Lusty, compare charts. This will solidify the point about it being the Ron Johnson chart
https://www.ronjohnson.senate.gov/border-security
Waco, that response is exactly why I don't think you're interested in a real convo. Open borders isn't reality today and it's not likely to be reality. It's a rally cry. It's a fear mongering tactic. It's one of the boogeyman's various miasma. We wouldn't have these levels of encounters, apprehensions and expulsions if we had an open border. We wouldn't have the visa denials we have if there were an open border. It's a tiresome discussion pegged in an extreme fear that doesn't focus on our actual laws, all the mechanisms in place or the reality of the work being done every day.
The stampede trend began under Trump. The actual acceleration is masked a bit because we're looking at apprehensions, not unique persons. It's divorced of a significant amount of context. No doubt up bigly under Biden, but we'll leave it there for now.
Also, Waco... since Border Czar isn't a real title, today you're Border Czar. Don't fuck it up.
Originally Posted by HDGristle
Don't be discouraged Gristle. I tried to point out here how difficult life is for law-abiding asylum seekers during the 1+ year period when they're not allowed to work. Singles are supposed to survive on less than $250/month in government assistance. Left leaning posters scorned me and right leaning posters diplomatically ignored me. TxDot's scorn was kind and gentle though. Anyway, you're getting a much better reception than I did.
I believe you're talking apples and the Waco Kid and LustyLad are talking oranges. You're emphasizing the situation of people who have applied to become lawful residents. They're focused on the total number of immigrants crossing the border, the majority of whom are undocumented. And they've got a point.
Take a look at the "Net Immigration" graph about 1/3rd of the way through this link,
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59899
The nonpartisan CBO estimates that net immigration to the USA was 2.6 million in 2022 and 3.3 million in 2023. They're estimating another 3.3 million net increase in 2024.
Scroll down a little farther and you'll come to "Net Immigration, by Category." The "Other" category here includes people who entered illegally, and people permitted to enter through the use of parole authority who may be awaiting proceedings in immigration court. I'd guess most of the "other" category consists of illegal immigrants, and the figure in 2023 and 2024 appears to be around 2.4 million people per year.
Also please note the trend in the first graph. The LPR+ category, which includes "permanent residents (LPRs) plus people who are eligible to apply to become LPRs on the basis of their current status, such as asylees and refugees," has remained flat. It's the "other" category, which includes illegal immigrants, that spiked.
For comparison, nonfarm payrolls increased by 2.8 million in 2023.
Can we accommodate that many immigrants annually without wages and unemployment being affected significantly? Right now I think I'd argue yes, as the size of the working-age population hasn't really increased since 6/30/2023. But when it does increase, I don't think so. That's too many people. I say that with hesitation though as the effects of Cuban immigrants on the strip club industry have been highly favorable for consumers like me. Quality and quantity are up and inflation-adjusted prices are down!
TxDot posted a link to a CNN article that quoted Goldman Sachs research. The GS analysts estimated that the immigration surge "eased wage growth by 0.3 percentage points at the national level and by at least as twice as much in the low-paying leisure and hospitality sector."
Given that Kamala's matched Trump's proposal to exempt taxes on tips, maybe this is why Trump's very competitive in Nevada, which has lots of hospitality workers, this time around.
There are parallels to the political impact of inflation and the loss of purchasing power here. Republicans argue probably with justification that Biden/Harris weren't doing a good job of policing the border. They likewise argue that Biden's/Pelosi's/Schumer's American Rescue Plan kickstarted inflation. People saw prices they pay go up, and real (inflation adjusted) wages went down.
The Waco Kid and LustyLad are reflecting what the majority of the country thinks, as reflected in polls: the Biden administration hasn't done a great job of managing the border situation.
