Let The COVID19 Run Thru The Population

  • Tiny
  • 03-22-2020, 10:35 AM
Calm down. Most households have a test kit, it's called a thermometer. The 3% death rate is not believable. We may never know the real rate. I'm apprehensive about the number of infections given the credo "You may have it but never show the symptoms."

We can't practice social distancing for a year. Let the virus run thru the population. Waiting months for a treatment or a vaccine will be disastrous economically and socially.

There is no corroborated number that I've seen that sways me. Again, if kids were dying in significant numbers I'd change my thinking but they don't appear to be. Not in China, Italy or the US.

BTW, I'm surprised IBM is still around. Originally Posted by gnadfly
I usually agree with your posts. And yes 3% is high. I'm not sure where you're coming from on this though. Letting this run through the population and doing nothing is pretty fatalistic. It would be like Italy times 10.

China leveled out its cases at a low level compared to the population. Their factories are operating again and economy is improving. If we do the same we buy time until we have a vaccine.

We should be approaching vaccine development like we did the atomic bomb in World War II -- get it done and get it done fast. Also getting people tested, traced and isolated. The cost will be a drop in the bucket compared to everything else.
LexusLover's Avatar
China leveled out its cases at a low level compared to the population. Their factories are operating again and economy is improving. Originally Posted by Tiny
And you know this how?
  • oeb11
  • 03-22-2020, 10:44 AM
We let the Influenza a virus "run through the population: - it is very likely a higher morbidity and mortality disease than the Wuhan virus. Iitaly has a much higher proportion of older people, and the vst majority of fatalities are those over 65 and those with significant underlying disease processes.

The fatality- or mortality- rate of 3% is overestimated - see the article by Dr. Ioaniddis in this forum.

The people infected with Wuhan virus, but asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic, or symptomatic and not tested - are not counted - and decrease the mortality rate very significantly.



Again - read the Ioaniddis article.


i do not believe the Wuhan virus numbers reported by China or Russia - both are unbelieveably low - and reflect their authoritarian/totalitarian government propaganda rather than honest epidemiologic reporting. IMHO!
  • Tiny
  • 03-22-2020, 11:31 AM
And you know this how? Originally Posted by LexusLover
Maybe the Chinese are lying like oeb says. If not it's true. Scroll down below to see the graphs -- China's cases have leveled out.

China (population 1.4 billion):

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/china/

Italy (population 60 million):

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/italy/
HedonistForever's Avatar
All of a sudden the "it's my body and I'll do with it what I want" crowd, wants to be like China with armed forces roaming the streets forcing people back inside whether they can feed themselves or not. While I don't for a minute believe anything that comes out of the Chinese dictatorship ( Yes Mike Bloomberg, China is a dictatorship ) I wonder how many shuttered persons have died.


I'm reading in the paper this morning that "you don't have to go to the grocery store, you can have everything you need delivered to your door", is fast becoming a fallacy. Amazon now says that can't guarantee any delivery time and what you want may not be available if they could get it to you. Same with large grocery chains "sorry, that item is unavailable".


Here in Miami, the largest grocery store chain will now have it's first hour of operation for those 65 and over which is me! Now maybe I can buy a fucking roll of toilet paper.


Finally being an old fart will pay off..... maybe, if I don't have to fight off all those wheel chairs, walkers and canes.
LexusLover's Avatar
The shortage is fake. The commercial end has warehouses crammed full of paper and food products they are not allowed to deliver. Restaurants/eateries that can no longer serve are selling paper products and nonperishables like convenience stores .... locally (Houston metro) I personally know of two rather well-known eating spots.

There is plenty of food .... there is also some serious gouging ongoing!
SpeedRacerXXX's Avatar
Since we are self-quarantined for another week, up until now we have depended on a family member to bring us certain goods from the store. Tomorrow, after waiting a week, we get to pick up an order from HEB. No toilet paper and no paper towels.

This will be our lives for a while. Maybe the shortage is a "fake" but what I do know is I can't get those products quickly through any store in the area.
  • oeb11
  • 03-22-2020, 02:09 PM
https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/gov-...lies-in-texas/


Gov. Abbott, A.G. issue warning against price-gouging of medical supplies in Texas

AUSTIN (KXAN) — Texas Governor Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton issued a warning this week to anyone caught price-gouging medical supplies during the potential threat of coronavirus in the state.
“Price-gouging is un-Texan and will not be tolerated in our state,” read the joint statement. “The state of Texas will work to ensure that anyone who engages in this act is held to account. It is essential that the public has access to health and wellness supplies that can help mitigate any potential spread. We will work to combat any attempt to exploit public health and safety for monetary gain.”
The release reports Gov. Abbott could potentially declare Chapter 418 of the Texas Government code — which gives the Attorney General Paxton broader powers to prosecute cases — if there are extensive reports of price-gouging.


According to the Centers for Disease Control, there are eight cases of Covid-19 (coronavirus) in Texas as of Sunday evening. The number doesn’t include repatriation cases in Texas under quarantine at San Antonio’s Lackland Air Force base.




Texans who suspect a case of price-gouging in connection to the potential coronavirus threat should file a consumer complaint.
dilbert firestorm's Avatar
the shortage maybe fake, but it does take some time for the supplies to move from one warehouse depot to a distribution center and then to the stores.


the truckers are the real super heroes here.
dilbert firestorm's Avatar
theres no such thing as price gouging except for the pharma industry.
  • oeb11
  • 03-22-2020, 03:14 PM
An NBC article on the Russia Wuhan virus statistics!
Russia's low infection numbers viewed skeptically as demand grows for more action

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...Jkj?li=BBnb4R7


MOSCOW — Judging by the official numbers, Russia can boast of having one of the most effective coronavirus responses in the world, with 367 confirmed cases as of Sunday. According to the data, none of them have been fatal.
This isn't for lack of testing. Russian government officials say they have run over 140,000 tests. By comparison, the U.S. has reported over 25,000 positive results from a similar number of tests, according to tracking by Johns Hopkins University.
But while Russian officials attribute the low numbers to aggressive border controls and closings, some experts caution that the actual infection rates may be much higher, with the government of President Vladimir Putin intent on maintaining an image of calm authority, regardless of what may actually be happening on the ground.
At a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday, Putin declared the situation to be "generally under control."
© Alexander Nemenov Image: Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech in Sevastopol, Crimea. "Thanks to prompt measures taken proactively ... in the first weeks of the epidemic, we managed to contain the massive — I would like to underscore — massive penetration and spread of the infection in Russia," Putin said.

The early measures were drastic.
After reports of outbreaks of the coronavirus in China in January, Russia swiftly closed its large land border and, in February, banned entry of all Chinese citizens. More recent efforts focused on quarantining foreigners entering from coronavirus hot spots.
But Ivan Konovalov, a spokesman for the Doctors' Alliance, a professional organization loosely aligned with the Russian opposition that has gained attention by highlighting problems in the health system, says these measures may not have effectively blocked the disease.
Instead, authorities are most likely using pneumonia as a cover for coronavirus cases, he said.
"According to a few accounts, a portion of the coronavirus cases are being masked as so-called community-transmitted pneumonia," he told NBC News. "Patients are diagnosed with 'pneumonia' without being tested for coronavirus, which could have caused it."
On March 13, Russia's state statistics agency reported a 37 percent increase in pneumonia cases in Moscow, the capital, in January over the same month last year.
However, the Moscow government issued a contradictory statement later that day, saying there was, rather, a 7 percent drop in cases in January 2020.
Officials from Russia's Rospotrebnadzor consumer safety group, which is taking the lead on coronavirus testing and data keeping, did not respond to NBC News' request for comment. Neither did Moscow health department officials.
Dr. Samuel Greene, an expert on Russia at King's College in London, said that while he "hopes" the Russian government's measures have kept the numbers down, he believes journalistic and anecdotal evidence points to an infection rate that is "probably higher, perhaps significantly."
"The idea that Russia has somehow been able to insulate itself from this" plays into "a line that Putin's political team have used for a long time that Russia is an island of stability," he said.
Putin is set to consolidate his power even further on April 22, when the country is scheduled to hold a national referendum on constitutional amendments that would allow him to remain president until 2036.
While the government has sought to hammer home a sense of calm and control, there is a growing feeling among the public and civil society that a larger problem is brewing beneath the surface of the official numbers.

Some experts have questioned the competency of Russia's coronavirus tests — currently provided by a single lab in Siberia. An investigation by an online medical science publication, PCR News, reported that the official numbers may be low because the test may not be detecting mild cases.
"It is a matter of sensitivity," Aleksey Torgashev, editor-in-chief of PCR and one of the authors of the report, told NBC News. "The guaranteed lower limit of the test is 100,000 plasmids per milliliter. The sensitivity of other modern tests is two orders of magnitude higher."
Until this week, this test was the only one approved for use by the state consumer safety and health watchdog. Now, newer and more sensitive tests have been approved, but Torgashev says this is a slow process, and for the moment the Siberian test is the only one in use.
"We do not know the real epidemiological situation of coronavirus in the country," he said. "It may turn out to be the same as the official data, or it may be completely different."
On top of test sensitivity, Russia's testing strategy continues to focus on tracking cases coming into the country — now limited mostly to Russians returning from abroad — and those they have come in contact with, as well as pneumonia patients.
While insisting the situation remains under control, Russian authorities last week began to drastically increase measures to contain the virus. On Wednesday, Russia banned the entry of all foreigners — with a few exceptions — and placed strict limits on public gatherings. On Saturday, gyms and pools were ordered closed.
But, witnessing the scale of the crisis in the U.S., Europe, and Asia, some Russians are increasingly concerned the government is downplaying the threat and not doing enough. The streets of Moscow — though still busy —are slowly emptying, as are store shelves.
The Moscow Transport Department reported on March 20 that metro traffic was down 30 percent, and buses and trolleys were likewise seeing a 24 percent drop in traffic. Reports of runs on buckwheat, a Russian staple, have prompted talk of price controls.
Though the government appears hesitant — for the moment — to impose enforced lockdowns, an increasing number of businesses and citizens are taking it upon themselves to enforce social distancing measures, even as the officials continue to encourage a general calm.
"Really I'm just self-isolating because we were asked to work from home," says Olga Kuzmina, 30, a communications consultant in Moscow.
"Otherwise I'm not taking it that seriously, still going outside for walks and trips to the grocery store every other day. If the infection rates really are as low as they say, then Moscow officials at least seem to be acting according to common sense."
Yet some are asking for the government to take swifter, and stronger, action.
"If we do not want the Italian scenario, urgent measures are needed," reads a petition on Change.org, submitted on March 20, calling on the government to enact stricter measures to fight the virus.
Citing foreign examples, the petition states that "the number of infected people drastically exceeds the official data, and depending on the quality of the testing, can reach into the thousands or even tens of thousands of people."
Since Friday, the petition has drawn over 85,000 signatures ranging from citizens to prominent journalists, doctors, politicians and other civil society figures. And there are signs the government may opt for a stronger response as Russians warm to the idea.
In an interview on the government-funded TV network RT that aired March 20, the head of one of Moscow's infectious disease hospitals tasked with treating coronavirus patients told viewers that Russia faced two outcomes.
"I look at what is happening around the world," Dr. Denis Protsenko said. "If we follow the Chinese scenario, then I hope this will be over in May or June. If we follow the Italian explosion, we can consider September to be a good scenario."
Matthew Bodner reported from Moscow, Luke Denne reported from London.


similar situation in China - which has every incentive to cover up - which they already did at the beginning in Wuhan when public health measures could have controlled the virus.

But NO- the Chinese communist party Lied- and fascist DPST idiots choose to believe russia and China over Trump because it fits their TDS and Trump hatred. Despite having the full buy-in of fauci, Birx , and other medical leadership and authority figures.

Wanna sell the Brooklyn Bridge - go find a Fascist DPST - they are gullible as hell when it fits their narrative.
  • oeb11
  • 03-22-2020, 03:14 PM
An NBC article on the Russia Wuhan virus statistics!
Russia's low infection numbers viewed skeptically as demand grows for more action

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...Jkj?li=BBnb4R7


MOSCOW — Judging by the official numbers, Russia can boast of having one of the most effective coronavirus responses in the world, with 367 confirmed cases as of Sunday. According to the data, none of them have been fatal.
This isn't for lack of testing. Russian government officials say they have run over 140,000 tests. By comparison, the U.S. has reported over 25,000 positive results from a similar number of tests, according to tracking by Johns Hopkins University.
But while Russian officials attribute the low numbers to aggressive border controls and closings, some experts caution that the actual infection rates may be much higher, with the government of President Vladimir Putin intent on maintaining an image of calm authority, regardless of what may actually be happening on the ground.
At a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday, Putin declared the situation to be "generally under control."
© Alexander Nemenov Image: Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech in Sevastopol, Crimea. "Thanks to prompt measures taken proactively ... in the first weeks of the epidemic, we managed to contain the massive — I would like to underscore — massive penetration and spread of the infection in Russia," Putin said.

The early measures were drastic.
After reports of outbreaks of the coronavirus in China in January, Russia swiftly closed its large land border and, in February, banned entry of all Chinese citizens. More recent efforts focused on quarantining foreigners entering from coronavirus hot spots.
But Ivan Konovalov, a spokesman for the Doctors' Alliance, a professional organization loosely aligned with the Russian opposition that has gained attention by highlighting problems in the health system, says these measures may not have effectively blocked the disease.
Instead, authorities are most likely using pneumonia as a cover for coronavirus cases, he said.
"According to a few accounts, a portion of the coronavirus cases are being masked as so-called community-transmitted pneumonia," he told NBC News. "Patients are diagnosed with 'pneumonia' without being tested for coronavirus, which could have caused it."
On March 13, Russia's state statistics agency reported a 37 percent increase in pneumonia cases in Moscow, the capital, in January over the same month last year.
However, the Moscow government issued a contradictory statement later that day, saying there was, rather, a 7 percent drop in cases in January 2020.
Officials from Russia's Rospotrebnadzor consumer safety group, which is taking the lead on coronavirus testing and data keeping, did not respond to NBC News' request for comment. Neither did Moscow health department officials.
Dr. Samuel Greene, an expert on Russia at King's College in London, said that while he "hopes" the Russian government's measures have kept the numbers down, he believes journalistic and anecdotal evidence points to an infection rate that is "probably higher, perhaps significantly."
"The idea that Russia has somehow been able to insulate itself from this" plays into "a line that Putin's political team have used for a long time that Russia is an island of stability," he said.
Putin is set to consolidate his power even further on April 22, when the country is scheduled to hold a national referendum on constitutional amendments that would allow him to remain president until 2036.
While the government has sought to hammer home a sense of calm and control, there is a growing feeling among the public and civil society that a larger problem is brewing beneath the surface of the official numbers.

Some experts have questioned the competency of Russia's coronavirus tests — currently provided by a single lab in Siberia. An investigation by an online medical science publication, PCR News, reported that the official numbers may be low because the test may not be detecting mild cases.
"It is a matter of sensitivity," Aleksey Torgashev, editor-in-chief of PCR and one of the authors of the report, told NBC News. "The guaranteed lower limit of the test is 100,000 plasmids per milliliter. The sensitivity of other modern tests is two orders of magnitude higher."
Until this week, this test was the only one approved for use by the state consumer safety and health watchdog. Now, newer and more sensitive tests have been approved, but Torgashev says this is a slow process, and for the moment the Siberian test is the only one in use.
"We do not know the real epidemiological situation of coronavirus in the country," he said. "It may turn out to be the same as the official data, or it may be completely different."
On top of test sensitivity, Russia's testing strategy continues to focus on tracking cases coming into the country — now limited mostly to Russians returning from abroad — and those they have come in contact with, as well as pneumonia patients.
While insisting the situation remains under control, Russian authorities last week began to drastically increase measures to contain the virus. On Wednesday, Russia banned the entry of all foreigners — with a few exceptions — and placed strict limits on public gatherings. On Saturday, gyms and pools were ordered closed.
But, witnessing the scale of the crisis in the U.S., Europe, and Asia, some Russians are increasingly concerned the government is downplaying the threat and not doing enough. The streets of Moscow — though still busy —are slowly emptying, as are store shelves.
The Moscow Transport Department reported on March 20 that metro traffic was down 30 percent, and buses and trolleys were likewise seeing a 24 percent drop in traffic. Reports of runs on buckwheat, a Russian staple, have prompted talk of price controls.
Though the government appears hesitant — for the moment — to impose enforced lockdowns, an increasing number of businesses and citizens are taking it upon themselves to enforce social distancing measures, even as the officials continue to encourage a general calm.
"Really I'm just self-isolating because we were asked to work from home," says Olga Kuzmina, 30, a communications consultant in Moscow.
"Otherwise I'm not taking it that seriously, still going outside for walks and trips to the grocery store every other day. If the infection rates really are as low as they say, then Moscow officials at least seem to be acting according to common sense."
Yet some are asking for the government to take swifter, and stronger, action.
"If we do not want the Italian scenario, urgent measures are needed," reads a petition on Change.org, submitted on March 20, calling on the government to enact stricter measures to fight the virus.
Citing foreign examples, the petition states that "the number of infected people drastically exceeds the official data, and depending on the quality of the testing, can reach into the thousands or even tens of thousands of people."
Since Friday, the petition has drawn over 85,000 signatures ranging from citizens to prominent journalists, doctors, politicians and other civil society figures. And there are signs the government may opt for a stronger response as Russians warm to the idea.
In an interview on the government-funded TV network RT that aired March 20, the head of one of Moscow's infectious disease hospitals tasked with treating coronavirus patients told viewers that Russia faced two outcomes.
"I look at what is happening around the world," Dr. Denis Protsenko said. "If we follow the Chinese scenario, then I hope this will be over in May or June. If we follow the Italian explosion, we can consider September to be a good scenario."
Matthew Bodner reported from Moscow, Luke Denne reported from London.


similar situation in China - which has every incentive to cover up - which they already did at the beginning in Wuhan when public health measures could have controlled the virus.

But NO- the Chinese communist party Lied- and fascist DPST idiots choose to believe russia and China over Trump because it fits their TDS and Trump hatred. Despite having the full buy-in of fauci, Birx , and other medical leadership and authority figures.

Wanna sell the Brooklyn Bridge - go find a Fascist DPST - they are gullible as hell when it fits their narrative.
  • oeb11
  • 03-22-2020, 03:16 PM
Bloomberg just posted an article that two Nigerians are hospitalized for chloroquine OD because Trump praised the drug - and "made then do it" - so Trump is a murderer.



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...p-praised-drug


Thanks - Bloomberg - with your China businesses - which made u billions - care to explain that U have not enabled China to spread the virus to the world????
Fascist DPST hypocrisy!
I suspect no one in this thread holds power, Thank God. It's OK to think this idea. It's OK to say this idea. It's the thinking of simpletons that have no idea about biology, virology. immunology or epidemiology. I just say it. This is a stupid idea and only simple minded people would give it any credibility. That's all.
  • oeb11
  • 03-22-2020, 04:41 PM
bd - One might get a response if One would elucidate what "this idea" entails!!!