[Meanwhile, Tranny Claus Is Busy "Wrapping" Wtf's Tiny Package.Tiny, watch your package around lusty, it seems all that praise you've had of his economic prowess has him dreaming about your package.
] Originally Posted by lustylad
- WTF
- 11-23-2021, 11:51 AM
- oeb11
- 11-23-2021, 11:55 AM
Unfortunaely - this thread has devolved into nonsense.
fact - DPST party claims teh $5+Trillion dollars they spend this year (9 and it is only the beginning) - COSTS Nothing!!!!
typical Fiden voodoo economics and DPST Lies!
Sad - these bills are a disaster for America and our economy.
fact - DPST party claims teh $5+Trillion dollars they spend this year (9 and it is only the beginning) - COSTS Nothing!!!!
typical Fiden voodoo economics and DPST Lies!
Sad - these bills are a disaster for America and our economy.
- lustylad
- 11-23-2021, 12:08 PM
- Salty Again
- 11-23-2021, 03:40 PM
... Hello Mates...
When you're looking for Good tucker at a good price
- come to Outback Steak!
The BEST place ... uh ... North of down under.
... "No Rules - Just Right!"
... Go there Today!
#### Salty
(Now back to the insults)
When you're looking for Good tucker at a good price
- come to Outback Steak!
The BEST place ... uh ... North of down under.
... "No Rules - Just Right!"
... Go there Today!
#### Salty
(Now back to the insults)
- rexdutchman
- 11-24-2021, 07:59 AM
- WTF
- 11-24-2021, 08:37 AM
- Jacuzzme
- 11-24-2021, 10:22 AM
Unless he’s packing.
- WTF
- 11-24-2021, 11:42 AM
- WTF
- 11-24-2021, 12:34 PM
Here's an interesting graph, federal debt held by the public as a % of GDP,Excellent graph Tiny.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYGFGDQ188S
The federal debt, net of government holdings, was around 40% at the end of the Reagan Administration. That's a pretty healthy level.
. Originally Posted by Tiny
A few points....Reagan took it from under 25% to the forties. It had never been over 30% between 1970 and 1980.
Reagan increased was almost 2/3.
Taken in that context his numbers do not look so great. In fact Bush thought Reagan economics, Voodoo. I tend to agree.
Clinton brought that number way down...with Bush Sr and Ross Perot huge helping hands.
It was the best of times for someone like myself who hates debt.
My man Bush rightly pointing out what an economic fraud Reagan was. Perot making debt a focal point. Clinton , with a huge help from the 1994 newly elected GOP House taking debt on.
Alas...it was short lived. Bush was elected and the House started spending like Democrats....wait what was the member when Carter handed off to Reagan? 24%.
And folks question why I say Reagan started this whole debt mess.
- Texas Contrarian
- 11-30-2021, 02:31 PM
.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hair_of_the_dog
https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/hair-of-the-dog
https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0214163637.htm
So ... continuing the overindulgence might make everybody feel better.
At least for a while!
.
Inflation is just like alcoholism. In both cases, when you start drinking or when you start printing too much money, the good effects come first, the bad effects only come later. That is why, in both cases, there is a strong temptation to overdo it—to drink too much or to print too muchIf some problem that was caused or exacerbated in the past by too much spending and money-printing arises, let's just cure it by doing ... more of the same! (By now, everyone surely must realize that's what we're going to do -- for as long as we can!)
money.
When it comes to the cure, it is the other way about. When you stop drinking, or when you stop printing money, the bad effects come first and the good effects only come later. That is why it is so hard to persist with the cure.
"Why Inflation Is Like Alcoholism"
- Milton Friedman, April 1980
https://miltonfriedman.hoover.org/ob...ike-alcoholism Originally Posted by lustylad
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hair_of_the_dog
https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/hair-of-the-dog
https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0214163637.htm
So ... continuing the overindulgence might make everybody feel better.
At least for a while!
.
- Texas Contrarian
- 11-30-2021, 02:41 PM
.
But here is why I doubt that inflation will look like the most serious concern facing the nation a year or two from now:
Immediately after World War II ended, we saw what could have been called the mother of all supply capacity issues, and U.S. businesses needed time to completely revamp factories and production patterns to even begin to catch up.
Needless to say, supply of consumer goods was severely constricted during the war. Almost everything was in short supply -- and many items were strictly rationed if available at all. At the same time, the household saving rate was as high as 25% during some of the war years. People were urged to be patriotic and buy "war bonds." The nation had a deep pool of savings and little opportunity to spend them.
Men who fought in WWII came home, got married, started families, bought cars, and bought homes or leased apartments. Demand for almost everything shot through the roof. Refrigerators, washing machines, furniture, radios, TV sets (new then!), cars, you name it.
It took a while for U.S. industrial capacity to shift from guns, ammunition, tanks, airplanes, etc. to cars, appliances, and other civilian goods. But, understandably, they put on a full-court press to get it done. As has so often happened throughout history, supply shortages turned into something of a glut after massive pent-up demand was satisfied. Inflation raged in 1946-47 (at much higher rates than today), but disappeared in 1949 when the U.S. entered a short deflationary recession.
Although the causes are completely different, we now have a similar household savings/supply imbalance. According to some estimates, personal bank balances are $2-2.5 trillion greater than the pre-pandemic trend owing to massive covid relief packages which greatly exceeded pandemic-induced salary and wage deficits. Inflation rates will remain elevated while pent-up demand is satisfied during the supply chain's return to normalcy. Then consumption will slow sharply and inflation rates will likely return to trend in the sort of low-growth trajectory our economy has been following for many years.
So, in my view the "rate of change of the rate of change" in the inflation numbers will itself be changing soon enough, and accelerating to the downside. (Think second derivative.)
The biggest challenges for politicians will occur if the electorate's perception is that wage increases aren't keeping up with the total increase in the consumer price level during the period of higher-than-trend inflation.
.
But here is why I doubt that inflation will look like the most serious concern facing the nation a year or two from now:
I'm just sitting back and taking this in. It's always educational when you and LL engage here. Your thoughts about the Fed causing asset price inflation and the spendthrift politicians causing consumer price inflation are interesting.Here's a quick rundown of why -- within the next 12-24 months -- inflation could recede sharply, unlike in the 1970s. An entirely different set of dynamics is driving it.
As you know, another frequently cited cause of inflation right now, especially by the Biden administration and Congressional Democrats, is a broken supply chain, low inventories, and higher demand coming out of COVID. That's the basis for their argument that inflation will be transitory, and you've mentioned it too. Originally Posted by Tiny
Immediately after World War II ended, we saw what could have been called the mother of all supply capacity issues, and U.S. businesses needed time to completely revamp factories and production patterns to even begin to catch up.
Needless to say, supply of consumer goods was severely constricted during the war. Almost everything was in short supply -- and many items were strictly rationed if available at all. At the same time, the household saving rate was as high as 25% during some of the war years. People were urged to be patriotic and buy "war bonds." The nation had a deep pool of savings and little opportunity to spend them.
Men who fought in WWII came home, got married, started families, bought cars, and bought homes or leased apartments. Demand for almost everything shot through the roof. Refrigerators, washing machines, furniture, radios, TV sets (new then!), cars, you name it.
It took a while for U.S. industrial capacity to shift from guns, ammunition, tanks, airplanes, etc. to cars, appliances, and other civilian goods. But, understandably, they put on a full-court press to get it done. As has so often happened throughout history, supply shortages turned into something of a glut after massive pent-up demand was satisfied. Inflation raged in 1946-47 (at much higher rates than today), but disappeared in 1949 when the U.S. entered a short deflationary recession.
Although the causes are completely different, we now have a similar household savings/supply imbalance. According to some estimates, personal bank balances are $2-2.5 trillion greater than the pre-pandemic trend owing to massive covid relief packages which greatly exceeded pandemic-induced salary and wage deficits. Inflation rates will remain elevated while pent-up demand is satisfied during the supply chain's return to normalcy. Then consumption will slow sharply and inflation rates will likely return to trend in the sort of low-growth trajectory our economy has been following for many years.
So, in my view the "rate of change of the rate of change" in the inflation numbers will itself be changing soon enough, and accelerating to the downside. (Think second derivative.)
The biggest challenges for politicians will occur if the electorate's perception is that wage increases aren't keeping up with the total increase in the consumer price level during the period of higher-than-trend inflation.
.
- WTF
- 11-30-2021, 04:46 PM
Tiny,
The above from CM is the kind of macro analysis they can help your portfolio.
LL on the other hand spews a bunch of micro partisan nonsense that is similar to some spiritual guru trying to convince the gullible that a God damn humming bird flapping his wings is the cause of a hurricanes.
Absolutely worthless bs vs nonpartisan trends that are concise and useful. (Except when adav8 winds him up
then CM can go off on a tangent!)
The above from CM is the kind of macro analysis they can help your portfolio.
LL on the other hand spews a bunch of micro partisan nonsense that is similar to some spiritual guru trying to convince the gullible that a God damn humming bird flapping his wings is the cause of a hurricanes.
Absolutely worthless bs vs nonpartisan trends that are concise and useful. (Except when adav8 winds him up
then CM can go off on a tangent!)
- bambino
- 11-30-2021, 06:10 PM
- dilbert firestorm
- 11-30-2021, 07:18 PM
- Salty Again
- 11-30-2021, 07:31 PM
