How are we going to pay for all this shit?

Well then quit acting like one... Originally Posted by WTF

He isn’t.

Well then quit acting like one... Originally Posted by WTF

i am but a humble citizen activist doing my civic duty to the eccie community.


bhahahahaaaaaa

post more bullshit and find out. Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

Remind us again how Taiwan has anything to do with out of control inflation and falling living standards in the US. I must have slipped on the condom I on used on your muther. I'm still picking her nipple hair outta my teeth Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

I used the somewhat generic term muther fuckers and you resort to personal insults. Fire away but you look kinda boorish.

Taiwan...now there is an interesting case study in pandemic response....maybe you should compare our response vs theirs. I'm sure you'll find a good conspiracy theory in there somewhere.

I used the somewhat generic term muther fuckers and you resort to personal insults. Fire away but you look kinda boorish.

Taiwan...now there is an interesting case study in pandemic response....maybe you should compare our response vs theirs. I'm sure you'll find a good conspiracy theory in there somewhere. Originally Posted by WTF

Calling someone a “muther fucker” is a personal attack. And racist. Because you’re trying to act like something you’re not. According to you, “you’re an old white guy”. Your words. So you speak Ebonics? Take another step back. Or just quit the site. You’re making an ass out of yourself. But, from past experience, you’re good with that.

Taiwan...now there is an interesting case study in pandemic response....maybe you should compare our response vs theirs. I'm sure you'll find a good conspiracy theory in there somewhere. Originally Posted by WTF

Start another thread if you find the topic so interesting. This thread is dedicated to beating you up on economics, not pandemics.

Just proclaim bankruptcy. We’re there already.,

Start another thread if you find the topic so interesting. This thread is dedicated to beating you up on economics, not pandemics. Originally Posted by lustylad

This topic was brought up by another poster...you.

You mentioned how well Taiwan handled the pandemic. So you want to go off topic only when it suits you?

Once off topic you muther fuckers could not even agree about the pandemic being the cause of all this supply chain disruption.

I would throw one bone your way in that LL accidentally made a glaring contradiction with saying the covid was not responsible. It was the impetuous to bad decision making on item #2 above. It also shows the disastrous unintended consequences of the government putting the brakes on to a roaring economy.
Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

We have proven that it was Trump who threw on the brakes in March of 2020 on our economy despite your denial of the fact and your wanting to turn the conversation to mothers.

So lustylad and you want to reelect the person who orginally shutdown our economy and compared to a country lustylad brought up...Taiwan, Trump handled his shutdown horribly.

I would ask bambino why he thinks muther fucker is racist but I'm sure he'll try and tie it to another conspiracy theory election fraud thread.

I used the somewhat generic term muther fuckers and you resort to personal insults... Originally Posted by WTF

Oh, I C, muther fuckers is what you use to be sociable in your community?!?

Taiwan...now there is an interesting case study in pandemic response... Originally Posted by WTF

And the price of tea in China is just as relevant to this thread as Taiwan is.

From 4 weeks ago:

Just within the last day we've seen our esteemed Slumberer-in-Chief rail against the Fed, saying it needs to get on the ball and do something about all this inflation.

Well, yes -- at least insofar as the Fed effected all the bond-buying that enabled Congress to pass (and Joey to sign) the additional multitrillion-dollar spending measures that replaced estimated loss wage and salary income several times over.

Perhaps it's useful to ask a couple of "what if" questions.

For instance, what if the Fed begins tightening right into the jaws of the inevitable withdrawal of massive fiscal surge spending? What if demand for durable goods in large swaths of the economy is already weakening? (It is, actually.)

What if tightening pushes the 10y UST yield above 3% during the next 12-18 months? (It's been as high as about 3.2% on a couple of post-GFC occasions.)

That would imply 30-year fixed mortgage rates pushing 5%.

They're already climbing:

https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/ma...rates-02162022

What if this causes the housing market, one of the key drivers of growth during the last two years, to weaken markedly in the face of rising rates?

What if this is the fakest economic "expansion" or "recovery" in US history and simply rests on a foundation of soft sand? (Well, this is surely the most medicated, stimulated economy in memory.)

What if about 20% of S&P 500 companies are essentially "zombies" incapable of handing debt service coverage and still throwing off enough free cash flow to remain viable on a sustained basis in a semi-normalized yield curve environment? (Another fund manager whose opinion I respect put out a note recently saying exactly that.)

That's why I think the probability is very high that within a year the Fed will be under great pressure to pivot back to accommodation as the economy weakens, especially if influential members of Congress start getting upset about a possible market selloff.

(Asset price support is the Fed's tacit "third mandate.")

What if we trade in the current inflation run rate for a big slowdown or even a recession commencing in late 2022 or 2023?

What if middle class and working class Americans are even more unhappy about that?

. Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

I'm afraid all this is even more true today given the Putin-Ukraine debacle. A growing number of private-sector economists are already musing about going on "recession watch."

WTF responded:

This gent was on CNBC today and was wondering similar.

https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/ Originally Posted by WTF

I posted that quote snippet only to point out that this guy is Dave Rosenberg, who posts the excellent "Breakfast with Dave" commentary every weekday morning. In my view, it's some of the best macro- and market commentary out today, and I think just about every institutional investor and fund manager subscribes, whether or not they're generally prone to agree with his take.

And shortly thereafter, Why_Yes_I_Do responded thusly:

Thx for the post. But darn my luck here. I was looking for the "silver lining" in your post but all I'm seeing is cheap rusty pot metal, made in China. Will keep digging around though. Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

Sorry, I don't mean to do the metaphorical equivalent of throwing a skunk into a nice, pleasant garden party. I did recently read a book that might improve one's mood.

https://www.amazon.com/Cloud-Revolut.../dp/1641772301

Very interesting and enjoyable read. The author details the upcoming convergence of a whole panoply of new innovations which promise to create a fresh technology-driven productivity surge. (We sure do need one -- only a period of robust growth over the next decade or so has a snowball's chance of helping us "pay for all this shit.")

Sorry for the interruption. Please return to your regularly scheduled shit-slinging!

.

These assholes will never pay off the TRILLIONS they are racking up.

And if anyone comes a calling for the money, they will look at them and say " We can have 10 nukes in your 10 biggest cities in 30 minutes. Shall we talk about the payment plan I like. "

And the Fed loves to just get their interest payments of fake money. Those in charge of the Fed lust for power not wealth.

These assholes will never pay off the TRILLIONS they are racking up.

And if anyone comes a calling for the money, they will look at them and say " We can have 10 nukes in your 10 biggest cities in 30 minutes. Shall we talk about the payment plan I like. "

And the Fed loves to just get their interest payments of fake money. Those in charge of the Fed lust for power not wealth. Originally Posted by beguilingeyes

not going to happen. first of the 3 major components of the debt, intergovernment borrowing, US held debt by US companies and investors and foreign held debt the smallest is foreign held debt. by far. of the 30 trillion in debt less than 5 trillion tops is held by foreign nations.


the top five holders total only about 3.5 trillion. only Japan and China hold over 1 trillion each and just barely.


they are

1. Japan

Japan is the largest holder of U.S. debt, with $1,304 billion in Treasury holdings as of December 2021, beating out China as the largest holder of U.S. debt.2


2. China

China gets a lot of attention for holding a big chunk of the U.S. government's debt and for good reason, given its rapidly expanding economy. China takes the second spot among foreign holders of U.S. debt with $1,068 bllion


3. United Kingdom

The United Kingdom has increased its holdings in U.S. debt to an eight-year high December 2021 to $647 billion.


4. Ireland

As of December 2021, Ireland holds $334 billion in U.S. debt, which is 4% of foreign debt


5. Luxembourg

Luxembourg is the fifth-largest holder of U.S. debt among foreign countries. As of December 2021, Luxembourg holds $323 billion in U.S. Treasuries


https://www.investopedia.com/article...st-us-debt.asp


first, debt can't be dumped unless it is held for one year regardless of the yield term which is typically 5 years or 10 years to reach maturity. after 1 year then it can be sold on the market, of course if you do that on a 5 or 10 year yield you are barely making back your principle investment with little to no yield. and that is if someone will buy it.


the next largest block is intergovernmental borrowing about 6.5 trillion. the GOV is not going to call that in, probably ever. it represents the intentional overspending by Congress given revenue brought in. unless it becomes a federal crime to spend more than is brought in the assholes in Congress will happily keep overspending on pork barrel bullshit. you can bet on that!


so given 6.5 trillion the GOV loans itself and about 5 trillion at the most being generous held by foreign nations the vast majority of the debt is held by US investors. companies, investment houses like hedge funds and investment funds and even uber wealthy private citizens like Warren Buffet.


that amount is about 18.5 trillion.


so less than 1/3 total is either GOV lending to itself and foreign nations. almost 2/3 nearly 20 trillion is owned by US investors.


if nothing else this should stop any fretting about "foreign nations own too much US Debt" because they really don't own much at all. 5 trillion is being generous. the top 5 only owns 3.5 trillion. who cares about another trillion and change owned by a bunch of small fry nations?

buying debt. I don't get this. why is anyone buying negative money since it has no value???

buying debt. I don't get this. why is anyone buying negative money since it has no value??? Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

what do you mean "negative money"? in Japan maybe but not the US.


Treasurys
TICKER COMPANY YIELD
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury1.176
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury1.746
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury1.95
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury1.997


US treasury notes pay out the yields above on maturity. nothing negative about it.

what do you mean "negative money"? in Japan maybe but not the US.


Treasurys
TICKER COMPANY YIELD
US1YU.S. 1 Year Treasury1.176
US2YU.S. 2 Year Treasury1.746
US5YU.S. 5 Year Treasury1.95
US10YU.S. 10 Year Treasury1.997


US treasury notes pay out the yields above on maturity. nothing negative about it. Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

Which is about 100 times better than current savings account interest rates. Well... until we go parabolic. We might just need a war to distract us from that potential problem. Now where could we find one?

Biden believes it is never his fault. His spending does not equate inflation, the war in Ukraine did.