Here is the math. Pick it apart all you want but in the end
, the results are consistent with what providers admit to me after I disclose to them that I am HSV+. (By "consistent" I mean that only about half of them admit it but I suspect many hold back for fear that I may tell the wrong person)
By "seasoned" I mean with a history of at least 50 sexual partners. As you all well know, most providers go way over this number, even above 1000. Moreover, females are far more likely to contract herpes when exposed.
The probability of rolling a given number on a common six sided die is 16.66% per roll. That is not too far from the published HSV infection rates but this has little relevance as I will explain later. It is, however good for explaining how to derive an equation to calculate HSV infection rate of a population.
If you are rolling 6 six-sided standard dice what are the odds of rolling six of a kind at least once? The easiest equation is 1 - the odds of NOT rolling 6: (5/6 times) multiplied to the exponential power of how many times rolled.
Where R = rolls The answer is:
1-(5/6)Er (Er means to the r'th power)
with 6 rolls it is 66.5%
Obviously you are not 66% likely to have herpes after only 6 partners. This is because there are other intervening factors that lower the transmission rate. HSV+ individuals do not shed the virus most of the time and even if exposed, you are not 100% likely to get herpes. (higher in women, lower in men), additionally, condom use decreases (does not eliminate) transmission rate.
The easiest way to calculate the average HSV transmission rate is to back into it using published average partners (6 to 8) and percentage infected (15.1%). Given the above,
I believe the real chance of getting herpes at any time is only about 2.5% (1/40). This changes the above equation as follows:
Calculating the odds of having herpes Where R = sexual partner/events, the equation above changes to 1-(39/40)Er
Six partners comes to 14.1%
eight partners comes to 18.3%
fifty partners comes to 71.8%
BUT WAIT, THERE IS MORE! all of this is assuming you are having sex with the “average” person where only 1/6 people have herpes. Seasoned providers and hobbyists are far from “average”. With the above in mind, it is easy to understand why the HSV infection rate is so high in seasoned providers and hobbyists as well.
I believe it is as high as 80%.
Again, I find this high rate is consistent with what providers admit to me after I disclose that I am HSV+ .
To all of the HSV+ providers: contrary to what others may imply, you are not in the minority. Everyone else is hiding it just like you. They are afraid to admit it for fear of public outrage from a few uneducated drama queens as you have already seen post here in this thread.
To all of the HSV+ hobbiests: ditto
I doubt this will get anyone else to come forward, but I hope it puts peoples' minds at ease knowing that they are far from alone. In our unique little community, they are the majority.