The 2020 Presidential Election

Ha! Love your 4-legged chair analogy. The only thing about that is Trump does better on one leg then most Presidents with 4 legs! But keep trying! Oh by the way - The Republicans are keeping the Senate in 2020. Just like they did in 2018. Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

2018 was a fairly easy outcome to predict. 2020 is a bit more difficult.

It will be difficult for Democrats to take control of the Senate in 2020. Many of the Republican Senators up for re-election are in solid red states. Jones will be an underdog in Alabama. I would say, at this point in time, a gain of maybe 2 seats for the Democrats would be the most they could do.

On the other hand, the House will stay Democratic with a good chance for a gaining a few more seats.

If Trump is doing so well, why don't Americans think so? Approval rating still in the low to mid 40s, never as high as 50, but there have been some polls recently which get him to 45%. Keep the faith and keep shaking those pom poms.

I challenge you to find any reputable economist in this country who believes the imposition of tariffs was the correct move to make. Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Who do you think formulated the tariffs, monkeys?

The tariffs were formulated by a whole team of economists led by Peter Navarro, PhD.

I respect your views but sometimes I think you've taken leave of your senses.

Oh I think those approval ratings will change in the next 12 months towards the positive when American's know who the Dem challenger will be. This obstruction delusion ( Elizabeth Warren comes to mind) they have with Trump is going to tear their party in half. And now their just plain stalking Trump. Americans have other things on their mind besides this rehashing of a nothing burger. All they have is bash Trump. They can't bash his handling of the economy. So they go after his character. It's like you go to a hospital to have surgery and the surgeon is a walking character defect. ie. egotistical,self-centered,vain,ect. And you hate him but he knows how to do the surgery and achieve the effects that you want from the surgery. The other choice is a modest,very nice surgeon,however,this surgery would be his first one. He's done this surgery before but only on cadavers never a live human being and he would be honored to perform this surgery on you. Now, I think the choice is a no-brainer. I think other Americans will too.

2018 was a fairly easy outcome to predict. 2020 is a bit more difficult.

It will be difficult for Democrats to take control of the Senate in 2020. Many of the Republican Senators up for re-election are in solid red states. Jones will be an underdog in Alabama. I would say, at this point in time, a gain of maybe 2 seats for the Democrats would be the most they could do.

On the other hand, the House will stay Democratic with a good chance for a gaining a few more seats.

If Trump is doing so well, why don't Americans think so? Approval rating still in the low to mid 40s, never as high as 50, but there have been some polls recently which get him to 45%. Keep the faith and keep shaking those pom poms. Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

The invasion at our southern border has appeared as the #1 concern in almost every poll taken since January. No one is happy about it, yet the Dems keep flaunting any attempt by the administration to stop it and will do nothing to help fix the problem. In fact, they refuse to appropriate the necessary funds to house the so-called refugees. I believe they are kidding themselves if they think this constant obstruction won't cost them serious votes in 2020.

And remember, Trump's ratings were low before the 2016 election, but he still got elected. Hang in there Ellen! The only things I've heard from the opposition in this thread are Democrat talking points.

A friend of mine just came across the border at Laredo two days ago...his was the only car. Took him 6 seconds to be waved in. Looked pretty dead. So, where are all these imigrants? El Paso? Brownsville?

... This obstruction delusion ( Elizabeth Warren comes to mind) they have with Trump is going to tear their party in half. ... Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

It is not a delusion.
People are constantly taking the report about it out of context. Prime example was AG Barr(sp) in front of Congress the other day. He was on live TV doing such. Along with other omissions of truth and such.

An AG is held to a higher standard. He has repeatedly displayed a lack of holding himself to such.

I was too young to appeciate Watergate. I am glad I have an interest in how the Third Estate operates now. Especially since it still has some ability to expose what is going on.

Who do you think formulated the tariffs, monkeys?

The tariffs were formulated by a whole team of economists led by Peter Navarro, PhD.

I respect your views but sometimes I think you've taken leave of your senses. Originally Posted by pussycat

I had not heard of Navarro until you mentioned him but from what I read he is not a well-respected economist and it is only due his similar viewpoints with Trump that he is where he is.

"But economists on both the left and the right say that Navarro’s fundamental views of trade are outdated, misguided, or just plain wrong.

Navarro’s revanchism has made him few friends among Washington’s economic experts, trade experts, and Asia experts. Yet it paved his way into the administration, where he has found a boss simpatico with even his most outlandish positions. The president and his trade adviser also share personality traits that may have helped Navarro ingratiate himself with his notoriously mercurial patron. “If Trump wasn’t the biggest asshole in Washington, Peter could be,” says Larry Remer, a San Diego political operative who worked on Navarro’s congressional campaign. He is indelicate, to put it mildly."

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine...-trade/573913/

Tariffs have cost the people in this country many millions of dollars in total.

https://tradepartnership.com/wp-cont...tudy-FINAL.pdf

The invasion at our southern border has appeared as the #1 concern in almost every poll taken since January. No one is happy about it, yet the Dems keep flaunting any attempt by the administration to stop it and will do nothing to help fix the problem. In fact, they refuse to appropriate the necessary funds to house the so-called refugees. I believe they are kidding themselves if they think this constant obstruction won't cost them serious votes in 2020.

And remember, Trump's ratings were low before the 2016 election, but he still got elected. Hang in there Ellen! The only things I've heard from the opposition in this thread are Democrat talking points. Originally Posted by Low-T

Approval ratings taken right after the 2016 election (January 2017) and those taken in early 2019 show a significant drop in approval rating. At election, his approval rating was about 48% and today about 43%.

What is more important is how approval ratings in states that brought Trump victory in 2016 have changed. -19% in Michigan, -17% in Pennsylvania, -18% in Wisconsin, -26% in Arizona, -24% in Florida. If Trump loses any 3 of those states in 2020 he more than likely loses the election.

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

Regarding immigration:

Yes, Democrats have to come up with a well-defined proposal for 2019-2020. So far everything Trump has done has failed. And unfortunately no one should believe what Trump says about the immigration mess since he rarely tells the truth.

"But there are signs that immigration may not be the soft, white underbelly for Democrats that headlines and talking heads would have us believe. A Washington Post-ABC poll released Tuesday suggests that voters are still allergic to Trump’s draconian approach—the wall remains extremely unpopular, with two voters opposing it for every one who supports it. Additionally, the survey demonstrates an openness to immigration proposals that move beyond “securing” (and presumably further militarizing) the border."

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...cument-1-23-19

Trump just asked Congress for $4.5 billion to aid in the crisis:

"President Donald Trump on Wednesday asked Congress for $4.5 billion in emergency aid to address the surge of Central American immigrants at the U.S.-Mexico border.

The funding request is the first major move by the White House to respond to what it calls a “humanitarian crisis” at the Southern border and intensifies an ongoing funding battle over border security, just four months after the issue led to a paralyzing 35-day government shutdown."

None of this money would go towards building a wall. The request is being looked at. This issue is critical for both Trump and Democrats heading into the 2020 elections.

Oh I think those approval ratings will change in the next 12 months towards the positive when American's know who the Dem challenger will be. This obstruction delusion ( Elizabeth Warren comes to mind) they have with Trump is going to tear their party in half. And now their just plain stalking Trump. Americans have other things on their mind besides this rehashing of a nothing burger. All they have is bash Trump. They can't bash his handling of the economy. So they go after his character. . Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

Again with the economy as the only factor in play. Have you forgotten about the 4-legged stool analogy already? What about health care? Trump has done nothing. What about immigration? Crisis at the border for which Trump has no answer. Then finally his character. This is NOT a one issue election in 2020.

As for his approval ratings improving -- he is the only POTUS in history who has never had an approval rating reach 50%. Depending on whether one looks at FiveThirtyEight or RealClearPolitics, Trump's approval ratings are in the 42%-43% range. It will be interesting to see if they change. The Mueller investigation ending did little to help Trump.

I had not heard of Navarro until you mentioned him but from what I read he is not a well-respected economist and it is only due his similar viewpoints with Trump that he is where he is.

"But economists on both the left and the right say that Navarro’s fundamental views of trade are outdated, misguided, or just plain wrong.

Navarro’s revanchism has made him few friends among Washington’s economic experts, trade experts, and Asia experts. Yet it paved his way into the administration, where he has found a boss simpatico with even his most outlandish positions. The president and his trade adviser also share personality traits that may have helped Navarro ingratiate himself with his notoriously mercurial patron. “If Trump wasn’t the biggest asshole in Washington, Peter could be,” says Larry Remer, a San Diego political operative who worked on Navarro’s congressional campaign. He is indelicate, to put it mildly."

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine...-trade/573913/

Tariffs have cost the people in this country many millions of dollars in total.

https://tradepartnership.com/wp-cont...tudy-FINAL.pdf Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Dude you talk about economics as though it's a real science or something. It's not.

If you knew the topic as I do (Plan II/MS in economics UT) you would know that macro economics is a pseudo science, with no real orthodoxies or conventions.

Fortunately in the last decade there is a rebellion among new graduate students in different Universities because of the failure of traditional models to explain such things as the crash of 2008 (or any recession for that matter).

As for trade at MIT there is a group of counter-free-traders who have turned the neo-liberal and free traders on their heads.

Your assumption that there are "reputable" economists and implying that new schools of thought are "disreputable" is untrue.

Economics is in tremendous flux and those at MIT and Cambridge and Oxford who are now dissidents will be the conventional thinkers of the future.

Navarro is a genius.

Trump is a genius.

As of today we have the lowest unemployment since 1969.

That required a team which was intelligent enough to go against the crowd of mediocre dumbasses you think of as "reputable."

Dude you talk about economics as though it's a real science or something. It's not.

If you knew the topic as I do (Plan II/MS in economics UT) you would know that macro economics is a pseudo science, with no real orthodoxies or conventions.

Fortunately in the last decade there is a rebellion among new graduate students in different Universities because of the failure of traditional models to explain such things as the crash of 2008 (or any recession for that matter).

As for trade at MIT there is a group of counter-free-traders who have turned the neo-liberal and free traders on their heads.

Your assumption that there are "reputable" economists and implying that new schools of thought are "disreputable" is untrue.

Economics is in tremendous flux and those at MIT and Cambridge and Oxford who are now dissidents will be the conventional thinkers of the future.

Navarro is a genius.

Trump is a genius.

As of today we have the lowest unemployment since 1969.

That required a team which was intelligent enough to go against the crowd of mediocre dumbasses you think of as "reputable."


Originally Posted by pussycat

I do know that tariffs do not work and have cost people, like me, in this country a great deal of money.

You don't need an MS in economics to understand that fact.

Now this thread is getting back on track. This is real discussion with research included. But, I still say Trump will win.

Now this thread is getting back on track. This is real discussion with research included. But, I still say Trump will win. Originally Posted by Low-T

Very possible. I put it at 50-50 right now. Why do you think Trump will win at this point in time?

Just from previous elections: Reagan got a second term because the economy was in good shape by election time. He had a hard go in the first two years, but turned it around in time. Bush 1 did not get reelected because the economy was good when he took over, but got worse by the next election. Clinton got a second term because he had a good economy by the second term, regardless of accusations by women, talk of impeachment, and Hilary's Whitewater scandal. Bush 2 got a second term because of a good economy, regardless of the Fake News' constant attacks on how stupid he was. Obama got a second term because the Fake news would not utter a negative word against him. They still ignore the facts of Fast & Furious, Obama Care (keep your own doctor), IRS Abuse against conservatives, Benghazi, and Veterans Affairs (holding back on proper healthcare.) If history stays consistant, Trump will win for 2 main reasons: Good economy and voter disenchantment with how the Dems are ignoring the crisis at the border. Fake News has done everything in its power to keep his numbers down and will double-down by the next election. It is costing them heavily in profits because it is so obvious that even the far left go to other sources for unbiased reporting. Trump has maintained his base and I think has picked up more independents than before. I guess we will see by November 2020.

Just from previous elections: Reagan got a second term because the economy was in good shape by election time. He had a hard go in the first two years, but turned it around in time. Bush 1 did not get reelected because the economy was good when he took over, but got worse by the next election. Clinton got a second term because he had a good economy by the second term, regardless of accusations by women, talk of impeachment, and Hilary's Whitewater scandal. Bush 2 got a second term because of a good economy, regardless of the Fake News' constant attacks on how stupid he was. Obama got a second term because the Fake news would not utter a negative word against him. They still ignore the facts of Fast & Furious, Obama Care (keep your own doctor), IRS Abuse against conservatives, Benghazi, and Veterans Affairs (holding back on proper healthcare.) If history stays consistant, Trump will win for 2 main reasons: Good economy and voter disenchantment with how the Dems are ignoring the crisis at the border. Fake News has done everything in its power to keep his numbers down and will double-down by the next election. It is costing them heavily in profits because it is so obvious that even the far left go to other sources for unbiased reporting. Trump has maintained his base and I think has picked up more independents than before. I guess we will see by November 2020. Originally Posted by Low-T

Thanks for the response. I may disagree with you as far as Trump winning in 2020 but most of your points are valid.