall an able-body clause for collecting on Medicare. I do recall most workers contribute to it their entire working life and it's not a voluntary contribution either. Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do
Oops, my bad...correction...Medicaid recipients.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins suggested this
“Ultimately, the answer on this is automation, also some reform within the current governing structure, and then also, when you think about there are 34 million able-bodied adults in our Medicaid program, there are plenty of workers in America.”