TRUMP 2020 U.S.A. - Page 55

Would you vote for Hegar if it meant flipping the Senate and getting rid of Mitch McConnell? Because it might. Originally Posted by BJonesBaby

Very possible. However, I don't see Texas in play for the Senate seat. Republicans will pick up the Alabama seat. Democrats will pick up the Colorado and Arizona seats. The Republican seats in Maine and NC are in jeopardy. Republican Senate seats in Montana and Iowa and Georgia could turn from red to blue although they are longer shots. No other Democratic Senate seat other than Alabama is in real jeopardy of being lost.

If Trump loses big time in November, he could cost Republicans the Senate.

...I always use the 538 ...Polls may be incorrect at times to a slight degree but they've never been that incorrect. Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

538 you say? Accurate you say? Slight degree you say? Never been that incorrect you say?

I say...

I see you didn't deny it. Check your PMs - you will be having mail.

Sounds like you’re one of those senile Trump Filth Cult members. Whats so special about you besides having a potty mouth and probably an ugly face.

Attachment 872858 Originally Posted by PythonLeeJackson

538 you say? Accurate you say? Slight degree you say? Never been that incorrect you say?

I say...
Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

Every once in a while you post something intelligent. This is not one of those times.

538 summarizes the polls of polling companies. They do no polling themselves. The results for 2016 were based on over 1100 individual polls conducted prior to the election. The major errors were in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. And in the week prior to the election the latest polls had Trump ahead in Michigan and close in Pennsylvania. Since the information in the chart gives equal weight to ALL polls, the late surge in favor of Trump is not captured.

Take a class in Market Research 101 for a better understanding.

And today, Trump’s interview with Chris Wallace aired. Wallace got in Trump’s face and challenged his lies. Trump flailed and perspired like a nervous defendant. it was not a flattering moment for Trump on his most favorable soapbox. I believe it’s only a matter of weeks before vulnerable Republican incumbents abandon Trump altogether.

Would you vote for Hegar if it meant flipping the Senate and getting rid of Mitch McConnell? Because it might. Originally Posted by BJonesBaby

Hell, i'd consider selling my soul (well, maybe renting it) to get rid of him. Biggest do nothing on the Hill. Last I heard he has held up the voting bill for 200+ days (along with a number of other things.)

Every once in a while you post something intelligent. This is not one of those times.

... Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

This morning comes with news that Trump now says wearing a mask is patriotic and nobody is more patriotic than “your favorite President.”

I don’t know about you, but I’m switching my vote to Trump! He is in step with the nation! Ha!

Attachment 872887

Ha! I was right. Try harder Yssup - I know you wanna.

Attachment 872887 Originally Posted by PythonLeeJackson

This morning comes with news that Trump now says wearing a mask is patriotic and nobody is more patriotic than “your favorite President.”

I don’t know about you, but I’m switching my vote to Trump! He is in step with the nation! Ha! Originally Posted by BJonesBaby

I found his news conference yesterday to be rather ironic. He is admitting he has been wrong without admitting it.

He is finally recommending people wear masks after being against it, himself included, from the beginning.

After downplaying the possible severity of the coronavirus from the beginning, he now says Covid-19 crisis 'will probably unfortunately get worse before it gets better'.

Trump is behind Biden. His approval rating on the coronavirus is about 33%. He realizes he has to do something to improve his standing with voters and by going back to giving coronavirus updates, without medical support with him, is in his eyes the best way to do it. We shall see.

With Trump, it’s all about TV ratings. He doesn’t even talk about any other approval standard, especially when mocking anybody who isn’t him. His “briefing” yesterday had all the passion and leadership of his press conference where he was forced to begrudgingly admit Obama was not, in fact, born In Kenya.

His niece’s new book confirms what many of us have known all along. Trump is mentally ill and has never been fit to lead the country.

Kasich will endorse Biden at the Democratic convention, and other high profile Republicans are fleeing his sinking ship. Hopefully, it’s too late for many of them, like Cornyn, who will regret his record as a Trump enabler. Gov. Abbott already does.

...538 summarizes the polls of polling companies. They do no polling themselves. The results for 2016 were based on over 1100 individual polls conducted prior to the election. ... Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

You gonna tell the world that 538 was so categorically and seismically wrong because one or two polls out of 1,100 got Michigan wrong?!? Sheeeze! Riddle me this: what did 1,100 polls do wrong then, that they have corrected since then? Nevermind. Goal-seeking was the enemy then and remains so. But then, I want the MSM to continue in their fatal flaw of informing people that Joe "Hiden" Biden is so far ahead in the polls that there is no reason for concern.

Here is some info to help you understand. It won't cure your continuously confirmed conformation bias and likely won't imbue with a clue either. However, it is how it works.

Rasmussen Reports, weight check on aisle 3, please!

...Weighting Republicans in your RV polls in the mid-to-low 20%'s? Based on what public bench-marking? #fanfiction

( @SHEPMJS
Tip: pull the other weight cards from Nov 2016 - except for @FoxNews
- who deleted theirs...)...

5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls

In presidential elections, even the smallest changes in horse-race poll results seem to become imbued with deep meaning. But they are often overstated. Pollsters disclose a margin of error so that consumers can have an understanding of how much precision they can reasonably expect. But cool-headed reporting on polls is harder than it looks, because some of the better-known statistical rules of thumb that a smart consumer might think apply are more nuanced than they seem. In other words, as is so often true in life, it’s complicated.

Here are some tips on how to think about a poll’s margin of error and what it means for the different kinds of things we often try to learn from survey data...

You gonna tell the world that 538 was so categorically and seismically wrong because one or two polls out of 1,100 got Michigan wrong?!? Sheeeze! Riddle me this: what did 1,100 polls do wrong then, that they have corrected since then? Nevermind. Goal-seeking was the enemy then and remains so. But then, I want the MSM to continue in their fatal flaw of informing people that Joe "Hiden" Biden is so far ahead in the polls that there is no reason for concern.

Here is some info to help you understand. It won't cure your continuously confirmed conformation bias and likely won't imbue with a clue either. However, it is how it works.

Rasmussen Reports, weight check on aisle 3, please!

...Weighting Republicans in your RV polls in the mid-to-low 20%'s? Based on what public bench-marking? #fanfiction

( @SHEPMJS
Tip: pull the other weight cards from Nov 2016 - except for @FoxNews
- who deleted theirs...)...

5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls

In presidential elections, even the smallest changes in horse-race poll results seem to become imbued with deep meaning. But they are often overstated. Pollsters disclose a margin of error so that consumers can have an understanding of how much precision they can reasonably expect. But cool-headed reporting on polls is harder than it looks, because some of the better-known statistical rules of thumb that a smart consumer might think apply are more nuanced than they seem. In other words, as is so often true in life, it’s complicated.

Here are some tips on how to think about a poll’s margin of error and what it means for the different kinds of things we often try to learn from survey data... Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

To repeat -- 538 is neither right nor wrong as a source since they do no polling. They summarize the polls of other companies. The 1100 polls were taken over many, many months and each was weighted the same. Problem was the latter polls showed trending towards Trump and could not overcome the average weighting. There is no "goal-seeking" in polling, at least by the reputable companies. Again, I suggest you take a class in Market Research 101 to understand polling procedures.

Polls have been very accurate over the years. As I said regarding the 2016 polls, the polls right before the election had Trump coming on strong in Michigan and PA., actually leading in Michigan. I don't look at miniscule changes in polls and leap to conclusions. I look more at trends. Right now there is absolutely no reason to believe Trump will win in November other than blind faith that a miracle similar to 2016 will occur again. Very little positive.

You can choose to disregard polls. Trump follows them VERY closely and takes appropriate action. Latest poll has Biden +13 in Florida. Trump knows that if he loses Florida his path to victory becomes close to non-existant. He is already pouring vast amounts of money into the state and will be visiting it frequently. Why? He understands the polls.