I am actually going to use this quote the next time I teach a stats class--it is near perfect!
It demonstrates the wonderful misuse of statistical analysis: don't like what hundreds of data points say, well pick apart individual ones. Ignore trends and look at a single instantiation.
The data trends in temperature, storms, migratory patters, ice formation, etc., etc., are all there. But the fools point to the anomalies and say there is no change.
Argue about how to respond, but that is a separate thing from acknowledging what is happening.
Originally Posted by Old-T
My condolences to your students. Your grasp of stats isn't any better than your grasp of fact.
When the margin of error is greater than the alleged anomoly, it is not statistically clear if there even is an anomly, as is the case for 2015.
When you say a particular year was the warmest on record one day and the next day say that what you said yesterday only has a 38% chance of being true you've admitted that chances are, what said was not true. Therefore no anomly again. This was the case in 2014. The temperature trend is flat. It has been for 18 plus years.
As for storms, no upward trend in frequency or severity. Hurricane intensity and frequency trending down. Artic sea ice has increased %47 percent since 2012. More ice, more older ice.
You know bupkis. Fool.