Your link only has numbers for 1% of the USA population being infected (approx. 3.3 million people). It's too early to make predictions on survival rates.
Ioannidis predicted that ONLY 10,000 USA citizen would die from CV19 if 1% of the population became infected with CV19. He was off by 90,000 people. This is something that can't be disputed.
If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths.
If his calculation estimate had been accurate, you could argue that going for Herd Immunity would be the option to choose. However, with 105,000 deaths with just 1% of the population being infected, Fauci and others gave Trump the right advice to SHUT things down and do the social distancing to contain the spread.
Originally Posted by adav8s28
Yeah, if you need to get to 70% of the population to get herd immunity, then with Ioannidis' 0.3% infection fatality rate you'd have almost 700,000 deaths.
0.003 x 0.7 x 327,000,000 = 687,000 deaths
Looking at it another way, if you believe that the infection fatality rate is 0.3%, then the number of Americans who would have been infected, given 111,000 deaths, is 111,000/.003 = 37 million Americans. This would have been several weeks ago, as it takes some time between infection and death. This is 11% of the American population.
I believe less than 11% of the population has been infected, based on studies using antibody tests. Therefore I believe the infection fatality rate is greater than 0.3%. But still, with 0.3%, you end up with almost 700,000 dead Americans to get to herd immunity.