Are we headed for a world wide meltdown?

Yes Tiny I do believe that I've posted about how we are going from efficent supply chains to safe. That comes at a cost.

But there are many indications that we are at peak inflation. Lumber prices are coming down...without this Putin fuck up, oil prices would already be back down.

And remember to never say never...

This thread's opening post contains a piece by B-Dud (former NY Fed prez) opining that a recession is now pretty much baked into the pie. Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

Cullen Roche (the "pragcap guy") often has a good take on issues. Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

Thanks for the informative and thought provoking pieces by Dudley and Cullen Roche in your posts on page 6 of this thread.

In particular, I'd never thought about the following, which makes a lot of sense, and may help explain in part why many economists believe the Fed will be able get away with a peak Fed Funds rate around 2.5% to 3% this time around:

In contrast to many other countries, the U.S. economy doesn’t respond directly to the level of short-term interest rates. Most home borrowers aren’t affected, because they have long-term, fixed-rate mortgages. And, again in contrast to many other countries, many U.S. households do hold a significant amount of their wealth in equities. As a result, they’re sensitive to financial conditions: Equity prices influence how wealthy they feel, and how willing they are to spend rather than save.

I also liked the punch bowl comment, although I'm not sure I agree with it. One of the previous chairmen of the Federal Reserve said something like "It's the Fed's job to take away the punch bowl from the party when people start getting lit." Well, it seems to me like this Fed has been more inclined to spike the bowl with Everclear when the party really gets going.

I didn't really understand the italicized part below. At some point presumably inflation will be under control and the Fed will back off. Why does the expectation that will happen make it more difficult for the Fed to jack up rates now?

The S&P 500 index is down only about 4% from its peak in early January, and still up a lot from its pre-pandemic level. Similarly, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note stands at 2.5%, up just 0.75 percentage point from a year ago and still way below the inflation rate. This is happening because market participants expect higher short-term rates to undermine economic growth and force the Fed to reverse course in 2024 and 2025 — but these very expectations are preventing the tightening of financial conditions that would make such an outcome more likely.

There was an article in the Wall Street Journal this weekend, a news piece, not an editorial, that said 3 million Americans had dropped out of the labor force as a result of COVID. You have people who just don't want to work anymore, some because they're afraid they'll get COVID, and others because of other reasons. I wonder what kind of an effect that will have? I'd think it would increase the probability of some kind of wage/price spiral, if there's a big shortage of labor as a result.

This Labor shortage is the damndest thing. I talk to people daily, about financial matters, nobody has it figured out.

Covid, and the unemployment raise is part of it. The stimulus payments that made people feel rich, who then pumped money into Robinhood, and caused Bitcoin and Cathy Wood funds to spike, making people feel even more rich is part of it.

Those stimuli are long passed. Unemployment scaled back last June, in most States. Crypto and tech stocks are far below their prices of early 2021.

But wages are still spiking. Workers feel ''in control''. and they are. My Company is under-staffed, like so many others. Good and bad for me... More money, more work.. More STRESS.

We are in a Profits Recession already.. A true Recession won't come until Workers feel the pain Companies are already feeling. That is not happening soon. Next year, most likely.

This Labor shortage is the damndest thing. I talk to people daily, about financial matters, nobody has it figured out.

Covid, and the unemployment raise is part of it. The stimulus payments that made people feel rich, who then pumped money into Robinhood, and caused Bitcoin and Cathy Wood funds to spike, making people feel even more rich is part of it.

Those stimuli are long passed. Unemployment scaled back last June, in most States. Crypto and tech stocks are far below their prices of early 2021.

But wages are still spiking. Workers feel ''in control''. and they are. My Company is under-staffed, like so many others. Good and bad for me... More money, more work.. More STRESS.

We are in a Profits Recession already.. A true Recession won't come until Workers feel the pain Companies are already feeling. That is not happening soon. Next year, most likely. Originally Posted by Chung Tran

I read that somewhere that 3 million people have dropped out of the labor force, and COVID accounts for the majority. Many are afraid of getting COVID so stay home. And many are long haulers who have difficulty working. The writer said that 5 months after hospitalization, 20% of COVID sufferers still weren’t working, and another 20% weren’t working for their pre-COVID employers

Only fools are afraid at this point in time - IMHO.
Free schtuff for everybody.
Or is there something else at play here??

The ‘Long Covid’ Fraud
By The Exposé on February 26, 2022 • ( 69 Comments )
The UK Government says that there are now officially 1.3 million people in Britain suffering from long covid – and that the figure is rising fast.

By Dr Vernon Coleman

A report from the US suggests that around 12 million Americans are alleged to have long covid...

...First, we have to remember that governments handed out huge sums of money to allow millions to stay at home for 2020 and 2021. If you have been paid to stay at home and do nothing for a year it is difficult to get out of the habit of getting up at 10.00 am and spending the day watching TV or playing computer games.

None of this was accidental, of course.

The absurd schemes whereby governments gave healthy people huge sums of money to do nothing were deliberately designed to help wreck the global economy. Governments have deliberately created an army of malingerers who have got used to the idea of being paid to do absolutely nothing. It’s the beginning of the universal basic income – a critical part of the great reset.

Long covid was tailor made for malingerers who also happen to have been turned into hypochondriacs.

Second, governments have welcomed the growth in the number of alleged covid sufferers because it helps make people afraid of the rebranded flu – and accept the jabs which are dishonestly promoted as preventing it.

Third, governments know that if a huge chunk of the workforce stays at home the disruption and the cost will severely damage the economy. And that, of course, is part of the plan. Destroying the global economy is the reason for the absurd, destructive and unsustainable net zero project – abandoning fossil fuels and replacing oil, gas and coal with inefficient solar power, wind power and, most absurd of all, biomass. (It’s also the reason for the manufactured wars which are going to be a permanent part of our lives.)

Fourth, and this is crucial, the false long covid disease is an excellent cover for the injuries caused by the covid-19 jabs. Remember, long covid only appeared after people in trials were given the covid-19 jabs.

And just look at the problems known to be caused by the jabs and by long covid.

Here are ten of the commonest side effects associated with the covid-19 jabs. These just happen to be ten of the commonest symptoms associated with long covid: heart problems, stroke, clotting disorders, joint pains, convulsions and other neurological problems, Bell’s palsy, Guillain Barre syndrome, autoimmune disease, respiratory problems, mental health troubles and fatigue.

The problems caused by long covid are exactly the same as the problems caused by the covid jabs...

I underlined a couple things like the date this was published and a couple of the predictions of the impacts to the economy and mandates - which have all come true.

It's not about COVID, it's about control
Exclusive: Patrice Lewis says vaccine mandate is 'the hill to die on' for millions of Americans

By Patrice Lewis
Published September 17, 2021 at 7:36pm

You know, there's an old myth about a frog in a pot. I'm sure you've heard it. Supposedly if you put a frog in a pot of boiling water, it will immediately jump out. But if you put a frog in a pot of cold water and slowly heat up the water, it won't notice until it reaches the boiling point, at which point it's too late. The frog is cooked.

All the reductions in freedoms we've undergone in the last few decades have ratcheted up astronomically since the COVID scare. But with Biden's recent vaccine mandates, he may have just thrown the frog into the boiling water. In other words, he moved too quickly.

Lots of people have said they would never get the vaccine for a variety of reasons. But now that Biden has imposed mandates, there are screams of outrage:

• If Truckers Like Me Won't Comply, Biden's Vaccine Mandate Could Tank The Economy
• Yeah, about that 100 Employee mandate
• TRENDING: Elderly woman grabs stick, beats back creepy COVID tester: Video seen 1.5 million times
• Teachers Leaving Schools Over Medical Tyranny and CRT Now Have HIGH Market Value

In short, millions of people are facing job losses in light of these mandates. For the vast majority, mandates haven't made them more eager to get the vaccine. It's done the exact opposite: It has become the hill they're willing to die on.

Ironically, considering that COVID and the vaccines are (in theory) a medical issue, the medical system is one of the most pivotal industries under attack. Endless medical professionals are being silenced, threatened with firing, threatened with a loss of credentials, or all of the above if they speak out on what they're seeing or refuse to take the jab:

• Doctors Risk Losing License for Opinion on COVID-19 Vaccination Deemed 'Misinformation' by Certifying Boards
• We Have A Pandemic Of Censorship Against Physicians
• Biden's Vaccine Mandate Is Exacerbating the Nursing Shortage Which Is Already at Crisis Levels

Why are these health care professionals refusing the vaccine? What are they seeing? As it turns out, they're seeing thousands of people hospitalized with serious and life-threatening complications directly correlated with the vaccine. They're seeing thousands more who have contracted COVID despite being double-vaxxed. They're seeing that being vaccinated doesn't stop people from being contagious. In short, they're learning the vaccines do no good and much harm...

...Comically, Fauci says it may take "many, many" more vaccine mandates to get the pandemic under control. This is baloney, of course. If they wanted to get the pandemic "under control," they would universally prescribe ivermectin and the "pandemic" would be over within weeks, as happened recently in India.

But you'll notice – they're not. It should be abundantly clear by now this isn't about COVID. It's about control.

Mandates are going to crash the American economy. If one-third of the population of this nation refuses to take the vaccine and are fired because of it, that's one-third of the truckers, one-third of the teachers, one-third of the doctors, nurses and every other critical industry that keeps America going.

But in fact, Biden's vaccine mandates may be a good thing in the end. His handlers are too dumb to realize you can't throw a frog in a pot of boiling water. If millions of Americans declare forced vaccinations as the hill they're willing to die on, what then?

One thing is certain: The Biden régime will continue to ratchet up the panic, the hysteria, the misinformation, until it's taken to the next level. What that "next level" might be is anyone's guess.

A cornered animal fights viciously because it has nothing more to lose and everything to gain. Right now Americans are being pushed into a corner by their tormenters. As American history shows time and again, that is never a safe place to be – for the tormenters.

Reminder: The mid-terms are coming which provide an excellent opportunity to fight back. It is also your opportunity to heed the words:

I read that somewhere that 3 million people have dropped out of the labor force, and COVID accounts for the majority. Many are afraid of getting COVID so stay home. And many are long haulers who have difficulty working. The writer said that 5 months after hospitalization, 20% of COVID sufferers still weren’t working, and another 20% weren’t working for their pre-COVID employers Originally Posted by Tiny

https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/the-pa...erican-worker/


According to the economist Miguel Faria e Castro at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the number of retirees as a percentage of the U.S. population had been stable at 15.5% during the decade before 2008. But 2008 was the first year that baby boomers could collect social security, and the percentage of retirees began its rise.

Jump ahead to March 2020 and the first weeks of the pandemic, and the percentage of boomers retiring increased as older employees were pushed to the side or opted for retirement as the economy shut down.

This rush to the exits resulted in 3 million “excess” retirements, which according to Faria e Castro “is more than half of the 5.25 million people who left the labor force from the beginning of the pandemic to the second quarter of 2021.”

'''According to the economist Miguel Faria e Castro at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the number of retirees as a percentage of the U.S. population had been stable at 15.5% during the decade before 2008. But 2008 was the first year that baby boomers could collect social security, and the percentage of retirees began its rise.

Jump ahead to March 2020 and the first weeks of the pandemic, and the percentage of boomers retiring increased as older employees were pushed to the side or opted for retirement as the economy shut down.

This rush to the exits resulted in 3 million “excess” retirements, which according to Faria e Castro “is more than half of the 5.25 million people who left the labor force from the beginning of the pandemic to the second quarter of 2021.” Originally Posted by WTF

Funny you mention that point. I was debating that topic with one of my kiddos a while back. They pointed out that the boomer retiring has been a foreseeable fact for a long, long time. Baked in the cake, so not a surprise.

They also pointed out that the covid mainly targeted the same demographic initially and therefore shutting down the economy would have the impact you mentioned. In essence, the escalation was exacerbated by the shutdowns and was entirely predictable by economists and would be unforeseen by the medical types, i.e scientists. Not their lane, so to speak.

Therein lies the rub -- When you have Doctors making calls about the economy and shutting it all down, it's a recipe for disaster (as we now know). Would you go to your financial advisor to treat a broken arm?

Only fools are afraid at this point in time - IMHO.
Free schtuff for everybody.
Or is there something else at play here?? Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

It's real. The disease affects peoples organs, and in some cases the effects linger. I know too many people who have it. My son's pediatrician says a number of her patients have it.

As far as not working because you think you'll be exposed to COVID, I say bollocks. Strap on an N95 or KN95 mask and get back to work.

https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/the-pa...erican-worker/


According to the economist Miguel Faria e Castro at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the number of retirees as a percentage of the U.S. population had been stable at 15.5% during the decade before 2008. But 2008 was the first year that baby boomers could collect social security, and the percentage of retirees began its rise.

Jump ahead to March 2020 and the first weeks of the pandemic, and the percentage of boomers retiring increased as older employees were pushed to the side or opted for retirement as the economy shut down.

This rush to the exits resulted in 3 million “excess” retirements, which according to Faria e Castro “is more than half of the 5.25 million people who left the labor force from the beginning of the pandemic to the second quarter of 2021.” Originally Posted by WTF

You've mentioned this before. I think it's a weak argument. The size of the prospective work force has grown and will continue to grow, although not as fast as in the past. Children and grandchildren of baby boomers are replacing them in the workforce.

About the "step change" that occurred -- COVID sounds like a better explanation than a bunch of baby boomers all deciding to retire at the same time. Although yeah, maybe the two effects are linked for some of the population.

Only discernible difference I sense between the flu and the covid is that the covid is more of a blood disease (micro clots) and it seems to go after the immune system (HIV-ishly). Nothing has been stopping me from working. You wanna wear a face diaper - you wear a face diaper. I've taught myself not to laugh at or ridicule those that do in public. (wasn't easy at first ;-)

It's real. The disease affects peoples organs, and in some cases the effects linger. I know too many people who have it. My son's pediatrician says a number of her patients have it.

As far as not working because you think you'll be exposed to COVID, I say bollocks. Strap on an N95 or KN95 mask and get back to work. Originally Posted by Tiny

You wanna wear a face diaper - you wear a face diaper. Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

It's not that I want to... But considering the frequence and volume of shit that spews from my mouth, probably best for me and those in close quarters.

It's not that I want to... But considering the frequence and volume of shit that spews from my mouth, probably best for me and those in close quarters. Originally Posted by Chung Tran

Maybe you need two for your key board?? <-- OK, that shit right there was funny

You wanna wear a face diaper - you wear a face diaper. I've taught myself not to laugh at or ridicule those that do in public. (wasn't easy at first ;-) Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

No wonder you can't get laid. The most attractive women in the Austin area are left-of-center types and prefer men who protect others and themselves with well-fitting N95 and KN95 masks. Now admittedly my aviator goggles were overkill, but I see no downside to the masks. That's as long as you're not a big fan of kissing and oral sex, which are highly overrated anyway.

kissing and oral sex, which are highly overrated anyway. Originally Posted by Tiny

They are underrated. Foreplay is essential..

For me, anyway. You're a Fourplay guy. You walk in (at 4:00), stick your 4 inches in (you named yourself ''Tiny'' for a reason), and leave after cumming in four minutes.

You go home and play this album.. 12 Play.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fZ75oJEcGWA

To celebrate the 3 ladies you fucked that morning. 3 Fucks in 12 minutes. Good God I envy you.